大益七子饼茶7542价格:陌生人建议的力量

      隔壁的邻居或工作上的同事怎么会知道我应该如何花钱？但结果显示，其实他们比我们想象的要知道得多。

Imagine you are going on a 5 minute speed date with a stranger. Before you meet them, I'll let you have only one of these two pieces of information about them:

      想象一下，你将要和一位陌生人共度一个5分钟快速约会。在你们见面之前，我只让你知道关于他们的两条信息的其中之一：

1.Either: a photograph of them with an autobiography.

1. 一张他/她的照片和一本自传

2.Or: the rating of a previous speed dater (who is a stranger to you).

2.一位之前与他/她快速约会的人的评价（那个人同样也是陌生人）

Which one do you think will better predict how much you'll enjoy the speed date? You or the stranger?

      你觉得你们中的哪一个将会更享受这次约会呢？你，或是这位陌生人？

If you are like most of the participants in an experiment by Gilbert et al. (2010) then you'll go for number 1. The reason is probably that you prefer to make your own judgement rather than rely on someone else.

      如果你和大多数吉尔伯特实验的参与者一样，那么你会选择1号选项。原因是，与其依靠他人，可能你更倾向于自己做决定。

We're all different, right? So, one person's perfect partner is another person's slow, painful descent into hell.

      不过没有人是一个模子里刻出来的，不是吗？因此，对某个人来说是完美对象的人，可能对另一个人就是缓慢、痛苦的地狱煎熬。

In the experiment, though, the ratings of a previous speed dater were the best predictor of how much people enjoyed their speed date. Gilbert and colleagues call this the surprising power of neighbourly advice.

      不过，在这项实验中，前快速约会对象的评价其实是最好的预测，对于人们能享受多少他们的快速约会。吉尔伯特和同事们把这种现象称之为友邻建议的惊人力量。

Ask the audience

      问一问观众

Here's one that's even weirder.

      下面的结果愈加诡异。

First of all, let's give you a couple of options to choose from. Imagine now that I give you a chocolate chip cookie to taste. Which do you think would better predict how much you will enjoy it:

      首先，我们会给你几个选择。现在想象我给你一根巧克力棒饼干尝尝。下面哪一项你觉得会更好的预测出你约会的享受度呢？

1.You imagine yourself eating it.

1.想象你自己正在吃这个巧克力棒饼干。

2.Someone else guesses from watching your facial as you first see the cookie.

 2.其他人从你第一眼看到巧克力棒饼干的表情来猜测。

Perhaps you're a bit more wary now? If so, you'd be right.

    你现在是不是有点开始担心了？如果是，就对了。

When McConnell et al. (2011) carried out this experiment they found that observers were better at predicting participants' pleasure than they were themselves.

      当McConnel et al.(2011) 发布出这项实验，他们发现观察者们，比起预测自己，更善于预测参与者的快乐。

This suggests three things:

      这些表明了以下3点：

1.We aren't that good at predicting what we're going to enjoy (one reason is the impact bias).

  1.我们并不那么擅长预测我们将会享受什么（原因之一是偏见的影响）。

2.Our unconscious knows better what we're going to enjoy than our conscious mind (at least in some circumstances).

2.我们的潜意识更清楚自己要去享受什么（至少是在某些情况）。

3.Other people can pick up on this just by watching our faces.

 3.其他人能仅仅靠观察我们的面部表情就注意到这些。

I don't think we can argue from this that other people can make all our monetary decisions for us, that's going too far. But we can say that people who are somewhat similar to us are likely to be better than we might imagine at predicting what we will like.

      我并不认为仅仅这样就可以肯定其他人能为我们做出经济上的决定，这不太实际。但可以说，一些与我们有些相似的人能够比我们想象的更善于预测我们会喜欢什么。

We have a tendency to ignore other people's advice about how to spend, thinking we are better off making our own judgements. On the contrary, this research suggests we should pay more heed to other people's advice as it can be better than our own judgements.

      我们很容易忽视他人在如何花钱方面的建议，认为自己决定会更好。相反，这项调查表明我们应该重视他人的意见，因为这可能比自己的决定要好。

So when spending our money, we are better off to ask, and heed, the advice of others as they may well have a better insight into what we'll enjoy than we do ourselves, especially if they've already experienced it themselves.

      因此，当花钱的时候，最好去请教并重视他人的意见。因为他们可能比起我们自己更看得出我们会喜欢什么，尤其是他们也有过类似的经历时。