通胀恐慌将损害中国经济Inflation scare will hurt China’s economy

The unexpected rise of inflation in October in China – 4.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis – spooked global equity and commodities markets. As soon as Chinese authorities announced the unpleasant news and declared measures to contain further acceleration of price rises (a 50 basis points increase in bank reserves and possible price controls), investors around the world sold off equities and commodities in anticipation of a significant slow down of growth in China.

中国10月份出人意料的通胀涨幅——同比上涨4.4%——吓坏了全球股市与大宗商品市场。中国政府宣布了这条令人不快的消息以及抑制价格进一步加速上涨的措施（银行准备金率上调50个基点及可能的价格管制）后，全球投资者便立即开始抛售股票和大宗商品，因为他们预期中国经济增长将显著放缓。

Official Chinese data show that rising prices of food, commodities, and housing fuelled the inflation spiral. Some Chinese analysts even blamed recent natural disasters for reducing harvests and adding to price increases. But China’s inflation scare is being driven by more fundamental and powerful forces than unco-operative weather.

中国官方数据显示，食品、大宗商品和房地产价格的不断上涨，加剧了通胀的螺旋上升。一些中国分析师甚至指称近期的自然灾害导致农作物减产，加剧了价格的上涨。但推动中国的通胀恐慌的，是比不合作的天气更为根本和强大的力量。

First and foremost is the loose monetary policy the Chinese government has been pursuing for the last seven years. M2, a measure of the money supply, has risen more than three times in this period. This combination of negative interest rates and massive credit increase is the most direct contributor to China’s frothy property sector and broad inflationary pressures. Excess liquidity aside, rising labour costs (driven largely by demographics) and commodities prices are the other powerful long-term variables driving China’s higher inflation equation.

首先是中国政府过去七年奉行的宽松货币政策。在此期间，M2货币供应量增长了3倍多。负利率与大规模信贷增长的综合作用，是中国楼市泡沫与广泛通胀压力的最直接致因。除了过剩的流动性，不断上升的劳动力成本（主要由人口特征所推动）与大宗商品价格，是推高中国通胀的另一个强有力的长期变量。

On the surface investors seem to have overreacted. The October inflation data were bad, but China is a long way from runaway price rises. But what investors rightly fear most is the fallout of the policy measures now being taken by Beijing to combat inflation.

表面上看，投资者似乎反应过度。10月份的通胀数据确实糟糕，但中国距离价格上涨失控还很遥远。不过，投资者最担心的（而且很有道理），其实是北京方面现在采取的抗击通胀政策措施的附带影响。

Obviously, Chinese growth will fall as rising interest rates and administrative tightening of credit emissions cool down the economy. But most analysts already expect Chinese growth to decelerate. Even the most bullish China boosters project an annual growth rate that will fall from 10 per cent now to 7-8 per cent in the coming decade.

显然，随着利率上升及政府采取行政手段收紧信贷发放为经济降温，中国的增长将会下滑。但大多数分析师已经预料到中国的增长会减速。就连最看好中国的拥护者们都预测，未来十年，中国的年增长率会从现在的10%下降到7%-8%。

More worrying are policies designed to prick the real estate bubble. The credit boom in China in the last few years has led to an unsustainable increase in property prices, rapid expansion of industrial capacity, and excess leverage taken on by local governments. If Beijing is serious about fighting inflation, it will need to go far beyond imposing a few price controls.

更令人担忧的是旨在戳破房地产泡沫的政策。中国过去几年的信贷繁荣，导致了房地产价格非可持续的上涨，工业产能的迅速扩张，地方政府的过度举债。如果北京真的想对抗通胀，那就不只是实施几项价格管制那么简单。

This, in turn, will mean China raising interest rates further, and cutting down bank lending. And one can only imagine what such measures will do to an inflated property sector and over-extended state-owned enterprises and local governments.

这进而意味着中国要进一步提高利率，削减银行放贷。你只能想象一下，对于膨胀的楼市以及过度扩张的国有企业和地方政府，此类措施会产生何种影响。

That said, this may not even be the worst of what is to come. Even if policy is changed to damp down price rises, the persistence of the real estate bubble flows from much deeper structural imbalances in China’s economy. Even as Chinese leaders prevaricate and take half-measures to address the underlying causes of inflation, these problems are not being dealt with.

不过，这或许还不是最坏的结果。即使政策转变为抑制价格上涨，但中国经济更深层次的结构性失衡还是会使得房地产泡沫持续存在。即使中国领导人敷衍塞责，采用折中的办法对待通胀的根本原因，这些问题还是没有得到处理。

In all this politics will definitely get in the way. As the Communist party prepares to select a new generation of leaders in the next two years, Beijing is likely to become extremely risk-averse, and keen to postpone painful but necessary reforms to rebalance the economy. In the end, of course, they will have to clean up the mess. But delay means the price will then be much higher.

政治肯定会阻碍这一切得到解决。在共产党准备在未来两年选出新一代领导人之际，北京可能会变得极其反对冒险，热衷于推迟实现经济再平衡所必需的痛苦改革。当然，最终他们将不得不清理烂摊子。但推迟意味着到时候要付出更高的代价。

The writer is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and an adjunct senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

本文作者为美国克莱蒙特-麦肯纳学院(Claremont McKenna College)政治学教授，卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)客座高级研究员。