偶看新闻荆轲刺秦王朗读拼音:人类决策：没你想象的那么精明
来源：百度文库 编辑：偶看新闻 时间：2024/04/27 19:20:25
In one experiment described by Mr Kahneman, participants asked to imagine that they have been given ￡50 behave differently depending on whether they are then told they can “keep” ￡20 or must “lose” ￡30—though the outcomes are identical. He also shows that it is more threatening to say that a disease kills “1,286 in every 10,000 people”, than to say it kills “24.14% of the population”, even though the second mention is twice as deadly. Vivid language often overrides basic arithmetic.
在他进行的一项实验中，被试要想象自己获得了50英镑，而有人被告知可以“保留”20英镑，另外一些人则被告知要“损失”30英镑，这两类被试在实验中行为并不相同——尽管他们的所得收益是相同的。他还通过实验指出，说一种病“造成10000人中1286人死亡”，比说这种病“造成24.14%的人口死亡”更令人感到危险，尽管第二种描述中死亡人数为的一种的两倍。生动的语言往往会胜过基本的算术能力。
Some findings are downright peculiar. Experimental subjects who have been “primed” to think of money, perhaps by seeing a picture of dollar bills, will act more selfishly. So if someone nearby drops some pencils, these subjects will pick up fewer than their non-primed counterparts. Even obliquely suggesting the concept of old age will inspire people to walk more slowly—though feeling elderly never crossed their mind, they will later report.有些实验结果诡异的让人摸不着头脑。如果要求被试“准备好”考虑钱，比如让他们看一张美元的图片，他们会表现的更为自私。如果旁边有人掉了些铅笔，他们捡起来的铅笔会比对照组的被试少。哪怕转弯抹角的提到“年老”这一概念，被试也会不由自主的放慢脚步——尽管他们后来报告说，在这一过程中他们脑子里从未出现过“感觉年老”这回事。
After all this the human brain looks less like a model of rationality and more like a giddy teenager: flighty, easily distracted and lacking in self-awareness. Yet this book is not a counsel of despair. Its awkward title refers to Mr Kahneman’s two-tier model of cognition: “System 1” is quick, intuitive and responsible for the quirks and mistakes described above (and many others). “System 2”, by contrast, is slow, deliberative and less prone to error. System 2 kicks in when we are faced with particularly complex problems, but much of the time it is all too happy to let the impulsive System 1 get its way. (Readers may be reminded of Freud’s “id” and “superego”, though Mr Kahneman never mentions this particular intellectual ancestor.)
总之，人类大脑可不像是一个理性模型，倒是更像一个冒失冲动的少年：好斗，精力不集中，自我认知欠缺。然而这本书里并非全是让人失望的忠告。这个有点怪异书名取自Kahneman的两层次认知模型: "系统1" 依赖于直觉，反应迅速，上述那些偏见与错误（以及其他许多错误）都来自于这一系统。而“系统2” 则更为审慎，缓慢，犯错的可能性较低。当我们碰到尤为复杂难解的问题时，系统2将接管我们的思维。（读者可能由此想到了弗洛伊德的“本我”与“超我”，不过Kahneman从未提过这一特别的学界先辈。）
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What, then, is System 1 good for? Rather a lot, it turns out. In a world that often demands swift judgment and rapid decision-making (fight or flight?), a creature who solely relied on deliberative thinking wouldn’t last long. Moreover, System 1 generally works well. As Mr Kahneman says, “most of our judgments and actions are appropriate most of the time”. He urges readers to counteract what he considers to be mistakes of System 1 thinking, such as the “loss aversion” that deters people from accepting favourable gambles (such as a 50-50 chance to win $200 or lose $100). He also recommends checking the performance of an investment portfolio no more than once a quarter, to limit needless anguish over short-term fluctuations and the “useless churning” of shares.
那么，系统1在什么情况下更具优势呢？事实上数不胜数。在一个经常需要迅速作出判断和决策的环境中（打，还是逃?），一个只依赖于审慎思考模式的生物可活不长。此外，系统1通常情况下都运转良好。如Kahneman所说，“多数情况下，我们的大多数判断和行为都是恰当合理的。”他号召读者从另一面去思考他所说的系统1的错误，如阻碍人们获取可观赌博收益（如赢取200美元与损失100美元的几率相当的情况）的“损失规避”。他还建议人们对投资组合收益的查看频率不要超过每季度一次，以减少短期收益动荡所带来的不必要的痛苦，同时也避免进行“无用的过度交易”。
Mr Kahneman does not dwell on the possible evolutionary origins of our cognitive biases, nor does he devote much time to considering why some people seem naturally better at avoiding error than others. Still this book, his first for a non-specialist audience, is a profound one. As Copernicus removed the Earth from the centre of the universe and Darwin knocked humans off their biological perch, Mr Kahneman has shown that we are not the paragons of reason we assume ourselves to be. Often hailed as the father of behavioural economics (with Tversky as co-parent), his work has influenced a range of disciplines and has even inspired some policy. But the true consequences of his findings are only starting to emerge. When he presents the poor victims of his experiments with conclusive proof of their errors, the typical reaction is not a chastened pledge to shape up, but confused silence, followed by business as usual. No one likes to be told he is wrong.
Kahneman没有详细论述导致我们具有认知偏见的可能的进化根源，也没有花太多时间考虑为什么有人天生比别人犯错误更少。但作为他的第一本科普著作，这本书仍然全面而深奥。哥伦布将地球赶出了宇宙的中心，达尔文将人类赶下了生物的神坛，Kahneman则告诉我们，人类并非我们想像的那般具备完美的理性。作为人们所推崇的行为经济学之父（与Tversky齐名），他的研究工作已经影响了大批学科，甚至影响了政策的制定。但是其成果的真正意义才刚开始显现。当他向那些可怜的实验被试展示了他们的错误证据之后，他们通常以令人费解的沉默来回应，而不是自然而然的接受这一教训，随后则是正常的交易阶段。没人愿意听到别人说自己错了。