怎么跟刚相亲对象聊天:花生余:2012全球经济是否与2011如出一辙？2012年01月10日 23:21

花生余:2012全球经济是否与2011如出一辙？
2012年01月10日 23:21
来源：i美股
字号:T|T
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（i美股讯）德意志银行DWS(中国)基金经理人@花生余 先生上周六（1月7日）在雪球财经i美股发表2012年全球经济展望，他表示全球经济疲软时期并没有结束，全球经济增长仍面临着各种风险，但全球经济可能在今年年中实现温和加速增长。
以下是花生余先生英文文章的编译：
“2012年会不会与2011年如出一辙？”---我敢打赌，这一问题在投资者心中投下了阴影。回首过去一年，从阿拉伯之春到日本大地震、泰国洪水，再到两次主权债务危机（欧元区和美国），2011年是地缘政治和自然灾害对全球经济产生重大影响的一年。这种影响从全球商品和消费品价格的飙升可以感觉得到，同时也成为导致全球经济增长放缓的因素之一。全球GDP 增长2010年为3.7％，但预计2011年将不到2.2％。
这就是说，根据最新公布的一系列宏观数据，全球经济疲软时期并没有结束，欧债危机带来的经济增长下行风险和石油供应随时可能受到冲击的风险不可能很快消失。然而，上周公布的12月经济数据表明全球经济向今年年中实现温和加速增长这一目标迈出了一小步。摩根大通全球12月份综合行业产出指数回升至53，为今年3月以来的最高水平，而12月之前的4个月该指数基本没有变化。摩根大通全球12月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为50.8，高于11月的49.7。虽然12月的制造业采购经理人指数仍然低迷，但仍为今年6月以来最高的数值。
此外，全球12月份制造业采购经理人指数中的各个分项指数普遍上升。全球12月份制造业产出分项指数强劲上扬，至52.1，比11月的49.7上升2.4个基点。12月新订单分项指数和就业分项指数上升较为温和，分别比11月上升1.3个基点和1.0个基点。全球12月份制造业采购经理人指数还有相当广泛的地区基础，美国、欧元区、日本和中国的12月制造业采购经理人指数都出现上升。但制造业采购经理人指数在库存分项指数上，还没有给出完全明确的信号。全球12月份制造业库存分项指数下跌0.8个基点，至47.6，低于50荣枯线。但全球12月份制造业采购经理人指数表明，全球制造业的疲软状态开始减弱。华尔街分析师现在预计，2012年第一季度全球工业产出按年率计算将增长近2.5％。
另一方面，全球经济增长的风险依然存在，欧洲采购经理人指数2012年将可能持平或下降。换句话说，欧洲2012年的经济增长不大可能比2011年更好，因该地区的市场面临着两个巨大的不确定性：经济衰退的深度和持续时间，成员国和银行业间相互救助的方式。当然，这两者之间也是相互关联的。数据方面，欧元区12月份经济景气指数下降至93.3，与预期相符，11月时为93.8。欧元区11月份零售额环比下跌0.8％，使欧元区10月、11月这两个月的零售额按年率计算比第三季度下降了2.6％。
而德国11月份工业订单环比下降4.8％，完全抵消了10月份工业订单5%的环比增长。这两个月的工业订单按年率计算比第三季度下降了4.4％，而在这之前第三季度工业订单环比已下降14％。大部分看空市场的经济学家也认为，欧元区2012年将可能只经历温和的经济衰退，各成员国和银行业将互相救助，同时不会显著和持续地提高金融体系的压力。如果这个观点是正确的，这很大程度上是由于欧洲央行更积极地干预带来的。欧洲央行最近几周对主要政策利率和为银行提供流动性支持做出决定，表明其不仅采取积极措施支持实体经济和金融体系，而且在某些领域开始先发制人。为什么欧洲央行除此别无选择，这可从历史的角度来解释。
经济政策决策方面，美联储公布的12月13日货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储对美国经济形势的评估没有什么大的变化。值得注意的是，来自欧债危机的风险仍然严重影响着美联储对经济形势的评估，因为尽管一些经济数据明显改善，但美联储对经济前景仍持谨慎态度。此次会议纪要还同意从2012年1月的货币政策会议开始报告三个方面的新内容：
1）对当前年度第四季度及未来几年的目标联邦基金利率的预测，也将给出利率长期走向的预测。
2）联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)根据对未来经济状况的预测，对可能首次上调目标利率的时间的预测。
3）决定这些评估的关键因素及有关货币政策会议参加者对美联储资产负债表期望方面的定性信息。此外，美联储还可能公布联邦公开市场委员会长期目标和政策策略的声明，该声明可能包含通胀目标。
在太平洋[7.02 -0.71%股吧研报]彼岸，亚洲新兴市场12月份的通胀数据显示了一些分歧。印尼、菲律宾、泰国12月份消费者价格指数（CPI）分别为3.79%、3.53%和4.2%，但它们的升幅出现下跌。消费者价格指数在食品价格带动下，从2010年年底开始一直高位运行，是这次下跌的部分原因。预计2012年的食品和能源价格可能比2011年略微上升，这样2012年的通胀水平可能继续下降。
但韩国和台湾地区的通胀水平的变动趋势与印尼等国迥然不同，它们12月份消费者价格指数分别为4.20％和2.03％，高于之前预期。更温和的通胀水平、实际利率上升和欧洲对经济增长更大的威胁，促使亚洲各国央行对货币政策采取更温和的立场。在12月通胀数据公布后，印尼央行副行长 Hartadi Sarwono 表示，如果需要的话，有进一步降息的空间（2012年第一季度降息25个基点？）。菲律宾央行行长也表示有降息空间。
话虽如此，全球经济复苏面临的风险也正在显现：1）石油价格加速上涨，最终可能超过150美元/桶。这将中断全球经济的复苏，使其重新陷入衰退中。随着全球经济进入温和增长的轨道，油价的突然爆涨可能对全球经济特别有害。但显然，目前中东地缘政治状况仍然非常不稳定。2）美国不合时宜的财政紧缩政策。美国共和党人正在推动实施保守主义的财政政策，一些共和党人主张大幅削减政府开支。这可能使美国经济再次出现萎缩，特别是如果私营部门的增长仍然疲软而脆弱。股票价格将因此受到重挫。3）中国政府失算或对遏止经济疲软无所作为。中国领导人今年将换届，有人担心这是否会影响中国政府采取必要的政策措施，我不认为会，但显然不无风险。
（i美股刘春翻译）
英文全文：
“Will 2012 be like 2011?” --- I bet this is the question casting shadow over investors’ minds. Looking back， from the Arab spring to Tohoku， extreME flooding， and two sovereign debt crises (Euro area + US)， 2011 was a year in which geopolitics and natural disasters left a major mark on the global economy. Their imprint was felt in the spike of global commodity and finished consumer goods prices. They also contributed to a materialSLowdown in global growth. Following a gain of 3.7% (Q4 to Q4) in 2010， global GDP is estimated to have risen a subpar 2.2% in 2011.
That said， based on the latest macro data series， the global soft patch is not over and downside risks related to the Euro area crisis and a possible oil supply shock are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. However， this week’s December data releases represent one small step on the path toward a modest acceleration in the global economy into midyear. Following 4-month of broad stability， the all-industry output index rose to 53 last month， its highest level since March. The most interesting data release this week was global manufacturing PMI， which rose 1.1pt to 50.8 in December. Although the PMI remains depressed， the December reading was the highest since June. Moreover， the increase in the global PMI was broadly distributed across its major components， and both of the leading ratios of new orders to inventory rose decisively last month. The output index rose strongly， gaining 2.4pts to 52.1. The new orders and employment indexes posted more moderate increases of 1.3 points and 1.0 points. The global PMI’s increase also was fairly broadly based by region. PMIs rose in US， Euro area， Japan， and China. Certainly， the PMI is not yet giving an “all clear” signal on inventories. The global index of purchased inventory declined 0.8 points to 47.6， which is below normal for an expansionary economy. But the December global survey suggests that the weakness in global manufacturing is starting to diminish. The street now looks for global IP growth at near 2.5% annualized in 1H12， along with biggest national PMI increases in EM Asia， which accounts for about 25% of the global PMI.
On the other hand， the risks are that the European PMIs would stay flat or decline from their December levels. In other words， 2012 is unlikely to be any better than 2011 for the region as the market faces two huge uncertainties: the depth and duration of the recession， and the means by which sovereigns and banks will be funded on the other. These are of course interrelated. Data wise， Euro area economic sentiment declined five tentHS to 93.3 in December， which was in line with expectations. Euro area retail sales fell 0.8% MoM in November， leaving the Oct/Nov average 2.6% yoy below the 3Q11 level. In addition， German industrial orders dropped 4.8% MoM in Nov， effectively wiping out the 5% MoM jump reported for Oct2011. The average of these two months is now 4.4% yoy below the 3Q11 level， and this decline comes after a 14% QoQ saar decline in 3Q11. Most of the sell side economists’ views are that the region will get through the year with only a mild recession in terms of the outright decline in GDP， and that sovereigns and banks will manage to fund themselves without a significant and sustained increase in the level of financial stress. If this view is correct， it will be due largely to a more active central bank. The ECB’s decisions in recent weeks regarding both the main policy rate and the lIQuidity support to banks suggest not only a more aggressive approach to supporting the real economy and the financial system， but also a more preemptive one. I will diSCuss the reasons for historical perspective that why ECB has no other alternatives.
Policy markers front， the December 13 FOMC meeting minutes show no major shocks in the assessment of US economy， though it is notable that a cautious view of the outlook persists despite visible improvements in some economic data， with risks from Europe clearly weighing heavily in the Fed's thoughts. But the minutes agreed to three new items that will be reported at the January FOMC meeting – 1) the projections of the appropriate level of the target FFTR in the fourth quarter of the current year and the next few calendar years， and over the longer run; 2) the current projections of the likely timing of the first increase in the target rate given their projections of future economic conditions; and 3) an accompanying narrative will describe the key factors underlying those assessments as well as qualitative information regarding participants’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. In addition， the Fed may also release a statement of the FOMC’s LT goals and policy strategy. This statement could contain an inflation target， but I would be surprised if the Fed were to overstep its Congressional mandate by overweighting inflation at the expense of its employment mandate.
Across the ocean， December inflation data in EM Asia show some divergence. CPI for Indonesia (3.79%)， Philippines (3.53%) and Thailand (4.2%) surprised on the downside. The high base effect from end-2010， mainly driven by food prices， was part of the reason for the decline. Inflation is likely to continue easing in 2012， as I expect food and energy prices to average only modestly higher than in 2011. However， the trend is different in Korea (4.20% y) and Taiwan (2.03%)， which are HTE. The combination of more benign inflation， rising real interest rates and a greater threat to growth from the West is pushing Asian central banks into a more dovish stance. After the December inflation data was released， Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Sarwono said there is room to cut rates if needed (a 25bps cut in 1Q12?). The Philippines’ central bank governor also said there is room for rate cuts.
Having said so， the risks to global economy recovery are also emerging --- 1) Oil prices escalating over USD150/bbl. That would choke off the global economy and send it back into recession. With global growth on a softening path， a sudden upward explosion of oil prices could be particularly hurtful for the world economy. Obviously， geopolitical conditions remain very unsettling in the Middle East; 2) the untimely fiscal austerity in US. The Republicans are pushing for fiscal conservatism， and some have argued for draconian cutbacks in government spending. That could bring the US economy back to contraction， especially if the private sector remains weak and fragile. Stock prices would suffer badly; and 3) A miscalculation or inaction by the Chinese government to stem economic weakness. China is in a power transition next year. Could this transition hinder necessary policy actions? I do not think it will， but obviously there is a risk.
（THE END)
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