鱼塘星音乐第二季冠军:利率市场化时机成熟了吗？

    对于利率市场化，瞻前顾后地权衡最佳时机或许并不重要，最重要的是存款保险、退出机制等准备工作。换言之，只要准备工作就绪，改革随时都可展开。

　　中央经济工作会议提出，要深化利率市场化改革和汇率形成机制改革。央行近日发布的《2011年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》也明确指出，继续加强金融市场基准利率体系建设，引导金融机构加强利率定价机制建设，积极探索进一步推进利率市场化的有效途径。在近期央行党委中心组召开的专题会上，周小川表示，要继续深化金融体制改革，推动金融市场规范发展，稳步推进利率市场化改革。

　　现在是推动利率市场化的恰当时机吗？我认为，对于利率市场化，瞻前顾后地权衡最佳时机或许并不重要，最重要的是存款保险、退出机制等准备工作。换言之，只要准备工作就绪，改革随时都可展开。利率市场化的前期工作有可能在明年取得一些进展。

　　从现实层面上来看，推动利率市场化有迫切性。这种迫切性主要体现在三个方面。

　　一是银行业在目前固定利率规则下，其盈利的确比较高，无论是理论界还是业界，都认为银行的高盈利与利率的相关性非常强。而利率市场化可以提高银行业盈利能力的市场化水平，促使其从传统借贷业务向中间业务发展，增强银行业的核心竞争力。

　　二是存款理财化倾向很明显，存款理财化意味着由于利率没有放开，银行没有手段来更好地维护储户，使得银行存款被流失。这就是市场化没有推进带来的恶果。

　　三是当前民间金融的泛滥。这跟体制内和体制外利差非常大是直接相关的。因为“正门”开得太小，从金融学原理上来讲，低利率必然会导致资金的超额需求等问题，体制内无法满足则必然寻找体制外的资金。

　　（郭田勇 作者系中央财经大学中国银行业研究中心主任）

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For interest rate marketization, have to weigh the best time perhaps is not important, the most important is to deposit insurance, exit mechanism, ready to work.In other words, as long as the preparation is ready, reform ready to begin.

The central economic work conference to deepen the market-oriented interest rate reform and the formation mechanism of exchange rate reform.The central bank recently released "in the third quarter of 2011 China's monetary policy implementation report also explicitly pointed out that, continue to strengthen financial market benchmark interest rates system construction, and guide financial institutions to strengthen the construction of interest rate pricing mechanism, actively explore further interest rate marketization in an effective way.The central bank in recent ZhongXinZu party committee a themed conference, zhou xiaochuan said, want to continue to deepen the reform of the financial system, and promote the development of financial market standard, advance steadily interest rate marketization reform.

Now is the right time to promote market-oriented interest rate?I think, for interest rate marketization, have to weigh the best time perhaps is not important, the most important is to deposit insurance, exit mechanism, ready to work.In other words, as long as the preparation is ready, reform ready to begin.The early work of the liberalization of interest rate may make some progress in the next year.

From the realistic level to see, and promote the interest rate marketization is urgent.This kind of urgency mainly in three aspects.

One is the banking industry in the fixed interest rate rules, its earnings really is higher, whether theory or industry, they think the bank high earnings and interest rate correlation was very strong.And market-oriented interest rate can improve the banking profitability marketization level, and urges the traditional lending business from the middle business development and enhance the core competitiveness of the banking industry.

Two is to deposit financial tendency obviously, deposits of financial management that because interest rates no release, Banks had no means to better safeguard savers, make bank deposits was lost.This is not promoting the consequences of marketization brings.

Three is the proliferation of private finance.With this system of and the system is very big interest spread is directly related to the.Because "main gate" open is too small, from finance principle terms, low interest rates will lead to the capital to excess demand, system of can't satisfy you must find the money system.

The author is TianYong guo (The central university of finance and economics, director of the China banking research center)