sopor aeternus的歌:美国大选共和党预选启动 摩门教亿万富豪罗姆尼领跑

2012年01月03日 04:25
来源：中国新闻网 作者：吴庆才
字号:T|T
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中新社华盛顿1月2日电题：共和党“七剑下艾州” 观察家细绘“大选群像”
中新社记者吴庆才
1月3日，美国总统大选首场“前哨战”将在美国中西部小州艾奥瓦州正式开打，共和党的7名“剑客”将上演“艾州论剑”，在此一决高低。
作为长期观察并深度参与美国总统大选的专家、艾奥瓦州华人协会执行主席燕晓哲根据半年来与各位候选人的近距离接触和观察向记者描绘了一幅共和党候选人的“群英谱”。
罗姆尼：相对稳定的领跑者
作为前马萨诸塞州长，2008年罗姆尼曾竞选过共和党总统提名，当时在艾奥瓦州预选中倾尽全力，结果却只得第二。
也许是总结了上届的“投入产出比”，罗姆尼在宣布再次参选后，几乎没在艾州露面，甚至连该州8月的一次草选都拒绝参加。燕晓哲认为，魔门教徒身份的他或许自认不可能得到艾州福音教会和其它传统教会的鼎力支持。
直到11月凯恩因性丑闻宣布退选之后，金里奇民调压过自己奇迹般地升至第一时，才逼得罗姆尼调整竞选策略，增加了艾州的出场场次，而且还针对金里奇的婚姻主打起“美满婚姻牌”。
前两天他又邀到人气颇旺的新泽西州长克里斯蒂为自己“背书”。最近民调显示其支持率重回第一。值得一提的是，虽然其他候选人起伏不定，但罗姆尼的民调一直稳定在25%上下。
金里奇：高处不胜寒
前众议院议长金里奇在所有参选人中曾任职务最高，众议长在美国是位于总统和副总统之后的第三号人物。
但“高干”身份在他参选之初并没有给他带来多大好处，很长一段时间，他的民意支持率都很低迷。后得益于凯恩的退选，金里奇的民调一度升为第一，但随之而来的却是众人对他的“围攻”，他的三次婚姻、婚外情、接受房地美聘金等问题都成了众矢之的，这让金里奇着实体验了“高处不胜寒”的感觉，
奥巴马的一名白宫顾问就曾幸灾乐祸地说“猴子爬得越高屁股露得越多”。一语成谶，就在预选前几天，金里奇在多项民调中终于由榜首的位置被拉到第四、第五位。
保罗：大小保罗齐上阵
得克萨斯州联邦国会众议员保罗也曾参加过2008年的共和党提名竞选但同样落败。他对美国出兵阿富汗和伊拉克战争有“独到”见解，其中认为“美国出兵世界是找麻烦”的观点曾引起哗然。
许多人认为，过于激进的保罗一旦当选后政策将不可测，但或许也正是因为激进，他的支持率在2011年12月份持续上升，前几天还在第一名的位置上持续几天。燕晓哲认为，街头、校园造势是保罗最近支持率上升的主因。他在年轻共和党人群中支持率很高，而年轻人常常是激进一派。
燕晓哲还特别提到，保罗的儿子兰迪·保罗是共和党派生出来的茶党的领袖，也是去年当选的肯塔基州联邦众议员，他将在1月2日、3日赴艾奥瓦为父站台竞选。小保罗的亮相，相信会为老保罗带来茶党选民选票。
桑托罗姆：低成本的选举策略
最近最大一匹“黑马”非桑托罗姆莫属。从参选以来，他的支持率一直只有一位数，但选前四天，他在艾州的排名由倒数二、三名窜升到第三名，支持率也上了两位数达到16%。
燕晓哲透露，这位宾夕法尼亚州联邦参议员，从一开始就以非常低的预算与腰缠万贯的其他对手竞争，其在艾州的竞选办公室是最小的，人员也是最少的。
桑托罗姆大半年里一直处在快被忽略的位置上，以至于有美国脱口秀主持调侃说桑托罗姆又有消息宣布了，就是“我还在共和党提名人选战中”。
不过，桑托罗姆并未气馁，他全部走访了艾州的99个县，目标明确就是要在该州争取前三名，赢得全国知名度，其努力显然已获回报。
佩里：排场胜似总统
佩里在整个选战中很具戏剧性，作为大州、富州得克萨斯州长，他一出场就有势在必得、咄咄逼人的架势。据燕晓哲介绍，他在艾州每次出场，总有众多私人保镖前呼后拥，和总统有一比。而其他竞选人都是尽量做亲民姿态。
佩里在的电视广告最多，对金里奇的负面攻击广告多出自他手。不过，佩里的支持率没因此上升多少，反而罗姆尼等人倒跟着借力提升许多。
佩里的支持率也曾一度领先，然而他“祸从口出”，在11月一场辩论中，他鼓吹上任之后将关掉三个部门，但竟怎么也想不起第三个部门的名字。
这被称为美国总统辩论史上最糟糕的一幕，而且类似情况不止一次，这重创了他的形象，使其支持率降至五、六位。而在燕晓哲看来，过于保守的理念，也是选民与之疏远的原因。
巴赫曼：唯一的女候选人
明尼苏达州联邦国会女众议员巴赫曼也有大起大落经历。艾州正是她的出生地，此番回来参选颇有点“认祖归宗”的感觉。
一开始巴赫曼认亲还算成功，在八月艾州的第一次草选中无惊无险拿了第一。据燕晓哲介绍，当时她投入了大量的电视广告，花大量时间与民众接触并收到成效。
不过，好景不长，由于其他参选人开始发力，该州民众将注意力转到不同候选人身上。加上巴赫曼竞选班底有过动荡，这一切导致她的民调开始下滑至六、七名。燕晓哲分析认为其竞选策略有误，资金投入过多过早，而到了最后关头，却再无新篇广告。
最近两天传闻巴赫曼已向罗姆尼示好，有意成为副总统提名搭档。燕晓哲认为这个存在可能性，因为女性作为搭档，会有妇女票，同时巴赫曼是传统理念教会的人，可以冲淡罗姆尼摩门教徒可能带来的影响。
洪博培：唯一会说中文的候选人
前犹他州长洪博培为人熟知的身份是前美国驻华大使，他也是唯一会说中文的候选人。
据燕晓哲介绍，洪博培自宣布竞选以来只专注于一周之后即将开始初选的新罕布什尔州，他除了来艾州参加过一次电视辩论以外，彻底省略了所有艾州的竞选活动。多数分析认为他这次不是认真竞选，而意在将来。
自宣布参选以来，洪博培的支持率从未上过两位数，排名始终垫底，或许那句调侃桑托罗姆的话更适合洪博培——“我还在共和党提名人选战中”。
背景资料：亿万富豪罗姆尼
据《波士顿环球报》报道，早在2004年，罗姆尼就在亚利桑那、艾奥瓦等五个州建立“政治行动委员会”，通过将捐款者分布在不同地区的战略，在不违反联邦竞选法的情况下，争取更多的资金支持。罗姆尼个人有近3亿美元的资产，加上各地捐助，足可以与奥巴马相匹敌。奥巴马预计将竞选资金从2008年的7.5亿美元增加至10亿美元，但目前获得的政治捐助大多是小额捐献，资金实力略逊色于罗姆尼。
罗姆尼2007年曾参加2008年总统选举，凭借强大的资金和组织实力，他在预选最初阶段表现不错，一度在获得席位方面位居第一。然而，在5日“超级星期二”举行的21场共和党预选中，他获得的代表席位仅为175席，大大低于麦凯恩获得的504席，挽回局面已基本无望。2008年2月7日，罗姆尼宣布退出总统选举。尽管他最后没有成功，但他却赢得了更多的尊敬。       2008年的大选，尽管共和党输得惨不忍睹，但人们依然对4年后的2012年大选充满憧憬。尤其是在2010年共和党赢得国会中期选举之后，而罗姆尼也当仁不让的成为共和党内新的“领头羊”。
2011年4月11日，罗姆尼正式宣布角逐2012年美国总统。
相关专题：2012美国大选
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·艾奥瓦州初选被视为美国总统选举“风向标”
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·美国2012年大选拉开序幕 华裔选民或成关键少数The republican primary election start Mormon billionaires lead romney
In January, 2012, 03 04:25
Source:China news serviceThe author:WuQingCai
Text:T|T
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Arriving on January 2, WashingtonTopic: republican "under seven swords YiZhou" observers fine draw "election group"
China WuQingCai reporters
On January 3,, the President of the United States election first "QianShaoZhan" will be in the Midwest small state official campaign began, the republican seven "swordsman" is going to be "YiZhou sword", in this never directly.
As the long-term observation and depth in the American presidential campaign, experts, and Chinese association executive chairman YanXiaoZhe according to half a year with all of the candidates to close contact and observation to reporters described an republican candidates of "QunYingPu".
Romney: relatively stable leader
As a former governor of Massachusetts, mitt romney campaign in 2008 was over the republican nomination for President, his victory in the primary at best, but the results have to the second.
Perhaps is a summary of the last "input-output ratio, romney in re-election campaign announced, almost didn't show up in YiZhou, even the state of August a grass choose all refused to attend.YanXiaoZhe think, the door to the identity of the christians may think he can't get YiZhou Gospel church and other traditional church full support.
Until November Kane for sex scandal announced after withdrew from the race, gingrich and his surge miraculously rose to the first time, to make adjustment to romney campaign strategy, increased the YiZhou playing sequences, but also for gingrich marriage advocate make up "a perfect marriage" brand.
Two days before he and invited to the popularity of New Jersey governor Christie is quite popular for his "endorsed".Recent polls show that his approval rating back to the first.Be worth what carry is, although the other candidates ups and downs, but Mr Romney's polls have been steady at 25% and down.
Gingrich: the eminence be extremely and cold
Former house speaker gingrich in all the candidates have served the highest position, ZhongYiChang in the United States is located, the President and the vice President of the no. 3 after characters.
But "gao gan" identity in the beginning of his bid for and not brought him much benefit, for a long time, his approval ratings are very low.Thanks to the withdrew from the race after Kane, gingrich polls once promoted to the first, but it is all the to his "besieged", his three marriages, an affair, accept the real estate beauty all ask me never so much dowry relegation, this let gingrich really experience "the eminence be extremely and cold" feeling,
Obama's a White House advisers have said over the "monkey butt uncover the higher the more".Compared to a language, in a few days before the primary, gingrich in many polls by the position of the top finally is pulled into the fourth and fifth place.
Paul: size Paul neat go into battle
Texas Congressman Paul federal congress also took part in the 2008 republican nomination but also lost the battle.His presence in Afghanistan to the United States and Iraq war has "original" ideas, among them that "the U.S. troops the world is in trouble" point of view who caused outcry.
Many people believe that too radical Paul once elected policy will not test, but perhaps it is also for radical, his approval rating in December 2011, continue to rise, a few days ago is still in the first of the position for days.YanXiaoZhe think, the streets, the campus is Paul approval ratings rise recently ascribed alterations.His young crowd in republican support high, and young people often is a radical.
YanXiaoZhe also specifically mentioned, the son of Paul randy Paul is derived out tea party republican leader, is also elected last year Kentucky federal representatives, he will be in January 2, 3 days to Iowa campaign platform for the father.Small Paul's appearance, believe to be able to old Paul bring tea party voters vote.
TuoLuo mulberry's: low cost election strategy
Most recently a dark horse "the mulberry's TuoLuo belong.Since from running, his approval rating has been only a digits, but choose the first four days, he YiZhou ranking in the bottom two, three soared to third, approval ratings are on the two digits reached 16%.
YanXiaoZhe revealed, the Pennsylvania senator, from the beginning of a very low budget and wealthy other competitors, the YiZhou in the campaign office is the smallest, personnel is also the least.
TuoLuo mulberry's few months has been at fast neglected position, so much that has the United States talk show host joked that he and mulberry TuoLuo announced that, is "I'm still at the republican nominee campaign".
However, he did not TuoLuo mulberry discouraged, he visited the YiZhou all 99 counties, the clear goal is to fight for in the state's top three, to win the national awareness, its efforts to obviously has been the return.
Perry: ostentation and extravagance is the President
Perry in the whole campaign is very dramatic, as a big state, rich states Texas long, he starts in power will be, aggressive posture.According to YanXiaoZhe introduction, he played in YiZhou every time, always have numerous private bodyguards QianHuHouYong, and the President has a ratio.And the other candidates were 做亲 people attitude as far as possible.
Perry in television advertising the most, to gingrich's negative attacks from his hand more than advertising.However, perry's approval rating didn't so risen much, but romney who followed borrows many pour ascension.
Perry's approval rating also once lead, however he "a", in November a debate, he advocated after taking office will turn off three departments, but but how also can't remember the name of the third department.
This is called the President of the United States in the history of the debate bad scene, and similar situation more than once, it hit his image, so that his approval rating drop to five, six.And in YanXiaoZhe opinion, too conservative ideas, and are the cause of the voters and alienated.
Bach mann: the only woman candidate
Minnesota federal congress female representative Bach mann also have dramatic experience.YiZhou was her birthplace, this "quite a bit running back" RenZuGuiZong "feeling.
A man is RenQin started Bach's success, in August YiZhou first grass selected no surprised misses took the first.According to YanXiaoZhe introduced, at that time she spent a lot of television ads, and spend a lot of time reaching out to the public and favorable effect.
However, the good time for other candidates started to force, the state public will turn their attention to candidates who are different.Plus Bach's campaign team had unrest), all this led to her polls began to drop to six, seven.YanXiaoZhe analyzed that the campaign strategy is incorrect, money into too much early, and at the last moment, but there is no XinPian advertising.
Recent speculation has two days to romney Bach mann and good, intends to become vice President nominate partner.YanXiaoZhe think this existence possibility, because women as a partner, will have women's votes, and Bach mann is traditional idea of the church, can dilute romney mormons the possible effect.
HongBoPei: the only will speak Chinese candidate
Before long HongBoPei in Utah known identity is a former American ambassador, he is the only will speak Chinese candidate.
According to YanXiaoZhe introduction, HongBoPei since announced his candidacy has only focus on a week after the New Hampshire primary is about to start, but he YiZhou attended a TV debate beyond, completely omitted all YiZhou campaign.Most think he not serious, the analysis of the campaign, and to the future.
Since since announced his candidacy, HongBoPei's approval rating had never been to two digits, ranking always bottom, maybe the words from Tim TuoLuo ridicule words more suitable for HongBoPei-" I'm still at the republican nominee campaign ".
Background: the billionaires romney
According to the "Boston globe" report, as early as in 2004, romney in Iowa, Arizona, five states establish "political action committee", by donors in different regions of the distribution strategy, not in violation of federal election law in the case, strive for more financial support.Romney personal nearly $300 million of assets, plus all donations, enough to rival barack Obama.Obama is expected to campaign funds from $2008 in 750 million to $1 billion increase, but at present the political donations for most small donations, financial strength slightly inferior at romney.
Romney in 2007, took part in the 2008 presidential election, with strong capital and organizational strength, he did well in caucuses initial phase, once a gain membership was first aspects.However, in the 5 th "super Tuesday" of the 21 games held in the republican primary, he won the delegates to only 175 seats, is much lower than the 504 seats for McCain, save the situation has basic hopeless.On feb. 7, 2008, romney exit presidential election.Although his final without success, but he has won more respect.The 2008 elections, although the republicans lose miserable, but people still for four years later, the 2012 election full of dreams.Especially in the 2010 republican win after mid-term congressional elections, and Mr Romney objective is to become the republican party new "leaders".
On April 11, 2011, romney officially announced that enter the 2012 the President of the United States.