易宪容：明年经济走向的三大焦点

2011年12月15日09:18    

 

　　中央经济工作会议已经召开，内容丰富，意义重大，需要我们认真学习，深刻领会，切实把思想集中统一到中央对形势的科学判断上来。其中受关注的内容至少有三大焦点。

　　第一是“保增长”。因为2012年国际经济环境不确定性增强，全球经济衰退的风险极大，再加上国内经济增长放缓，出口增长下降及CPI开始回落等，保增长有可能成为2012年政府经济工作的首要问题。不过，保增长可能不会如2009年那样促使经济增长出现V形反弹，而是让经济增长步入持续稳定增长轨道，会促进产业结构调整，把经济增长目标放在改善民生要务上，放在适度增长的轨道上。

　　第二是“实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，保持宏观经济政策的连续性与稳定性”。这表示明年的经济政策工作重点会求“稳”，其重心为稳健的货币政策。

　　在过去的10年里，有7年的基调是实施稳健的货币政策，但每年的具体实际操作都有分别。那明年“稳”的内涵是什么？

　　首先，2012年的货币政策，M2增速和银行信贷增速都会比2011年有所放松。2011年的信贷增长预计不会超过7.5万亿。在国内信贷饥渴症十分严重的情况下，这样的信贷增速一定会让企业及整个市场感觉紧。2011年的M2增长在13%，远低于2011年的GDP与CPI之和的增速。因此，在一定程度上，2012年会改变这种状态。比如，明年GDP增长为8%，CPI增长为4%，那么银行信贷增长预计会达到8.2万亿左右。

　　可见，“稳健”只是让信贷增长保持在一个比较适宜的范围内，而不会出现2009年那种4万亿财政投入及9.6万亿的信贷增长。

　　还有，尽管经济增长放缓、国际市场大宗商品价格下降及CPI回落，让国内通胀压力放缓，但在全球央行联手向市场注资、中国第二次价格闯关（即资源价格改革）、中国经济结构调整及工资长期上涨等趋势下，政府防通胀的任务很难松解。如果货币政策又突然逆转，那新一轮通胀又可能开始。因此，保持对国内通胀的足够警惕，也将是2012年货币政策“稳”字重要内涵。

　　其次，“稳健”还应表现为货币政策调整回归到常态。所谓“常态”，更主要强调的应是货币政策的中性。也就是说，面对全球经济困境，一方面我们要面对下落的CPI，政府要保持足够的警惕，排除通胀死灰复燃的可能性；一方面又要面对经济下行风险加大后（如12月官方PMI下调至49点，数年来首次下探到经济荣枯线之下），借由稳定的货币政策加大市场流动性释放，降低明年上半年经济增长下行的风险。因此，2012年稳健的货币政策内涵，有可能是银根调控由2011年的中性偏紧转向中性偏松的实际操作。不过，货币政策的常态化涵义是中性。

　　此外，“稳健”还将表现在货币政策工具的转向上。当前金融市场上的不少问题都可能出在政府对金融市场过度管制上。比如说，对银行信贷规模管制及价格管制，就必然导致国内银行业的竞争不是放在对信贷风险的定价上，而是放在信贷规模扩张上。在这样的运作机制下，不仅商业银行信贷规模受到货币政策影响极大，而且货币政策的任何小的异动，都容易造成市场的巨大反应。因此，从我的理解来看，货币政策的“稳”更重要的是要理顺当前国内金融市场扭曲的价格机制问题，让过度管制的利率逐渐市场化。因此，存准率下降不仅在于现有的市场为其创造了条件（如外汇占款负增长），而且也是完善金融市场扭曲的价格机制的必由之路。也就是说，存款准备金率下降是2012年一种必然趋势，但存款准备金率不仅仅在于增加市场流动性，更重要的是为商业银行风险定价提供更多的弹性空间，改变当前国内银行体系以信贷规模竞争为主的格局。

　　三是房地产宏观调控态度的坚决性。对此市场应该有一个清楚的认识。因为，从房地产商及地方政府的角度来理解，当前房地产市场在朝不利他们的方向发展，而这个方向正好与“保增长”有冲突。因此，他们希望房地产政策如2003年及2008年那样出现逆转，但中央对房地产调控的决心让这些期望落空了。其实，政府为何对楼市宏观调控如此坚决，关键是中央高层对房地产当前所面临问题可能对未来社会经济发展的巨大风险有了清楚的认识，希望坚决挤出房地产泡沫为未来经济长期稳定发展创造条件。

　　易宪容（中国社科院金融研究所研究员）

YiXianRong: next year to three focus of the economy

December 15, 2011 09:18    Source:Jinghua times     Cell phone watch the news

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The centraleconomicWork has held the meeting, rich in content, is of great significance, we need to study hard, a deep understanding of, and concentrate his thoughts to the central united of the situation up scientific judgment.One popular content at least three big focus.

The first is "the growth".Because in 2012 the international economic environment uncertainty enhancement, global economic risk of recession is great, plus domestic economic growth slowed, export growth dropped and CPI fell, the growth was likely to be in 2012 the government economic work the most important problem.However, the growth may not be as it did in 2009 economic growth to appear v-shaped rebound, but for economic growth steady growth into orbit, and will promote the adjustment of industrial structure, economic development aim at improving the people's livelihood priority, and on a moderate growth track.

The second is "the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, keep the macroeconomic policy continuity and stability".This means that next year's economic policy emphasis will be working for "stable", the center of gravity for the steady monetary policy.

In the past 10 years, there are seven years of fundamental key is implementing the steady monetary policy, but every year of the practice of operation are respectively.The next year the connotation of "stable"??? What???

First of all, 2012 years of monetary policy, M2 growth andbankCredit growth will have to relax than in 2011.2011 years of credit growth is not expected to more than 7.5 trillion.In domestic credit is very hungry very severe cases, such credit growth will make enterprise and the whole market feel tight.2011 M2 growth at 13%, far less than 2011 years the rate of growth of GDP and the sum of the CPI.So, in a way, 2012 change this state.For example, 8% GDP growth next year, CPI growth is 4%, then the bank credit growth is expected to reach 8.2 trillion or so.

Visible, "robust" just let credit growth remains in a more suitable scope, and won't appear in 2009 that 4 trillion financial investment and 9.6 trillion credit growth.

And, though slowing economic growth, international market commodity prices drop and CPI fell back, let the domestic inflation pressure is slow, but in the global market with the central bank to capital injection, China's second time through security prices (i.e., resource price reform), China's economic structure adjustment and pay higher long-term tendency, the government against inflation task is hard to loose solution.If monetary policy and sudden reversal, that a new round of inflation and may begin.Therefore, keep on the alert for domestic inflation, also will be 2012 monetary policy "stable" word important connotation.

Second, "robust" should also be performance for monetary policy adjustment to return to normal.The so-called "normal", more emphasis should be neutral monetary policy.That is, face the global economic situation, on the one hand, we have to face the whereabouts of the CPI, government to keep enough alert, ruled out the possibility of resurgent inflation;On the one hand and to face economic downside risks after increase (such as December official PMI down to 49 points for years, first dip below economic RongKu under line), borrows by stable monetary policy increase market liquidity release, reduce economic growth in the first half of next year the downside risk.Thus, in 2012 the steady monetary policy connotation, it may be that by 2011 the monetary control neutral tight to neutral partial loose actual operation.However, monetary policy of the normality of the implication is neutral.

In addition, the "healthy" will also displays in monetary policy tool on the steering.The current financial markets may be out many problems in the financial market over control of the government.For example, the scale of bank credit control and price controls, it inevitably lead to domestic banking competition is not on credit risk on pricing, but in size of credit expansion.In this operation mechanism, not only commercial bank credit by monetary policy affects great scale, and monetary policy of any small moved, are easy to cause the vast market reaction.Therefore, from my understanding to see, monetary policy "stable" more important is to rationalize the current domestic financial market distortions of the price mechanism, make excessive interest rates gradually to the control of the market economy.Therefore, put down the accuracy is not only the existing market for its created the conditions (such asForeign exchangeCombines negative growth), but also improve the financial market distortions of the price mechanism/cost.That is, the deposit reserve rate is an inexorable trend in 2012, but the deposit reserve rate is not only increase market liquidity, more important is for commercial Banks to provide more flexible pricing risk space, change the current domestic bank system to credit scale competition primarily pattern.

Three isroomReal estate macro regulation of aggressive attitude.This market should have a clear understanding.Because, from real estate business and local government view, the current real estate market at the king's unfavorable their direction, and the direction as it happens and "protect the growth" conflict.Therefore, they hope to real estate policies such as in 2003 and 2008 that reversed, but the central to the real estate regulation are determined to make these hopes for.In fact, why did the government about the housing macro regulation so determined, the key is the central high on real estate are facing problems may to the future society of the economic development of the huge risk have a clear understanding, hope resolutely extrusion real estate bubble economy for the future long-term stable development create conditions.

YiXianRong (China academy of financial researcher at the institute)(editor: NieCong responsibility laugh