如何查看公司采购什么:惠誉：中国的人寿保险公司面临偿付压力

评级机构惠誉称，国内前景悲观正在威胁中国的人寿保险公司的盈利和筹资，尽管他们还有足够的资本缓冲和外部资金避免显著的评级变化。

评级人不预期在未来12到24个月内改变大量保险人的评级，部分原因是他们的信用等级得到了有力的保险产品结构支持。

但惠誉亚太保险团队认为，按照逐日结算的股票投资，在2010年和2011年上半年严重的股票投资亏损，已破坏了人寿保险公司的营收状况。而对中国经济增长放缓的预测也可能在加大压力。

惠誉亚太保险主管Joyce Huang称：“中国的人寿保险人主要依靠对收入的投资获利，而投资表现对股市波动敏感。”他说自2011年上半年末开始股市下跌，已削弱了保险人获得扩张必须的资金。

惠誉称，没有外部资金的话，中国的保险公司通常无法筹得足够的内部资金维持偿付。而目前只有少数上市的保险人能够从资本市场获得资金。

惠誉认为保险人已经能够通过积极发行次级债维持资本能力，但这只是暂时的解决方案。

以下是惠誉新闻稿：

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-06 December 2011: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that Chinese life insurers' profitability and capitalisation remain under pressure, due to likely lacklustre investment performance amid a gloomy economic outlook.

However, the agency does not foresee significant rating changes over the next 12 to 24 months, in light of the rated insurers' existing adequate capital buffers and external funding capabilities. Insurers' credit profiles also continue to be underpinned by favourable product features, with the maximum guaranteed rate capped at 2.5%.

"Chinese life insurers have mainly relied on investment income for profits and their investment performance is sensitive to stock market fluctuations," says Joyce Huang, Director in Fitch's Asia Pacific Insurance team. "Substantial marked-to-market losses in equity investments undermined Chinese life insurers' profitability and capitalisation in 2010 and H111. Fitch sees possible further weakening of capitalisation, due to the pullback in the stock market since end-H111 and persistent capital needs for business expansion."

Insufficient internal capital generation has made external funding capabilities essential in supporting Chinese life insurers' solvency. Nevertheless, few companies are publicly listed with access to equity funding from the capital markets. Some insurers have actively issued subordinated debt to maintain their capital strength. Fitch believes that this is only a temporary solution due to the short tenor of sub-debt (issued in China) of five years or less, as issuers tend to redeem such debt (with the interest step-up provisions) before maturity to avoid higher interest costs.

The report also looks at the possible divergence in capital levels between statutory and IFRS/HKFRS accounts and considers that the capital level (shareholders' funds divided by total assets) under the IFRS/HKFRS accounts would be a more comparable indicator of capital strength. This is due to discrepancies in capital compositions and evaluations of insurance reserves based on statutory standards. Fitch notes that some companies' eligible capital includes substantial amounts of sub-debt, while other companies rely mostly on common equity. The discount rates used to determine statutory insurance reserves are benchmarked to initial guaranteed returns of policies, which may underestimate the potential negative spread burden in legacy high-guaranteed-rate policies (sold before June 1999).

The main threat to Chinese life insurers' ratings is the ongoing capital pressure arising from continued capital required for business expansion, potentially unfavourable movements in capital markets, and quality deterioration in fixed-income securities in the event of an economic slowdown in China.

On the other hand, improvements in earnings stability and diversity - with reduced reliance on investment profit - could lead to positive rating action. However, these improvements will require ongoing product innovation, with an emphasis on risk-protection elements and enhanced operating efficiency, which Fitch believes will take time.

The report, '2012 Outlook: Chinese Life Insurance - Profitability and Capitalisation Face Headwinds', is available at www.fitchratings.com.