陕西坑全文:2012年上半年中国股市将会上涨

2012年上半年中国股市将会上涨      引自 库尔茨，野村控股

(Updates with RBS from fourth paragraph.)

第四段最新消息来自苏格兰皇家银行（RBS）

12月7日（布隆伯格）-- 根据野村控股亚洲区首席股票策略师麦克库尔茨的判断，中国股票有望于2012年上半年反弹，目前中国股票市场是亚洲最便宜的。

他看好中国的金融、能源和原材料公司，这类公司在市场中的交易价格只有其长期均值的67%，这位策略师今天在吉隆坡的报告中指出。野村在2010年《机构投资者》杂志的中国市场研究投票中排名第一。

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- China's equities will rally in the first half of 2012 as the stock market is among the cheapest in Asia, according to Michael Kurtz, chief Asian equity strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc.

He favors Chinese financial, energy and material companies in a market that is trading at a 33 percent discount to its long-term average, the strategist told reporters in Kuala Lumpur today. Nomura was ranked No. 1 for China research in a 2010 poll by Institutional Investor magazine.

“A lot of the pain in the first and second quarters appears to have been already embedded into equity prices,” Kurtz said. “Investors should be opportunistically taking advantage of the weakness in the market to add risks to their portfolio earlier in 2012.”

“很多第一和第二季度的痛苦已经包含在股票的价格之中，”库尔茨说。“投资者应该看准时机在2012年早些时候趁着弱势市场的机会在他们的投资组合中加入一些风险。”

Nomura joins Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS AG in predicting gains for the Shanghai Composite Index after the benchmark measure slumped 17 percent in 2011. Stocks have fallen for a second year after policy makers raised interest rates and banks' reserve-requirement ratios to curb inflation, driving down the Shanghai gauge's estimated price earnings to 11.1 times, compared with a six-year average of 18.3 times, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

野村控股与苏格兰皇家银行集团和瑞士银行共同预测，上证综合指数在2011年阴跌17%之后将会上涨。自从政策制定者们提高利率和银行存款准备金率以控制通货膨胀以来，股市已经连续第二年下跌，导致上海市场总体估计PE在11.1倍左右，相对而言，根据布隆伯格编纂的每周数据，6年的平均估值为18.3倍。

Kurtz forecast the People's Bank of China will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in the first quarter of next year and lower the reserve-requirement ratio by 200 basis points for all of 2012. China announced on Nov. 30 that it will reduce the amount of cash banks must set aside as reserves for the first time since 2008 as Europe's debt crisis threatens exports and growth.

库尔茨预测，中国人民银行将会在明年第一季度降低利率0.25个百分点，并且在2012年全年降低存款准备金率200个基点。中国于11月30日宣布，将会减少银行必须用作准备金的现金数量，这是自2008年欧贷危机威胁到进出口之后的第一次。

Pro-Growth

支持增长

Wendy Liu, a Hong Kong-based equity strategist at RBS, said that China's stocks may see a “sizeable rally” next year because of the change in monetary policy stance, improving investor protection and a likely more “moderate” pace of equity offerings. Neither Liu nor Kurtz provided stock targets.

温蒂刘，一位在香港工作的苏格兰皇家银行股票策略师说，明年中国股市将会经历一次“相当大的反弹”，一方面由于货币政策态度的变化，另外一方面则是投资者保护和可能的更加“温和”的新股上市步伐。无论刘女士还是库尔茨都没有给出股市的目标。

“Be bullish, while valuations still look undemanding,” Liu said in a report dated yesterday. UBS said Dec. 1 that the Shanghai Composite may gain as much as 30 percent in 2012, while China International Capital Corp. turned more positive on Chinese stocks as financial and material companies may benefit most from a rebound in the economy.

“要看多，尽管估值看起来并不轻松，”刘在昨天的一份报告中提到。瑞银12月1日认为上证综指会在2012年上涨30%，而中金公司则对中国股市持更加积极的态度，原因是金融和原材料公司在经济的反弹中将会收益最大。

“There will be ample evidence that Chinese policy makers have moved back over to a growth-supportive policy bias, away from the growth-constricting policy bias that has been in place over the past year to contain inflation pressure,” Kurtz said.

“有很多证据表明中国的政策制定者已经转回到一个保持增长的政策倾向上来，不再是过去1年来实行的抑制通胀压力的紧缩性政策倾向，”库尔茨说。

Growth Outlook

成长前景

The pace of China's economic growth is likely to bottom at 7.5 percent in the first quarter of next year due to a pullback in property investment and slowing exports because of Europe's debt crisis, Robert Subbaraman, Nomura's chief Asia economist, said at the same briefing. He's expecting growth to rebound to 8.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2012, he said.

“由于房地产投资的减少和欧贷危机造成的出口放缓，中国经济增长的步伐很可能在明年一季度达到7.5%的谷底，”罗伯特苏巴拉曼，野村的亚洲区首席经济学家在同一报告会上指出。他说，他预计2012年第四季度增长会反弹到8.4%。

Mizuho Asset Management Co., a unit of Japan's third- largest bank, may buy “cheap” Chinese banks and developers because they may outperform in a rebound for stocks as inflation eases, Masahiko Ejiri, a fund manager, said in an interview yesterday.

瑞穗资产管理公司，一个日本第三大银行的下属事业部，可能会买下“便宜”的中国的银行和地产开发商股票，因为它们可能会在通胀压力放缓时跑赢股市反弹，一位基金经理Masahiko Ejiri，昨天在接受采访时说。

China's statistics bureau is scheduled to report November's inflation rate and other economic data on Dec. 9. Consumer prices probably increased 4.5 percent last month from a year ago, compared with a 5.5 percent rise in October, according to the median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Inflation reached a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July.

中国国家统计局将在12月9日发布11月的通货膨胀率和其他经济数据。来自布隆伯格针对33位经济学家的调研的中位数估计表明，相比10月份同比增长5.5%，消费者指数有可能同比增长4.5%。通货膨胀在今年7月达到过3年内的高点6.5%。

Nomura announced Kurtz's hiring as its Hong Kong-based chief Asia equity strategist on Oct. 28. He was previously Macquarie Group Ltd.'s head of Asian strategy.

野村控股于10月28日宣布聘用库尔茨作为其在香港工作的亚洲区首席股票策略师。他此前是麦格理集团的亚洲区策略师。

--With assistance from Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur. Editors: Richard Frost, Allen Wan

-- 由吉隆坡的Chan Tien Hin先生协助。  编辑：理查德 佛罗斯特