美国政府应抛售黄金储备

Time to unlock Fort Knox and sell the bullion

Gold is back in the news. Its price is soaring in what some analysts say is a reflection of a weak economy and a lack of confidence in government policies. Investors are looking at a new sure thing in the expectation that prices will continue upward. My advice to the US government, however, is that this may be the best time – to sell. Doing so would help President Barack Obama and Congress reduce indebtedness, at little cost.

黄金又成了新闻头条。金价正在飙升。在某些分析师看来，这反映了经济疲弱以及人们对政府政策缺乏信心。投资者看到了新的稳赚不赔的机会，他们预期金价将会继续上涨。然而，我对美国政府的建议是，这可能是抛售黄金的最佳时机。这样做会帮助美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和国会以极小的代价削减债务。

It is an article of faith in bullion markets that the US will be the last country to dispose of its gold stock. For 30 years it has had a no-net-sales policy for reasons ranging from resistance by US gold-producing interests to concerns about the international monetary system. That assumption may remain plausible. Yet the administration has an obligation to re-examine its policy.

黄金市场的一条信念是，美国将是最后一个处置其黄金储备的国家。30年来，出于各种理由——从美国黄金生产商的抵制，到对国际货币体系的担忧——美国一直执行“非净卖出”政策。目前这种假定可能仍有道理。然而，美国政府有责任重新审视其政策。

The market price of gold has risen for more than a decade propelled by low interest rates, the hype of the bullion dealers (holding large inventories) and no doubt the normal amount of fraud and misinformation accompanying asset price bubbles. the Financial Times has reported that the precious metals industryexpects the price to increase by a further 11 per cent over the next year.

在低利率和黄金交易商（它们持有巨额存货）炒作的推动下，黄金的市场价格已经上涨了十多年。毫无疑问，伴随资产价格泡沫的正常数量的欺诈与讹传也起到了推波助澜的作用。英国《金融时报》报道称，贵金属行业预计，明年金价将继续上涨11%。

Meanwhile, the US Treasury holds 261.5m fine troy ounces of gold. The government has been sitting on it since the Great Depression, receiving no return. At the current market price of $1,300 per ounce, the US gold stock is worth $340bn. The Treasury secretary, with the approval of the president, has the power to sell (and buy) gold on terms that the secretary considers most beneficial to the public interest. Revenues from sales must be used to reduce the national debt.

与此同时，美国财政部持有2.615亿盎司黄金。自大萧条(Great Depression)以来，美国政府一直坐拥这些黄金，没有获得任何收益。以目前每盎司1300美元的市场价格计算，美国的黄金储备价值3400亿美元。美国财长在总统的批准下，有权在自己认为最有利于公众利益的情况下出售（和买入）黄金。出售所得必须用于削减国家债务。

If the US were to sell its entire gold stock at the current market price, it would reduce the gross government debt by 2¼ per cent of gross domestic product. (US net government debt would decline by essentially the same amount because the US gold stock, listed as an asset on the balance sheet, is valued at only $42.22 an ounce.) Based on the average interest cost from 2005 to 2008, this reduction in debt would trim the budget deficit by $15bn annually. Thus, the Obama administration would be doing something about the US fiscal debt and deficit without reducing near-term support for the ailing economy.

如果以当前市场价格全数出售其黄金储备，美国将削减相当于国内生产总值(GDP) 2.25%的政府毛债务（政府净债务也将大致减少相同数额，因为在资产负债表上列为资产项的美国黄金储备，仅以每盎司42.22美元的价格入账）。基于从2005年到2008年的平均利率成本，这一债务削减将减少预算赤字每年150亿美元。如此，奥巴马政府就可改善美国财政债务和财政赤字状况，同时无需减弱对陷入困境的美国经济的短期支持。

This proposal has other benefits too. First, the US would be obeying the maxim to buy low and sell high. Second, it would be performing a socially useful function. Demand for gold exceeds normal production, driving up the price. To the extent that the gold craze is being fed by concern (rational or irrational) about government policies, public welfare would be enhanced by giving citizens something tangible to hang around their necks or place in safe deposit boxes. Third, if the price is a bubble, as seems likely, the sooner it is burst the better for the average investor.

这个提议还有其它好处。首先，美国遵循了低买高卖的格言。其次，它有利于社会。黄金需求超出了正常的产量，从而推升了价格。有人说黄金热是由人们对政府政策的（理性或非理性）担忧所致——就此而言，通过给予公民某种可悬挂在脖子上或可放入保险箱的实实在在的东西，公共福祉就可得到提高。第三，如果金价存在泡沫（看上去很有可能），越早戳破它，就对普通投资者越有利。

Some people point to possible costs. Aside from political pressures from those who want to protect the value of their holdings, above or below ground, two principal arguments are made against US gold sales. The first is that they would disrupt the market. But the US can be cautious in its sales, avoiding disruption of the sales programmes of other countries, as it has in the past. There is little risk. In recent years, sales under the Central Bank Gold Agreement have dwindled, and some other central banks are buying gold. (The US is not a party to the agreement.) Also the International Monetary Fund has completed more than three-quarters of its own planned sales of 403.3 metric tons.

一些人指出了可能存在的成本。除了那些希望保护自身所持黄金或所控金矿价值的人施加的政治压力之外，反对美国出售黄金的主要主张还有两个。第一个主张是，这么做将会扰乱市场。但美国可以在出售时谨慎行事，避免破坏其它国家的售金计划，正如其过去所做的那样。这几乎不会构成任何风险。近年来，各方按照《央行售金协定》(CBGA)出售的黄金数量已经下降，其它一些央行则在买入黄金（美国不是CBGA签约国）。国际货币基金组织(IMF)自身403.3吨的售金计划也完成了逾四分之三。

Another counter argument is that the US should hold on to its stock in anticipation of a return – by itself alone or with other nations – to a monetary system based on gold. But returning to the gold standard would reinstate a system associated with unstable prices, wages, output and employment. It has not existed for a century; and will not make a comeback. Official discussions of the reform of the international monetary system do not include any advocates of a return to gold, and the IMF articles of agreement prohibit it. The sooner thoughts of such a return are laid to rest, the better. A related argument is to keep the US gold stock as a “rainy day” precaution. But after the recent economic and financial crisis and with the prospect of misery for several more years, how much more rain must pour before the US acts?

另一个主张是，在（独自或与其它国家一起）回归金本位货币体系的预期下，美国应该握紧手中的黄金储备。但是，回归金本位将重新确立起一种导致价格、薪资、产出和就业不稳定的体系。该体系已经消亡了一个世纪，决不会再卷土重来。在改革国际货币体系的官方讨论中，不包括任何回归金本位的倡议，而且IMF协议条款也禁止这种做法。人们最好尽快消除回归金本位的想法。一个与该主张相关的观点是，美国应将黄金储备当作“未雨绸缪”的预防措施。但我们已然经历金融危机和经济危机，未来几年的前景也可谓艰难，美国政府还要等待多少“大雨”倾盆而下才会着手出售黄金呢？

The writer is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

本文作者为美国华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员

译者/君悦