凛として时雨北京:欧元成套利交易新宠 Euro slides as dealers back dollar on growth

The start of the year has heralded a substantial shift in foreign exchange markets, with riskier currencies no longer trading as one. As a result, the euro is looking increasingly isolated.

随着高风险货币的走势出现分化，新年的开端已预示着外汇市场将要出现一轮重大变化。其结果就是，欧元看上去正变得越来越“孤立”。

The single currency has fallen to 16-month lows against the dollar and is lagging behind other currencies. Indeed, some analysts believe it is becoming an attractive alternative to the dollar as a funding currency, with investors borrowing euros to fund investment in higher-yielding assets in a so-called “carry trade”.

欧元兑美元汇率已跌至16个月低点，兑其它货币也纷纷走低。的确，有些分析师认为，就融资货币的角色而言，欧元正渐渐成为富有吸引力的美元替代品。在所谓“套利交易”中，投资者借入欧元，为投资高收益率资产融资。

For much of last year, currency markets were in the grip of the so-called “risk-on, risk-off” trade. When investors were feeling confident and risk was “on”, they sold the dollar and bought virtually any other currency including the euro, the Australian dollar and the South African rand.

去年大部分时间里，外汇市场一直受控于所谓的“追逐风险和规避风险”交易。当投资者充满信心时，他们开始追逐风险，抛售美元，买入其它几乎任何币种，包括欧元、澳元乃至南非兰特。

When fears over a euro collapse intensified, the US dollar was the main beneficiary. Counter-intuitively, the dollar fell on positive economic data from the US, a trend that has been apparent since the collapse of Lehman Brothers heightened the role of fear as a driver of markets.

而当对欧元崩盘的担忧加剧时，美元则成为主要受益者。与直觉相悖的是，在美国公布了利好经济数据后，美元反而下跌。自雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭凸显出恐慌情绪所发挥的市场推手作用之后，这一趋势已十分明显。

There are signs that this pattern is coming to an end.

一些迹象表明，这种情况就要走到尽头。

The Australian dollar, typically an indicator of global growth, has risen 2 per cent against the US dollar in the past three weeks. By contrast, the euro has fallen nearly 5 per cent against the Australian dollar to historic lows. That trend is reflected in other currencies linked to global growth and commodity demand, including the New Zealand and Canadian dollars.

通常被视为全球经济增长指针的澳元，过去三周兑美元汇率上涨2%。相比之下，欧元兑澳元下跌近5%，至历史低点。这一趋势在与全球增长及大宗商品需求相关的其它币种中也得到了体现，包括新西兰元和加拿大元。

Analysts argue that currencies could be moving into a new trading pattern, with the euro set to underperform when risk is on.

分析师认为，外汇市场将出现一种新的交易模式，当投资者追逐风险时，欧元的表现将会弱于大盘。

One reason for this is the improving mood on the US economy. Last week, two sets of better than expected jobs data in the US sent the dollar higher. As recently as three weeks ago, figures that indicated an improvement in the US labour market – with fewer people applying for unemployment benefits – caused the euro to rise against the dollar.

之所以如此，原因之一在于市场对美国经济的看法更为乐观。上周出炉的两组就业数据均强于预期，美元受此影响走高。而就在三周前，表明美国劳动力市场出现改善的数据——申请失业救济人数减少——却推动欧元兑美元汇率上扬。

But expectations for monetary easing in Europe and the US have now diverged. Many analysts expect the European Central Bank will cut rates further this year. The ECB’s so-called long-term refinancing operation – in which it lent a record €489bn to European banks last month – has been interpreted as a form of “quantitative easing”, injecting extra liquidity into the system and helping to weaken the euro.

不过，在是否将施行货币宽松的问题上，人们对欧洲和美国的看法如今也出现了分歧。许多分析师都预计欧洲央行(European Central Bank)今年将进一步下调利率。欧洲央行所谓的长期再融资操作——它上月利用这种操作向欧洲各银行的放贷，达到创纪录的4890亿欧元——被理解成一种“定量宽松”的形式，向银行业注入额外的流动性，并帮助压低欧元汇率。

Investors are speculating that a third round of QE in the US is less likely as the outlook for its economy improves. There are signs in recent quarterly Federal Reserve data that US investors are repatriating assets from overseas. If investors choose to invest at home this year, that would help strengthen the dollar.

投资者猜测，随着美国经济前景的改善，美国出台第三轮定量宽松政策的可能性已有所降低。美联储(Federal Reserve)最近公布的季度数据显示，美国投资者正将资产从海外转回国内。如果投资者选择今年在国内进行投资，将有助于推高美元。

“A swing back in favour of US markets will remove the downward pressure the greenback has felt from a decade of dollar diversification,” says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, currency analyst at UBS. “Instead, America’s currency may experience a regime shift back to the 1990s when bullish investors sought US rather than foreign assets when markets rallied.”

“投资者对美国市场的重新青睐，将缓解美元由于十年来的美元资产多元化而面临的下行压力，”瑞士银行的外汇分析师曼苏尔?毛希丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)表示，“美元可能会重新经历上世纪90年代的情形：那时当市场飙升时，看涨人士会购入美国资产，而不是海外资产。”

Central banks may also be more wary of diversifying into euros. Emerging market central banks have been moving out of dollars in recent years and into other currencies, with the euro one of the main beneficiaries. Figures indicate that this diversification slowed down in the third quarter of last year as central bankers fretted over the troubled eurozone. Dollar holdings rose slightly to more than 61 per cent for those central banks that report their holdings – China does not – while euro holdings fell, according to data released at the end of December by the International Monetary Fund.

而对于将欧元列为多元化对象的问题，各中央银行可能同样也会更为谨慎。近年来，新兴市场央行一直在“退出”美元，同时购入其它币种，这其中欧元便是最大的受益者之一。数据显示，去年第三季度，这种多元化趋势放慢了脚步，因为央行官员们对麻烦不断的欧元区感到头疼不已。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)去年12月底公布的数据，在已公布外汇持有情况的央行中（中国未公布），美元占据的比例小幅升至逾61%，欧元的比重则出现了下滑。

Another important factor pushing the euro lower is, ironically, the lessening fear that the single currency will break apart. Analysts have long argued that the euro is overvalued, with purchasing power parity figures suggesting it should be closer to $1.20. The euro has until recently remained high: few investors wanted to take a position on either recovery or meltdown.

具有讽刺意味的是，推动欧元走低的另一个重要因素在于，对于欧元解体的担忧得到了缓解。长期以来，分析师一直认为欧元被高估，购买力平价数字显示，欧元汇率应该更接近于1.20美元。直到最近，欧元一直保持着高位运行：很少有投资者愿意为经济复苏或是崩盘建立头寸。

Analysts believe the ECB and Europe’s politicians will be happy to see the euro fall. Such a move would be likely to boost exports and growth in the euro area.

分析师相信，欧洲央行和欧洲的政治家们将乐于看到欧元下跌。这或许会提振欧元区的出口和经济增长。

As such, it could become more attractive to investors as a funding currency for the carry trade. In fact, the recent falls in the euro against commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar could be evidence that investors are already using it to fund investment in risky assets elsewhere.

如此一来，作为进行套利交易的融资货币，欧元在投资者眼中将更具吸引力。事实上，近日欧元兑澳元等大宗商品货币走低就表明：投资者已经在利用欧元，为投资其它地区的风险性资产进行融资。

Stacy Williams, head of foreign currency quantitative strategy at HSBC, offers an alternative explanation: the euro could simply be finding a weaker level. Once it has lost some of its value, it could continue to move in line with other “risk on” currencies.

汇丰(HSBC)外汇定量策略负责人斯泰西?威廉斯(Stacy Williams)给出了另一种解读：欧元只是在下探一个更低的水平。一旦欧元汇率跌到一定程度，它将继续与其它“风险”货币保持一致走势。

The shift in correlations between the euro and other currencies has only just begun, so it is too early to draw hard conclusions. But Mr Williams says: “If this is the start of a change in the way the euro and the dollar trade, this is what it would look like.”

欧元与其它货币的联动关系转变才刚刚开始，因此，现在给出确切结论还为时过早。不过，威廉斯表示：“如果这是欧元和美元走势出现变化的开始，那么它看起来是什么样，就是什么样。”