欢乐中国人 萌娃:2012危机：中国比美国更艰难

威廉 白赛克

Economists were probably too busy watching markets gyrate to contemplate last month’s big news in science. Physicists detected particles travelling faster than light, which, if the reading was accurate, means time travel is possible.

经济学家可能都忙着关注市场运转，无瑕思考上个月的科技界要闻。物理学家发现粒子运行速度超过光速，如果测量度数准确无误，那就意味着时间旅行是可能的。

Now, let’s play a quick mind experiment that would surely captivate the deans of the dismal science: Pretend you have just been transported 10 years into the future to see how this incipient global crisis pans out. It would be hard to find anyone who isn’t desperate to know.

现在，让我们来一个快速的头脑实验，这一定会让（悲观科学）经济学系主任们感到兴奋：假设你刚刚被运送到了十年之后的未来世界，可以看到这场初期全球危机是如何结束的。恐怕人人都会疯狂地想知晓答案。

What if, a decade from now, the U.S. comes out the winner of today’s market chaos at the expense of Europe and China?

如果十年后，美国成为了如今混乱市场的大赢家，但以牺牲欧洲和中国的为代价呢？

This intriguing contrarian view is the subject of “The American Phoenix,” a new book by Hong Kong-based economist Diana Choyleva and her Lombard Street Research colleague Charles Dumas. Bargain bins are loaded with China-crash titles. What’s different about this book is that it turns all we think we know about the interplay between the Group of Two on its head.

这勾起人们好奇心的冷门想法是《美国凤凰》这本书中的主题，此书是香港经济学家Diana Choyleva和她的朗伯德调查公司同事Charles Dumas合著的新作。特价书箱里有关“中国崩溃”类的文章早已充斥其中。这本书的不同之处在于它从根本上转变了我们认为我们所了解的两国集团之间的相互作用。

If the last few years taught us anything, it’s that the unthinkable has an uncanny knack of happening. From Arab Spring protests to China bailing out Europe’s markets to a U.S. presidential candidate suggesting it’s treasonous for the Federal Reserve to do its job, the world really is upside down.

如果说过去几年的经历让我们明白了些什么，那就是意想不到的事情总会神秘般离奇地变成现实。从阿拉伯之春示威到中国救纾欧洲市场，再到美国总统候选人，都告诉我们美联储做事是叛逆的，这个世界其实是颠倒的。

So it’s worth considering an alternative trajectory for the U.S. and China as another meltdown seems to be unfolding. It’s hard to be optimistic for 2012 as Europe dithers, Washington bickers, Japan’s paralysis deepens and China experiments with ways to avoid overheating.

G-2 World

两国集团

If there is an accepted narrative about the G-2 in Asia, it goes something like this: China will grow 8 percent or 9 percent a year indefinitely, grabbing global market share as it moves from sweatshops to a knowledge-based, innovation-driven model. Hiccups may happen, but China will surpass the U.S. economy 10 or 20 years from now.

如果说在亚洲对两国集团有什么共识，那就是：中国会实现无限期的8％或9％的年增长，随着国家模式从血汗工厂向知识，创新主导型转变，中国会逐渐攫取世界市场份额。尽管中途可能会出现些小问题，但是中国经济在10年后20年之后会赶超美国。

The U.S., meanwhile, experiences a slow, steady slide as the magnitude of its challenges overwhelms a political system ridden with gridlock, an excessive debt load and chronic joblessness. The reason Occupy Wall Street went global in ways the Tea Party didn’t is that the former reflects the reasons for America’s decline, while the latter is mere handwringing over it.

于此同时，美国在经历缓慢而平稳的下滑，因为巨大的挑战压垮了陷入僵局，过度负债和长期失业的政治体系。占领华尔街集会蔓延全球，其方式与茶党运动不同，原因是前者反映了美国衰退的原因，而后者仅仅展现了民众歇斯底里的绝望。

The question is whether the U.S. recovers relative to Europe and China as global markets swoon anew. The operative word is “relative.” No should expect the U.S. to prosper in some great way from a 2012 crisis. It’s that Europe and China will be far worse off as contagion whips around the globe.

Bubbles, Imbalances

泡沫，失衡

“When you look at the problems facing the world, the bubbles and imbalances, America’s are easier to fix than most,” Choyleva told me in Hong Kong yesterday. “It says a lot about the state of things globally.”

“当你看到全球面临的问题时，比如泡沫和失衡，美国的问题比其它大部分国家要好解决，”Choyleva昨天在香港如是说。“它说明了很多全球性的事态。”

It would surprise few to imagine Europe having a harder decade than the U.S. A Greek default is a given and may drag down Portugal, Spain and, in the worst case, even Italy. Europe may be lucky to get away with just one lost decade.

Many would be taken aback to think that China, too, might experience its share of setbacks compared with the U.S. Some are well-known, including inflation that fans social unrest and a financial crisis erupting as the massive stimulus of 2009 comes back to haunt Beijing. All that investment created the illusion of economic vitality. Too much of it was funneled into unproductive sectors of the economy, setting up China for a banking meltdown.

中国也可能和美国一样经历衰退，这会让很多人感到吃惊。有些事件已尽人皆知，比如引起了社会骚乱的通货膨胀，以及2009大规模刺激计划阴影重新笼罩北京，金融危机爆发。所有的投资制造了经济活力的假象。很多资金都注入了非生产性产业，使中国的银行业遭遇衰退。

Inflation China

使中国通胀

Choyleva adds a less obvious twist to the critique: how China’s financial proximity to the U.S. is a bigger problem than many people appreciate. By tying itself to the dollar and amassing more than $3 trillion of currency reserves, China essentially merged with the U.S. financial system. When the Fed pumps money into the economy, it inflates China more than America.

Choyleva 在评论中添加了较暗示性的转折：中国与美国金融接近的程度，是个比人们想象更棘手的问题。 与美元挂钩，积累超过3万亿美元的外汇储备，中国实质上已经融入了美国的金融体系。当美联储向经济注资时，它对中国造成的通胀程度要远高于美国。

There are rumblings in Washington about punishing China for its undervalued currency. Yet China is only now realizing the extent to which it surrendered sovereignty to the U.S. As the Fed adds more cash to markets, China’s inflation becomes more entrenched and Beijing loses even more control. Over time, this dynamic will harm China’s competiveness more than if Beijing had allowed the yuan to strengthen, as per the U.S.’s demands.

China could increase interest rates to temper rising prices, but that would devastate growth. The thing about the G-2 is that pundits often view China as being in the stronger position -- its massive reserve holdings are both leverage and a fortification. Yet China is trapped. It’s addicted to cheap U.S. financing and is increasingly feeling the side effects.

中国可以提高利率来抑制高物价，但是这会摧毁增长。对于两国集团，权威人士经常将中国置于优势方－中国强大的外汇储备可以起到杠杆作用而且很坚挺。然而中国陷入了危机。它对美国廉价融资上了瘾，并且逐渐体会到了这一切的负面效应。

For all its troubles, the U.S. has inherent strengths: It’s home to many of the world’s top 20 universities; it has institutions that may still get their act together in ways Europe can’t; a fertility rate that exceeds deaths, meaning America can ultimately outgrow its debt -- unlike, say, Japan and Europe.

尽管美国麻烦不少，固有优势还在：美国有世界顶尖20所高校，那里有欧洲无法比拟的学院集体行动的方式；生育率高于死亡率，这一切意味着美国可以最终摆脱债务危机－这与日本和欧洲情况完全不同。

If Japanese and European officials could travel in time, it wouldn’t be to fix mistakes of the past. If Chinese officials don’t act more assertively to tweak their model, they’ll have similar regrets a decade from now.

如果日本和欧洲官员进行时间旅行，目的将不会是修正曾经的错误。如果中国官员不采取更果断的行动来调整他们的模式，那么十年后他们将会有和当前相似的遗憾。