【国家利益】普京其人（一）

译者：Flyingheart

AT LAST fall’s Valdai Discussion Club, the annual Moscowsession where Russian leaders meet with Western journalists and academics, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin made clear he would issue no apologies for his recent maneuver to reclaim the Russian presidency from his protégé, Dmitri Medvedev, and dominate his country’s politics for perhaps the next dozen years. Responding to one question, he declared, “I do not need to prove anything to anyone.”

　　在瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部（Valdai Discussion Club）莫斯科年会上，俄罗斯领导人都会与西方的记者和学者们见面。在去年秋天的会议期间，弗拉基米尔·弗拉基米罗维奇·普京就一些热点问题做了答复。首先他将不会就最近从他的门生德米特里·梅德韦杰夫手里收回俄罗斯总统职位的策略作出道歉，其次他也许会在接下来的12年（两届总统任期）里统治这个国家。作为第一个问题的回应，他宣称，“我不需要向任何人证明任何事！”

Such defiance reflects two central elements of the Putin persona: his firm conviction that his personal destiny is intertwined with that of his country; and his resolve to fashion the Russian destiny through slow, methodical decision making over a long period of time. In past public appearances, Putin has made repeated references to one of his Russian heroes, Pyotr Stolypin, the reformist prime minister under the last czar, Nicholas II, who also favored measured, evolutionary change; and to his American model, Franklin D. Roosevelt, who brushed aside the unwritten two-term presidential limit that had guided all U.S. executive leaders up to his time. At one point at the recent Valdai conference, Putin was asked directly about these references to Stolypin andRoosevelt, both of whom, noted the questioner, “did not survive to see their projects through.”

　　上述强硬姿态反映出普京人格上两个基本特征：其一，他坚信他个人的命运是与自己国家的命运纠缠在一起的；其二，他有决心通过在一个长的时间段内做出的缓慢的、有条不紊的决定来改变俄罗斯人的命运。在其过去展现出的公众形象中，普京仿佛是曾经的一位俄罗斯人的英雄彼得·斯托雷平（Pyotr Stolypin：1862-1911。俄罗斯政治家、改革家，在末代沙皇尼古拉二世统治时任总理，他也赞同慎重的、循序渐进的变革。）再世；同时普京也让人感到颇具美国同行富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福（Franklin D. Roosevelt）的风范，罗斯福将在他之前所有美国领袖最多两届总统任期的不成文的限制抛在了脑后。在最近的这次瓦尔代年会上，普京一度被直接问及将他与斯托雷平和罗斯福相提并论的问题。提问者指出，这两位政治人物“都没有在有生之年看到他们的宏愿最终实现。”

Putin did not miss a beat. “Well,” he interjected, to a smattering of nervous laughter, “don’t go planning my funeral just yet.” Clearly, he does not conceive of the next phase of Russia’s history moving forward without him.

　　普京不放过任何反击的机会。“慢着，”面对一片肤浅的、神经质的嘲笑，他插话道，“目前还不是安排我葬礼的时候！”很显然，他并未考虑，如果没有他，下一个阶段的俄罗斯历史该如何书写的问题。

Putin is back, or almost assuredly will be back, as Russian president in 2012. Notwithstanding all his time as Russian president or as the stealthy power behind the presidency, Putin remains a shadowy and inaccessible figure. This is not by accident, given that he has invested extraordinary efforts into hiding his true identity. There are large discrepancies in his official narrative—not surprising, perhaps, for a former KGB case officer adept at masking his real self as well as, sometimes, his very existence. His KGB role, including his East German service inDresden, remains a mystery. Little is known even of his activities as deputy mayor ofSt. Petersburg. So little, in fact, that to our knowledge there may be only one published photo of the man from this important period of his official career. This is a striking contrast to his more recent penchant for projecting his political persona widely through photographs.

　　2012年，普金将要回归（或者几乎可以肯定地说将会回归）俄罗斯总统宝座。尽管普京一直在做俄罗斯的总统或者总统身后的影子总统，但是普京本人依然是一个身形模糊、难以捉摸的人物。考虑到他已经费尽心机隐藏自己的真实身份，因此说我们看到普京现在的形象绝非偶然。普京的官方资料存在很大的出入——也许对一个精于隐藏真实自我甚至有时让自己凭空消失的克格勃案件调查官来说，这一切丝毫不令人奇怪。他在克格勃内的身份（包括他在前东德德累斯顿的工作经历）一直就是一个谜。甚至他担任圣彼得堡市长助理时的活动，人们都知之甚少。事实上，官方的信息如此之少，以至于可供我们了解的仅有一张普京在此段重要的从政期间公开的照片而已。这与他最近热衷于广泛地利用照片宣传自己政治形象的举动形成了鲜明的对照。

This vague biography prior to Putin’s August 1996 arrival inMoscowcontributed to another aspect of his career—a widespread tendency on the part of others to underestimate him. Seemingly lacking a firm identity or ideology, Putin was seen as a “quiet Chekist” who could easily “disappear in a crowd of two,” asRussiaexpert Pavel Baev once put it. He seemed to have a knack for getting others to construct their own versions of what they wanted him to be and did not seem overly concerned about the result. When Putin first joined the Russian government, former acquaintances widely dismissed him as a second-rate figure. He was “a mediocrity,” as a senior official fromHelsinkiput it. He was also called a puppet of the “Yeltsin family” (the entourage around former Russian president Boris Yeltsin), a tool of the security services (siloviki) or simply a “KGB thug” motivated by lust for money.

　　普京1996年8月到莫斯科赴任之前含糊不清的经历对其职业的另外一番表象起了很大的作用——社会各界都广泛存在低估他的倾向。表面上看起来，普京缺乏坚实的身份或者思想意识。就像俄国问题专家帕维尔·巴依夫曾经介绍的那样，普京被看作一名“安静的契卡干部”（前苏联秘密警察），他可以在“众目睽睽之下玩失踪”。他似乎有本事让其他人在构建自己的势力范围时将他纳入其中，而且那些人似乎并不过度考虑这样做的后果。在普京开始进入俄罗斯政坛的时候，此前相熟的人都普遍将他贬损为一个平庸的角色。一名叶利钦时代的高官评价普京，这是“一个庸才”。他还被称作“叶利钦家族”（围绕在前总统叶利钦周围的随从人员）的一个傀儡，安全机关（强力集团）的一个工具，或者直接说成追逐金钱的一个“克格勃恶棍”。

None of this was accurate. Putin turned out to be much more important—and more complex—than almost anyone perceived a dozen years ago. As president and premier, he is one of the longest serving leaders in postczarist Russian history. As the 2012 Russian presidential election approaches, Putin has put himself forward as a critical protagonist inRussia’s historical narrative. We propose here to offer a portrait of the man from official biographical accounts, his numerous interviews and speeches, our personal interactions with individuals who have known and worked with him, and our participation in the annual Valdai sessions. These offer an image of Putin as a student of Russian history who is moving increasingly into the dangerous territory of writer, manufacturer and manipulator of history.

　　所有这一切（表象）都是不准确的。事情的发展最终证明普京比十几年前几乎所有人所能认识到的那个人更加重要也更加复杂。普京既当过总统又当过总理，他是沙皇之后俄罗斯历史上任职时间最长的领导人。随着2012年俄罗斯总统选举的临近，普京已经将自己置身为俄罗斯历史舞台上的关键角色。我们翻阅了普京官方的生平记载和数不清的受访和发言记录以及我们参加的瓦尔代年会资料，我们还走访了那些了解他并和他一起工作过的人。通过上述纷繁细致的资料整理工作，我们试图为这个人画一幅肖像，而最终这幅肖像向我们展示出普京作为俄罗斯历史长河中的一名学生正在疾步闯入历史写手、历史创造者和历史操纵者这一危险领域。

Indeed, any effort to understand Vladimir Putin must begin with the man of history. For Putin, the interpretation and reinterpretation of history is a crucial matter. History was his favorite subject in school, and he remains an avid reader today. He appreciates the power of “useful history,” the application of history as a policy tool, as a social and political organizing force that can help shape group identities and foster coalitions. At the September 2010 Valdai Club conference, Russian deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov told the group that Putin and his team “are good students of Russian history. We’ve studied it and learned lessons from it.” In late October 2011, in a Reutersinterview, Putin’s press secretary Dmitri Peskov stressed that “Putin reads all the time, mostly about the history ofRussia. He reads memoirs, the memoirs of Russian historical state figures.” For Putin, history is both personal and personalized—focused on individuals and their actions rather than on political, social and economic forces.

　　事实上，我们想要了解普京必须从这个人的历史开始。对普京而言，解释和重新解释他的历史是一件至关重要的事情。上学时，历史是他最喜欢的课程，而且普京现在依然渴望阅读历史学著作。他欣赏“有用的历史”的威力。在这里，历史被用作一种政策工具、一种社会的和政治的组织力量，它可以帮助塑造团体的身份并促进结盟。在2010年9月份的瓦尔代俱乐部会议上，俄罗斯副总理伊戈尔·舒瓦洛夫（Igor Shuvalov）告诉与会者，普京和他的团队是“俄罗斯历史的好学生。我们研究历史并吸取历史教训。”2011年10月下旬，在接受路透社采访时，普京的新闻秘书德米特里·佩斯科夫（Dmitri Peskov）强调，“普京一直在坚持阅读，主要是有关俄罗斯历史的书籍。他喜欢读传记，俄罗斯历史上的政治人物的传记。” 在普京看来，历史应当既是个人的也是个性化的——历史应当聚焦在个体和他们的行动上，而非政治的、社会的和经济的影响力上。

During a September 2005 Valdai Club lunch with Putin in the Kremlin, participants noted the prominent placement of busts and pictures of the great czarist-era reformers in his public-private area. In 2008, the Kremlin and the Russian government conducted a national contest in which Russian citizens chose “the most important persons in Russian history.” The contest unfolded according to an elimination-round format in which each round’s highest vote getters would be pitted against one another in subsequent rounds. The top designee turned out to be Alexander Nevsky, thirteenth-century grand prince ofVladimirand one of the most significant early Russian rulers, declared a saint by the Russian Orthodox Church. Number two was Stolypin, who resigned after a series of political setbacks and was subsequently assassinated. As a number of prominent Russian commentators pointed out at the time of the contest, it was fixed. Independent polls showed that few Russians considered these two figures even in the top twenty-five. The regime manufactured their popularity for its own purposes. But it was a hard sell. Stolypin had been denigrated in the Soviet era and depicted as a brutal repressor of the people. Yet Stolypin has since become Putin’s role model of choice, a historical figure who justifies both Putin’s policies as prime minister and his program for the further development of Russia.

　　2005年9月的瓦尔代俱乐部年会期间，在克里姆林宫与普京共进午餐时，与会者在普京的住所里注意到显著位置摆放着沙俄帝国时代改革家的半身塑像和画像。2008年克里姆林宫和俄罗斯政府在俄罗斯公民中联合主办了一场全国性竞赛活动，评选“最伟大的俄罗斯人”。竞赛是按照每轮淘汰赛的方式进行的，每轮最高的投票获得者会在接下来的轮次中继续捉对较量。最终桂冠花落十三世纪弗拉基米尔大公亚历山大·涅夫斯基，他是俄罗斯最重要的早期领导人之一，同时也被俄罗斯东正教宣布为圣人。排在第二位的是斯托雷平。斯托雷平在遭受一系列政治挫折之后辞去总理职务并随后遭到暗杀。正如许多著名俄罗斯时事评论员在竞赛进行之时所指出的那样，这个结果的事先设定好的。独立民意调查结果显示，几乎没有多少俄罗斯人会将此二人排在哪怕前25人之列。一个政权会为了一己私利人为制造声望的，但这是一种强行推销的行为。斯托雷平在前苏联时代一直遭到诋毁并被描述为一个无情地镇压人民的人。然而（此一时彼一时），斯托雷平现在已经变成了普京挑选的行为榜样。这个历史人物可以证明作为总理的普京为了俄罗斯的发展制订的施政纲领和行动计划的合理性。

Putin, it seems, has embraced Pyotr Stolypin as the model for his current premiership and putative future presidency because Stolypin tried to accomplish the political, economic and social transformation ofRussiathrough nonrevolutionary means. Putin’s favorite quote these days is, “We do not need great upheavals. We need a greatRussia,” a paraphrase of Stolypin’s famous rebuke to his fellow Duma deputies in 1907: “You, gentlemen, are in need of great upheavals; we are in need of Great Russia.” At the 2011 Valdai meetings, as in previous sessions, Putin made frequent references to the importance of gradual, evolutionary change.

　　由于斯托雷平寄望于通过非革命性的方式完成俄罗斯在政治、经济和社会等领域的转变，因此普京似乎已经将斯托雷平当作自己目前任职总理以及可以预见的将来行使总统职权时的楷模。最近的这段时间里，普京最喜欢说的一句话是，“我们不需要巨大的震动，我们需要强大的俄罗斯。”这句话是斯托雷平在1907年斥责俄罗斯杜马（议会）同僚时那句著名的“你们需要巨大的震动，我们需要强大的俄国。”的翻版。在2011年瓦尔代年会上，普京一如既往地频繁提到逐渐的、革命性变革的重要性。

But there are risks in this effort to manufacture and manipulate history for purposes of the present. History can be stubborn in its details. Stolypin, for example, did not succeed in transformingRussiathrough steady, well-planned actions afterRussiawas humiliated in the 1904–05 Russo-Japanese War and shaken by revolutionary turmoil. He repeatedly dissolved the Russian parliament after clashing with its more radical members, and Czar Nicholas II famously grew weary of the constitutional monarchy and tentative parliamentary democracy that Stolypin tried to lead. Putin and Stolypin have many more differences than similarities, and it would be rash to suggest that Putin is predestined to share Stolypin’s fate, politically or personally. But in a general sense, Putin does face the same dilemma as Stolypin: before he can shape the future and make it into history as he envisions it, he has to deal with the political exigencies of the present. The past teaches us that the forces and pressures of politics sometimes go their own way despite carefully calibrated efforts to channel them. The disappointing results for Putin’s United Russia party in the recent parliamentary elections are a reminder of that lesson. Putin expected voters to elect a thoroughly supportive parliament for his upcoming presidency. The newly elected Duma will not be as docile as he had planned. The challenge in scripting history is getting the real-world actors to understand and play their parts. Putin knows and plays his role. His people seem less willing to play theirs.

　　但是为了眼前的目标，试图制造和操控历史的做法是冒险行为。如果审视其细节，历史也可以是顽固的。还举斯托雷平的例子：俄罗斯在1904年-1905年日俄战争蒙羞以及遭受革命动乱重创后，斯托雷平没能成功地通过坚定的、计划周详的行动引导俄罗斯发生转变。在与议会中更激进的议员发生冲突后，他多次解散俄罗斯议会，而当时人们都知道沙皇尼古拉斯二世对君主立宪政体和斯托雷平推动的试验性的议会民主制政体也心生厌倦。普京和斯托雷平的不同点要远远多于相似的地方，所以说不管是从政治的角度讲，还是从个人的角度而言，如果有人暗示普京会步其后尘则难免有失草率。但在一定程度上，普京的确面临如斯托雷平一样的两难选择：在他可以塑造未来并让历史按照自己的展望前进之前，他不得不处理目前的政治危局。历史的经验告诉我们，尽管我们加倍小心地引导，但政治的力量和压力有时会按照自己的意愿行事。普京的“统一俄罗斯党”在最近的议会选举中遭遇令人失望的结果也算上了一堂教育课吧。普京本来期盼选民为其即将履新的总统职位选出一个完全拥护他的议会，但是新选出的杜马将不会像他计划的那样容易驯服。为历史编写脚本所面临的挑战是需要现实世界的演员们领会透彻并演好他们的角色的。普京知道并在扮演自己的角色，但是他的人民似乎不是那么情愿扮演他们的角色。

Still, Putin demands his place in Russian history, which makes him a man of mark in our time. He is one who deserves to be better understood. His outlook has been shaped by many influences, among them the archetypical Russian mentality as well as his early life; KGB training and service inEast Germany; experiences inSt. Petersburgin the 1990s; early days behind the political scenes inMoscow; and his time at the helm of the Russian nation. The force of history is a strong current that flows through all of these. To pull them together into a portrait of the man, we shall look at the Russian prime minister in five guises—Putin the statist, Putin the survivalist, Putin the outsider, Putin the free marketeer and Putin the case officer.

　　虽然如此，普京确实需要确立自己在俄罗斯历史中的地位，这个地位可以使其成为我们时代的名人。他是一个值得我们好好了解的人物。他的世界观受到了多种因素的影响，比如典型的俄罗斯人心态和早年的生活；克格勃训练和在东德的工作；上世纪九十年代在圣彼得堡的经历；前期在莫斯科做的政治圈幕后的工作；以及掌舵国家的这段时间等。历史的力量就是上述因素汇聚的洪流，为了将它们综合起来勾勒出普京的一幅肖像，我们将从五个侧面逐一审视：普京——国家主义者；普京——活命主义者；普京——门外汉；普京——自由市场派；普京——案件调查官。

谢谢阅读！

未完待续，敬请期待！