偶看新闻蓝色大海的传说的住所:中国用电量下降“值得警惕”
来源：百度文库 编辑：偶看新闻 时间：2024/05/03 07:38:07
According to the China Securities Journal, Chinese electricity use dropped 7.5 per cent year on year in January.
Sure, it was during Chinese New Year, but, according to Nomura, the statistic looks “alarming”.
Here’s Nomura’s chart, with a production estimate based on the published consumption figure:
And as Nomura puts it:In the last 10 years CNY [Chinese New Year] has often fallen in different months in consecutive years, which leads to swings (trough to peak in Figure 1) in the year-on-year data. However, we have not (ex-2009) seen an actual decline in electricity production since 2002. We therefore believe that this drop reflects a sharp slowdown in industrial production.
If the figures do prove correct, then expect some challenging PMI readings in the months ahead. Nomura has yet to alter its forecast for first quarter growth in China, but then it already has a pretty low prediction of 7.5 per cent. Others forecasting 8 per cent and more may be in for a shock.