诸暨新闻视频:便宜的才智能 越贵越傻瓜

一回来我就着手写这篇文章，但我一直在努力加工，让我的思想成形。我一直在想的这样一个问题：什么设备是智能的，什么设备是傻瓜的。它之所以是个重要的问题，是因为这关系到开发者要建立在什么样的平台上。

I believe that cheap devices will be smart and expensive devices will be dumb. Here's why:

我认为便宜的设备是智能的，而昂贵的却是傻瓜的。原因如下：

Technology is moving very fast these days. Look at the latest iPhone 4s. It has Siri in it. Look at the latest Android Galaxy S II. It has NFC and Bluetooth 3.0 in it. And these phones will be leapfrogged in 12-18 months with something even more amazing. Furthermore, these devices have open marketplaces for apps and APIs and SDKs that allow those app developers to bring new experiences to these devices every day.

如今科技发展的太快了。看下最新的IPhone4s,里面装有SIRI，再看下最新的安卓Galaxy S Ⅱ，有NFC（即近距离无线通讯技术）和蓝牙3.0。在12-18个月内这些手机就会发生突飞猛进的改进，带来更令人惊艳的功能。而且，这些设备还为各种应用程序和 API（应用程序编程接口） SDK（软件开发工具包）打开了市场，从而使这些应用程序的开发者每天都给设备带来新的体验。

Contrast that with cars, boats, refridgerators, air conditioners, TVs, and other devices which we are led to believe will become "smart" in the coming years. These devices are usually owned for somewhere between 3 years and 10 years by most consumers. The upgrade cycle for these devices is too long to allow most consumers to experience the kind of smarts on these devices that they are experiencing on their cheapest devices with shorter upgrade cycles.

和汽车，船，冰箱，空调，电视和其它的设备不同，我们被迫相信在未来的几年内才会智能。大多数的消费者通常会用3到10年。这些设备的升级周期太长，以至于大多数消费者享受不到所谓的智能。反而他们可以在便宜的，升级周期短的设备上享受到。

And that's why technologies like airplay, DLNA, and similar approaches are so important. When smart and cheap devices can take control of expensive and dumb devices, we will see the dumb devices become smart.

这就是为什么像airplay DLNA 或类似的应用显得如此重要。当智能并廉价的设备取代了昂贵傻瓜的设备时，我们才会看到傻瓜的设备变得智能。

When I got the SoundCloud app on my iPad and I airplayed into my sonos, it was one of those "I get it" moments. Every time I get into my car these days, I want to airplay into my car audio system. The idea of connecting via an aux jack seems so nuts.

当我把SoundCloud应用装到我的 iPad，并同步到 sonos时，感觉“终于找到了”。最近每次我上车后，我都想要把歌曲传给汽车音响系统。那些用数据线连接的方法现在看起来太小儿科了。

I don't expect the makers of expensive devices to accept this idea quickly. It goes against the grain. How can my expensive device be dumb when one of those cheap devices is so smart? But I'm certain that this is the way the market will play out over time.

我并不期待昂贵设备制造商能很快接受这个点子。这有违他们的意愿。为什么昂贵的设备如此的傻瓜而便宜的却这么智能?但我可以肯定的是这就是未来市场发展方向.

Bridge technologies will play an important role for a while. As will Apple's licensing strategy for airplay. Airplay could become a standard if it is broadly and cheaply licensed. Otherwise, we will see other technologies in this market. We may anyway because there are other issues that matter, like the ability to connect over a cellular data connection instead of a wifi connection, latency, and a number of other important features.

Bridge 技术在持续的一段时间里还将继续扮演重要角色。还有APPLE airplay的许可策略。如果airplay能更广泛并廉价的许可，它就有可能成为标准。否则，我们会在市场上会看到其它技术。不管怎么说，我们可能会看到这种情况是因为还存在其它重要的问题。比如，通过无线数据连接而不用WIFI，反应时间和一系列其它重要的特征。

Regardless of timing and the technologies that get us there, I have no doubt that the way we will make our expensive devices smart will be via our cheap devices. That's how I am viewing the market opportunity these days. It's a very crisp and clear vision. And that's a good thing when you are trying to peer into the future.

抛开完成任务所花的时间和技术不说，我毫不怀疑一点，我们能通过便宜的设备使我们的昂贵的设备更智能。这就是我现在审视市场机会的方式。它是新奇和清楚的视野。并在你放眼未来的时是有益的事情。