三山二手房出售急售:华尔街为什么痛恨奥巴马？答案简单得让人大跌眼镜

所有的这些，也许是，也很可能是这个事件的一部分，但是现在对于反感他有一个新的，更加现实的因素。华尔街讨厌奥巴马也许是因为他们现在的表现很糟糕。且在经济低迷的时期每个人都会指责当权者。大的投资银行几乎快要破产了，但是他们还是存活下来了，很大程度上是由于他们是有利可图的企业。他们不再像一年或六个月以前一样的繁荣。在利润下跌的时候，他们将要裁员，削减奖金。

Consider the data provided in an analysis of New York’s financial industry by Thomas DiNapoli, the state comptroller. This week, he wrote that profits “declined 10.8 percent in the first half of 2011 to $12.6 billion. [This office] forecasts that profits are unlikely to reach $18 billion for the entire year.” Eighteen billion sounds like a lot! But, he notes, it is just one third of the profits the banks were making back in 2010.

某周的审计长，托马斯 迪那波利提供了一些数据分析纽约的金融业。上周，他在书中写到利润在2011上半年只有126亿下降了10.8% ，同时，这位官员还预测说今年一整年的利润不可能突破180亿。他说，180亿美元看起来很多，但是实际上，它只是2010年银行业所赚利润的三分之一。

Financial firms are, not surprisingly, throwing employees overboard, DiNapoli reports. “The securities industry could lose an additional 10,000 jobs” in the next year, he writes. Add that to job losses in the banking sector, and the overall industry will have eliminated one in five of its New York-based jobs since 2008. Looking beyond New York, the numbers get even worse. Bank of America is shedding a whopping 30,000 positions. Even Goldman Sachs—the same Goldman Sachs boasting about its all-time record profits 18 months ago—is shedding 1,000 workers. The investment banks are also cutting compensation for the workers who remain. The Wall Street Journal reports that consultants expect bonus checks to drop 30 to 40 percent, depending on the bank.

迪那波利报道说，毫无疑问地，金融公司将要裁员。明年“证券业可能又会失去10000个工作岗位”。自2008年以来，加上银行业的失业数据，纽约的整个工业 将会失去五分之一的工作机会。而纽约之外的地区，情况变得更加糟糕。美国银行将会削减30000个工作岗位。连高盛投资公司，现在也将裁掉1000个职员，就在在18个月前，他们还在炫耀自己空前的创纪录的利润。投资银行业也给留下来的职员减少补贴。华尔街日报称，顾问的奖金也将会下降30%到40%，这取决于银行.

Just six months ago, profits were sky-high in the financial sector. Banks like Goldman Sachs no longer had Lehman Bros. or Bear Stearns to compete with. Fewer competitors and ample help from Uncle Sam pushed profits higher. Indeed, last year, real corporate profits neared an all-time peak, with businesses pulling $1.68 trillion, pre-tax, and sitting on nearly $2 trillion in cash.

就在6个月前，金融业还是利润极高的产业。高盛公司再也没有能力收购雷曼兄弟，也不能和贝尔斯登竞争了。很少能有竞争者将利润提到很高，即使在政府的援助下也难以办到。去年，企业的利润在未纳税前，有将近2万亿美元的现金，纳税后，实体利润有1.68万亿，达到了这一时期的顶点。

No more. Take J.P. Morgan, widely considered the healthiest of the big investment houses. This week, it reported that its third-quarter profits dropped about 25 percent, even after getting a boost from a one-off accounting change. In a note to investors, Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive officer, offered this tepid conclusion: “All things considered, we believe the Firm’s returns were reasonable given the current environment.” Next week, a number of the other big banks report their third-quarter earnings. The balance sheets are not likely to be pretty, either. Analysts are lowering their estimates for banks like Goldman Sachs, whose quarterly revenue they expect to fall from $10.71 billion to $4.93 billion year over year.

但是情况不在是这样的好了。被广泛认为是最安全的投资公司摩根，在这周的报道中称，即使从一次性的会计变更中有所受益，在第三个季度的时候利润还是下降了25%。杰米戴蒙，银行的CEO,在一次回答投资者问题时，给了一个不温不火的回答：“考虑到所有的事情，鉴于当前的经济环境，我们认为公司所给的回报是很合理的。”其他的银行在下一周的时候就公布自己第三季度的收入。这个资产负债表当然也不尽如人意。分析员开始降低对银行的评估，例如高盛公司季度性的收益，与去年同期相比，将会从107.1亿美元降到49.3亿美元。

What gives? First and foremost, the economy just caught up with the banks. America’s consumers are not consuming much, which means that American businesses are not thriving. Mergers and acquisitions have slowed as companies prefer to hang onto their cash, or spend it to survive. The flurry of tech-sector-fueled initial public offerings we saw at the beginning of the year is now over. The European debt crisis and the months-long political impasse around it are weighing on the financial world. That means trouble for the investment banks’ bottom lines. J.P. Morgan, for instance, reported this week that its fees from investment-banking fell nearly half in the third quarter. And investors have noticed. The KBW Bank Index, a composite of banking stocks, has fallen about 30 percent this year.

这些是有什么引起的呢？首先，萧条的经济对银行业产生了不良的影响。美国的消费者不在大量的消费，这就意味着美国的商业将不会很繁荣。当公司更宁愿留住手上的钱，或者将它用来维持公司的生存的时候，收购与兼并就会越来越少。在年初我们看到的以科技为动力部门的首次公开募股的狂潮现在已经结束了。因它而产生的欧洲债务危机和长达数月的政治僵局都加重金融界的负担。这也意味着它将打破投资银行的底线。例如，摩根在这周的报道中称，他们第三季度在投资银行的费用降低了几乎一半。投资者也提到，KBW银行指数，一种复合的银行股，今年已经下降了大约30%。

This month, Citi performed a survey of a large number of investors, asking them about where they see the markets going and current sentiment. The proportion who foresee a recession has tripled to 30 percent since July, Business Insider reports. A majority now believe that Obama will lose the next election. And the thing that has investors most worried, more so than debt and housing and declining profits? “Government policy missteps.”

这个月，花旗银行对许多投资者开展了一项调查，向他们询问当前市场的走向和自己对其的看法。财经内幕的报道称，自从7月份以来，预测经济萧条的人的比例增长了三倍，达到了30%。政府的失策比还贷，购房和利润的下跌更令投资者担心。

The antipathy towards Obama, of course, is not new, and is certainly multidimensional. Plenty of financiers loathed the president before their profits turned south, back when their only complaint was that he kept calling them fat cats and wanted to regulate them. But Wall Street has gone from seeming cautiously ungrateful to angrily opposed. Some of that may actually be their renewed strength and the president’s increasing weakness. But some of it is doubtlessly that Wall Street is, all of a sudden, suffering a bit, and like so many Americans, they blame the president.

当然对于奥巴马的憎恨是很早就有了，也是多方面的。在他们的利润下跌之前他们就讨厌奥巴马，在那之后，他们就抱怨奥巴马仍然称他们是有权有势的人，并企图控制他们。但是华尔街已从表面上小心翼翼的不满变成了彻底的反对。此变化的部分原因可能是因为有新的复兴力量，而总统的实力日渐衰退。不容置疑地，突然处在艰难时期的华尔街也会像许多美国人一样指责总统，这也是部分原因。