孕妇能吃羊蝎子火锅吗:认清经济形势 把握调控重点

　　今年的中央经济工作会议全面分析了当前国内外经济形势，深刻阐述了经济运行面临的重大问题，明确提出了明年宏观调控的方向和任务。深入领会中央经济工作会议精神，正确判断当前经济形势，准确把握宏观调控重点，对于做好明年经济工作，保持经济社会发展良好势头具有十分重要的意义。

　　2011年经济社会发展取得显著成绩

　　2011年，面对复杂多变的国内外环境和各种重大挑战，在党中央、国务院的正确领导下，我们牢牢把握科学发展这个主题和加快转变经济发展方式这条主线，实施“十二五”规划，加强和改善宏观调控，经济向好势头进一步巩固，经济社会发展取得了显著成绩。首先，价格水平开始平稳回落，通货膨胀势头得到初步遏制。2010年下半年以来，受到美国长期实行量化宽松货币政策造成的输入性通胀压力、应对国际金融危机时期国内新增信贷规模较大、新出现的成本上升推动因素等的影响，我国居民消费价格水平明显上涨。面对通货膨胀问题，党中央、国务院及时提出把保持价格总水平基本稳定作为宏观调控的首要任务。经过各方面不懈努力，11月份全国居民消费价格总水平（CPI）同比上涨幅度回落到4.2％，已经接近年初制定的4％左右的预期目标。其次，今年前三个季度，我国GDP（国内生产总值）增长速度分别为9.7％、9.5％和9.1％，增速虽然有所放缓，但在世界大国经济中依然居于首位。目前，我国固定资产投资增速保持在25％左右，社会商品零售额增速基本保持平稳，对外贸易一直保持顺差。宏观经济总体保持了平稳较快的增长势头。第三，在物价涨幅开始回落、经济增长仍然保持平稳较快势头的同时，经济结构调整取得了一些积极进展，区域经济发展、城乡居民收入、内需外需构成等结构关系的平衡状况均有所改善。此外，我们在防范和控制房地产市场风险、金融风险和地方财政融资平台潜在风险方面也取得了成效，保障了宏观经济的平稳较快健康发展。

　　综上，对2011年的总体经济形势可以做这样的判断：扩大内需战略方针的有效实施，正在使经济增长逐步由政策刺激向自主增长转变，国民经济继续朝着宏观调控的预期方向发展，呈现增长较快、价格趋稳、效益较好、民生改善的良好态势，实现了“十二五”时期经济社会发展良好开局。能够取得这样的成绩，应归功于党中央、国务院面对国内外错综复杂的经济环境审时度势，加强和改善宏观调控，实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，不断增强调控的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性，为国民经济平稳较快发展提供了根本保证；归功于我们贯彻落实党的十七大及十七大以来历次中央全会精神，注意处理好保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构和管理通胀预期的关系，把保持短期经济增长与实现长期经济社会发展战略目标有机结合起来，积极推进经济结构调整。

　　2012年国内外经济形势严峻复杂

　　世界经济复苏的不稳定性不确定性上升。2011年世界经济饱受美国经济复苏乏力、日本地震海啸核泄漏事故以及欧洲国家主权债务危机影响，各方面对2012年世界经济普遍持比较悲观的态度，国际有影响的经济预测机构相继调低对世界经济增长的预测值。国际经济环境中存在的不稳定性不确定性上升：美国失业率居高不下，经济复苏步履维艰；欧洲主权债务危机愈演愈烈，最终结局如何难以预料。人们的普遍共识是，世界经济下行风险明显增大，全球经济存在二次探底的危险。目前世界经济存在的问题，一是欧美各国财政状况存在不同程度的恶化趋势，财政赤字上升，政府债务暴涨，政府财政紧缩压力加大；二是国际金融风险加大，特别是欧元状况脆弱，使得整个国际金融体系雪上加霜；三是世界经济景气下降，全球贸易量锐减，国际市场需求低迷可能在相当长时期内难以好转，严重影响世界经济复苏。保守的判断是，欧美经济即使不出现衰退，复苏也将是艰难而缓慢的，世界经济将在较长一段时期内处于低迷状态。国际市场萎缩导致我国近来出口增速明显下滑。欧美国家财政金融领域存在的潜在风险，也会对我国经济特别是金融的稳定性形成冲击。

　　国内经济运行出现新情况新变化。当前，我国宏观经济运行出现了新情况新变化，对宏观调控提出了新任务新要求。

　　在物价方面，虽然最近居民消费价格涨幅有所回落，但是保持价格总水平基本稳定的任务依然繁重，不可掉以轻心。第一，农业基础薄弱以及提高农民收入、劳动力成本上升、土地价格上涨、加强环保等影响未来物价上涨的各种成本推动的刚性因素依然存在；第二，欧美各国深陷财政金融困境，必然采取扩张性政策应对危机，我国面临的输入性通胀压力不可低估；第三，我国虽然已经有效控制了流动性过快增加，但货币存量依然较大，形成通胀的可能性仍然存在。因此，我们必须继续认真搞好物价调控，防止物价走势出现反弹，保持价格总水平基本稳定。

[上一篇]　促进战略性新兴产业发展的财税政策

Recognize the economic situation grasp key control　http://www.gmw.cnThe 2011-12-26 08:45:06 sources:People's Daily　　[name:big in small]

　This year the central economic work conference comprehensive analysis of the present situation of domestic and international economic situation, elaborated profoundly the economic operation the facing big problems, and put forward the direction and the macroeconomic regulation next year task.Better understand central economic work conference spirit, judging correctly the current economic situation, an accurate grasp of macroeconomic regulation and control key, next year to do economic work, keep good momentum of economic and social development has very important significance.

　　2011 years of economic and social development has achieved remarkable results

In 2011, facing the complex environment at home and abroad and all kinds of major challenges, the party central committee, the state council under the correct leadership of we firmly grasp scientific development and to speed up the theme transformation of the mode of economic development this strands, the implementation of the "1025" planning, strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, undermined further consolidate the economic momentum, the social economy development have achieved remarkable results.First, the price level began to smooth back, inflation momentum get preliminary control.Since the second half of 2010, the United States by the long-term with quantitative looser monetary policy caused inflation pressure, input sex to deal with the international financial crisis periods in large scale, new domestic credit the rise in the cost of the new push factors influence, China's consumer price level rise apparently.Face the problem of inflation, the party central committee and the state council put forward in time to keep the general price level basic stability as a primary task of macroeconomic control.After the unremitting efforts, China's consumer November general price level (CPI) have risen by 4.2% year-on-year drop back to, already close to make about 4% of the early targets.Second, the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP (GDP) growth rate were 9.7%, 9.5% and 9.1%, though growth slowed in, but in the world powers in the economy still takes the first place.At present, China's fixed asset investment growth remain at around 25%, social commodity retail sales growth basic maintain stable, foreign trade keep surplus.Macro economy maintained steady and fast growth momentum.Third, the rise in prices began to fall and the economic growth still keep fast and steady momentum at the same time, the readjustment of the economic structure made some headway, regional economic development and the income of urban and rural residents, domestic demand structure of foreign demand balance of structural relations are improved.In addition, we prevent and control in the real estate market risk, financial risk and local financial financing platform potential risk made effectiveness, ensure the macroeconomic fast and steady health development.

In conclusion, to the 2011 overall economic situation can do such judgment: the expansion of domestic demand the effective implementation of the strategic policy, is that economic growth by policies to stimulate gradually grow independently change, the national economy continue to move in the direction of macroeconomic regulation expected development, the present is growing rapidly, prices stabilised, benefit is better, improve the livelihood of the people a good situation, realized the "1025" period of good start of economic and social development.To get the results, the party central committee and the state council should be attributed to face the intricacies of the economic environment at home and abroad and sized up the situation, strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and continuously enhance the regulation of detail, flexibility and forward-looking, for national fast yet steady economic development provided the basic guarantee;Due to our implementation of the CPC and 17 since all previous central all the spirit, pay attention to deal with keep fast yet steady economic development, the adjustment of economic structure and the relationship between the management of inflation expectations, to keep short-term economic growth and achieve long-term economic social development strategic objective organic combine, promoting economic restructuring.

　　In 2012, domestic and international economic situation complex

The world economic recovery of stability uncertainty.In 2011, the world economy has the United States economic recovery fatigue, Japan seismic tsunami nuclear leakage accident and European countries sovereign debt crisis, and the parties face 2012 world economy with more pessimistic attitude common, international influential economic forecasts institutions have to cut world economic growth of predictive value.The international economic environment of existing in the stability of uncertainty: the unemployment rate remains high, economic recovery are difficult;The European sovereign debt crisis increasingly fierce, the final ending is unpredictable.The common understanding is the people, the world economy downside risks are increased, the global economy exist two times the risk of the agent.The current world economy, the existing problems in the United States and Europe is a financial situation there exists different degree of deterioration, the budget deficit rose, government debt boom, the government fiscal tightening pressure increase;2 it is the international financial risk increase, especially the euro status fragile, make the whole to the international financial system;Three is the world economic boom down, global trade volume declined, the international market demand downturn may be in a quite long period of time is reduced, the serious influence the world economic recovery.Conservative judgment is, Europe and the United States economy even without the recession, recovery will be difficult and slow, the world economy will in a long period in a recession.The international market atrophy leads to a significant slowdown in export growth in our country recently.The European and American countries financial field of existing potential risks, will also on our country's economic especially the stability of financial form the impact.

The domestic economy operation appear new situation new changes.At present, China's macroeconomic operation appeared new, new changes of macroeconomic regulation and control put forward new task new requirements.