佛山l铝材批发市场:中国加速推进人民币国际化

2011年 04月 20日 11:25中国加速推进人民币国际化
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中国正加速促进人民币更加深入世界市场，推进一系列以人民币为中心的措施打造新的金融生态系统。

周二，香港一位货币管理高级官员接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，中国央行正在“积极考虑”出台新规定，以便离岸筹集的人民币资金更容易回流到中国内地。

Reuters中国对其资本账户保持严格控制，一些官员表示担心境外人民币交易过多会导致投机商扰乱国内货币体系的稳定。不过尽管如此，中国和香港政府正在推进多项计划，促进人民币更紧密的融入全球市场。规定的改动将会消除威胁到在香港及内地以外其他地区兴起的人民币市场快速增长的瓶颈。目前，任何数额较大的外币或人民币进入中国都需要获得中国政府审批。这一制度旨在严格管理汇率以及防止利用人民币进行投机行为。

新规将会使香港的人民币债券市场更有吸引力，使得全球企业更容易接触到这些市场的廉价融资，然后再用这些钱来拓展它们在中国的业务。这些新规定还会促使人民币更接近市场决定价值的状态，就像美元、欧元和其他主要货币一样。

不过，尽管许多人认为中国会继续进行改革，实现人民币完全自由兑换仍任重道远，中国可能会选择坚持有限兑换制度。

最终，人民币在境外更广泛的使用会重新界定全球外汇市场的力量制衡，并且从更广泛的经济领域来看，随着世界其他地区和国家开始进行更多人民币资产的交易、并以人民币替代美元结算与中国的账单，自二战以来的全球标准也会得到改变。

西方和中国企业将能够以人民币发行债券或股票，并且无需兑换成美元、欧元或其他任何货币就能将收益投资中国，而在过去，他们在海外筹集资金后必须进行兑换。

最终，对人民币的需求增加会减少对美元的需求，拉高美国利率以及从联邦政府到房主等所有人的借贷成本。

周一，官方新闻机构公布中国第一季度对外贸易的7%是以人民币交易的，远远高于上年同期的0.5%，这进一步表明中国正在减少对美元的依赖。

对美元长期前景的担忧对中国的雄心大略带来一丝紧迫感。中国目前持有超过3万亿美元的外汇储备，其中大多是美元。

周一，标准普尔（Standard & Poor's）将美国国债评级展望下调至负面，持有美元的风险随之凸现出来，也使全球市场紧张不已。消息一出，内地和香港股市均应声下跌。

外交部发言人洪磊在外交部网站发表的一份简短声明中说，希望美国政府切实采取负责任的政策措施，保障投资者的利益。美元贬值损害了中国巨大美元储备的价值。

德意志银行（Deutsche Bank AG）首席中国经济学家马骏（JunMa）认为，这种变化的影响会很大，他提到中国去年吸引到了1000亿美元的外商直接投资。他说，即使外商直接投资中的一小部分是用人民币，那也将会是一个很大的数目。他认为新规可能会在几个月内出台。

马骏调查的44个跨国公司中，大部分公司说若规定允许，他们会用人民币在中国投资。离岸筹集人民币资金会减少货币风险并允许他们用在香港的低成本融资替代在内地的高成本贷款，两地的利率分别为6%以上和2.6%左右。

中国对其资本账户保持严格控制，一些官员表示担心境外人民币交易过多会导致投机商扰乱国内货币体系的稳定。

不过尽管如此，中国和香港政府正在推进多项计划，促进人民币更紧密的融入全球市场。

本周，香港的银行家将完成境外首只人民币股票发售的融资。汇贤房地产投资信托基金(Hui Xian Real Estate Investment Trust)将筹集高达112亿元的资金。该基金由亿万富翁李嘉诚控股，依托于他在北京的房地产资产。

香港交易所行政总裁在采访中说，他希望年底之前能有更多此类交易。

与此同时，据知情人士说，新加坡的货币监管官员正与他们的中国同行举行会谈，希望建立在新加坡扩大人民币交易的基础设施。

香港金融管理局（Hong Kong Monetary Authority）副总裁彭醒棠（Peter Pang）在周二接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，香港官员正在与内地相关官员磋商允许外商使用人民币在中国直接投资事宜。

这一改变会消除已经发行离岸人民币债券的公司提出的最大反对意见：将筹集的资金引入中国花的时间太长，因为中国没有允许外商以人民币进行投资的整套法规，相反是按照具体案例具体分析的形式进行的。

去年，从麦当劳（McDonald's Corp.）到亚洲开发银行（Asian DevelopmentBank）等多家公司的发行商在香港发售以人民币计价的“点心债券”，筹集到360亿元的资金，是2009年筹集资金的两倍多。这些证券和汇贤房地产投资信托基金一样，旨在利用已经积累大量人民币的投资者对回报日益强烈的渴望。

自政府出台措施允许人民币更自由的在香港进行交易以及允许以人民币结算交易以来，香港的人民币存款额已经激增至4070亿元。

全球投资者将目光投向人民币是由于他们普遍认为，人民币至少会在未来几年对美元升值。

自去年夏天中国取消人民币与美元事实上挂钩的制度后，人民币兑美元升值了约4%，之前人民币兑美元汇率两年未变。有关离岸人民币证券的投资需求旺盛但供应不足，导致点心债券的收益异常地低。

China Speeds Yuan Push

China is accelerating efforts to push its currency deeper into worldmarkets, racing ahead with a series of moves toward a new financialecosystem with the yuan at its center.

A senior Hong Kongmonetary official told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that China'scentral bank is 'actively considering' new rules that would make iteasier to bring yuan funds raised offshore back onto the Chinesemainland.

Changing those rules would remove a choke pointthreatening the fast-growing market for the Chinese currency─also knownas the renminbi─that is developing in Hong Kong and elsewhere outsidemainland China's borders. Currently, Chinese officials have to approvebringing any sizeable amount of currency─foreign and domestic─into thecountry. That system is aimed at closely managing the exchange rate andpreventing speculation in the yuan.

New rules would make iteasier and more attractive for global companies to access cheap fundingin Hong Kong's yuan-bond markets and then use that money to boost theirChina business. They also bring the currency closer to a point where itsvalue might be determined by the market, as are the values of thedollar, euro and all other major currencies.

But while manypeople believe China will continue to institute changes, fullconvertibility could be a long way off, and China may opt to stick withlimited convertibility.

Eventually, wider use of the yuan outsideChina could redefine the balance of power in global currency markets,and in the broader economy, as the rest of the world begins trading moreyuan-based assets and settling its bills with China in renminbi insteadof the U.S. dollar, the global standard since the end of World War II.

Westernand Chinese companies would be able to issue bonds or stocks in yuanand invest the proceeds in China without having to convert into or outof dollars, euros or any other currency along the way, as they've had toin the past when raising money abroad.

Ultimately, greaterdemand for renminbi could lessen demand for the dollar, raising U.S.interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone from the federalgovernment to home owners.

Further evidence that Beijing isreducing its reliance on the dollar came Monday, when a state-run newsagency reported that 7% of China's foreign trade in the first quarterwas conducted in yuan, up from 0.5% a year earlier.

Concernsabout the dollar's longer-term prospects contribute a sense of urgencyto China's ambitions. China now holds more than $3 trillion in foreignexchange reserves, most of that in dollars.

The risks of dollarexposure were underscored when Standard & Poor's cut its outlook onU.S. government debt to 'negative' Monday, unnerving global markets.Shares in both mainland China and Hong Kong fell on the news.

In abrief statement on the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website, ministryspokesman Hong Lei called on Washington to take 'responsible policiesand measures' to protect the interest of investors. A declininggreenback hurts the value of China's vast dollar holdings.

Theimpact of such a change could be significant. Jun Ma, chief Chinaeconomist for Deutsche Bank AG, noted that last year China attracted$100 billion in foreign investment. 'If only a small percentage of thatis in RMB, that will be a huge number,' he said. Mr. Ma said he believedthe new rules were 'likely to come out in months.'

Most of 44multinational companies Mr. Ma surveyed said they would use yuan toinvest in China if regulations allowed. Raising yuan offshore wouldreduce currency risks and would allow them to replace high-cost loans inChina, where interest rates are over 6%, with low-cost financing fromHong Kong, where interest rates are around 2.6%.

China maintainstight control of its capital account, and some officials have expressedconcern that excessive trade in the yuan outside China could allowspeculators to destabilize the domestic monetary system.

Butdespite that, officials in China and Hong Kong are pushing ahead withseveral plans that weave China's currency more closely into the globalmarketplace.

This week, bankers in Hong Kong are finishing up thefund-raising for the first yuan-denominated stock to be sold outsideChina. The Hui Xian Real Estate Investment Trust, controlled bybillionaire Li Ka-shing and backed by his Beijing property assets, israising up to 11.2 billion yuan ($1.7 billion).

In an interview,the chief executive of Hong Kong's stock exchange said he's hopefulseveral more such listings can take place before the end of the year.

Monetaryofficials in Singapore, meanwhile, are holding talks with theircounterparts in China in the hopes of setting up the infrastructure toexpand trading of the yuan in the Southeast Asian city-state, accordingto people familiar with the situation.

In an interview Tuesday,Peter Pang, deputy chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority,told the Journal that Hong Kong officials were in discussions with theirmainland Chinese counterparts to allow foreign direct investment intoChina using the yuan.

That change would eliminate one of thebiggest objections raised by companies that have issued offshore yuandebt: It takes too long to get the money they raise into China becauseChina has no set rules to allow foreign investment in renminbi. Instead,it's done on a case-by-case basis.

Last year, issuers rangingfrom McDonald's Corp. to the Asian Development Bank soldyuan-denominated 'dim sum bonds' in Hong Kong, raising 36 billion yuan,more than double the amount raised in 2009. These securities, like theHui Xian REIT, are aimed at tapping a growing thirst for returns frominvestors who are already accumulating large sums of yuan.

Sincetaking steps allowing the yuan to be freely traded in Hong Kong andallowing trade settlement in yuan, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong haveballooned to 407 billion yuan.

Global investors are drawn to theyuan by a widespread belief the currency will appreciate against thedollar for at least the next several years.

It has risen about 4%against the dollar since China abandoned a de facto peg last summerthat had kept its dollar exchange rate unchanged for two years. Highdemand and low supply of securities in which to invest this offshoreyuan have kept yields on dim sum bonds unusually low.