废柴兄弟艾玛多少岁:视点：金正日的逝世对缓和朝美关系有帮助吗？

译者 youngrice

Viewpoint: Will Kim's death aid US ties?

视点：金正日的逝世对缓和朝美关系有帮助吗？

Donald P Gregg US Ambassador to South Korea 1989-93

Donald P Gregg 1989-93年担任美国驻韩国大使

How world leaders react to Mr Kim's death will determine ties with the new regime

世界领袖们对金正日的逝世作何反应，将会决定其所在国家和后金正日时代新政权的关系。

Kim Jong-il's death should not have come as a complete surprise to anyone, given his tenuous health.

基于金正日糟糕的身体状况，他的死亡对朝鲜人来说本不应感到突然和惊讶。

But it is safe to say that the North Koreans would have very much preferred that he lived one more year, so that in 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, his father, Kim Jong-il would have been on hand to pay homage to "the Great Leader".

但是，用一种较为可靠的方式来讲，朝鲜人民非常希望他能再多活一年。这样的话，他就可以在其父亲金日成100周年诞辰的2012年，亲自向“伟大的领袖”表达敬意了。

Now that lot will fall to Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il's youngest son who has been put forward as the natural and fully prepared successor to his father.

现在，这件事落到了金正恩的身上。他是金正日最小的儿子，很自然的且在充分准备的条件下被推举为其父的接班人。

I'm sure there is great scurrying around, particularly in Seoul and Washington, so that our responses are well co-ordinated.

我确信，世界各国都正在急于应对这一突发事件，特别是首尔和华盛顿当局。因此，我们对此事的立场还需要进一步协调。

That is as it should be, but my hope is that the succession process in Pyongyang will be allowed to play out.

事情本来就是这样发展的，但是我还是希望，平壤的权利移交程序能够被允许顺利完成。

I hope that the US will accept Kim Jong-un's succession in as gracious a manner as possible.

我希望美国能够尽量以善意的姿态接受金正恩继任这一事实。

The first responses from Washington, Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing will be weighed very carefully by Pyongyang, and will have considerable impact on future relations with the countries concerned.

平壤当局将非常谨慎的衡量来自华盛顿、首尔、东京和北京的首次回应，这将会在很大程度上影响到朝鲜和相关国家的未来关系。

When Kim Il-sung died in 1994, the rather rude remarks made by the South Korean president at that time, Kim Young-sam, soured relations for the remainder of his presidency.

金日成1994年逝世的时候，当时的韩国总统金泳三对其恶语相向，这使其在剩余任期内与朝鲜一直关系紧张。

In contrast, Bill Clinton's more courteous remarks paved the way for the signing of the Agreed Framework, covering North Korea's nuclear developments, late in 1994.

与此形成对比的是，比尔克林顿善意的表态为1994年底框架协议的签订铺平了道路，协议涉及朝鲜核发展这一核心内容。

I think it is very positive that just a few days ago US and North Korean officials met in Beijing to discuss modalities for a resumption of American economic aid to the North.

几天前的朝美官员北京会谈具有积极意义。这一会议旨在讨论美国恢复对朝鲜经济援助的相关程序问题。

This was a step forward, and we should attempt to build upon it.

这是前进的一步，我们应该努力促成这件事。

Kim Jong-un was educated in part in Switzerland, speaks some English, and knows far more about the West than either his father or his grandfather. This is also potentially positive.

金正恩曾在瑞士接受过教育，会说一些英语。他比他的祖父或父亲更了解西方，这一点具有潜在的积极意义。

Finally, it should be recognised that the politics of South Korea are quite tumultuous, and that their presidential election comes shortly after ours.

然而，不得不承认，韩国的政治更加热闹一些。韩国的总统选举就在美国总统选举后不久举行。

It is quite possible that South Korea's next president may take a softer line toward the North than that of the current president, Lee Myung-bak.

在对朝关系上，韩国的下一届总统很可能采取比现任总统李明博更加温和的立场。

So all in all, I take Kim Jong-il's death as a natural event, that will be deeply mourned in North Korea, but may eventually open up a new and more hopeful chapter in Pyongyang's relations with the outside world.

总之，我认为金正日的死是个自然事件。虽然朝鲜整个国家都陷入深切哀悼的悲痛之中，但是，金正日之死最终会在朝鲜与外部世界的关系上打开新的、更有希望的一页。