稳中求进 扩大内需（特别策划）

——解读中央经济工作会议要点与亮点

本报记者

2011年12月15日00:00    来源：人民网-《人民日报》     手机看新闻

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　　刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议指出，面对复杂多变的国际政治经济环境和国内经济运行新情况新变化，必须继续抓住科学发展这个主题和加快转变经济发展方式这条主线，牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点；牢牢把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础；牢牢把握加快改革创新这一强大动力；牢牢把握保障和改善民生这一根本目的。

　　①总基调

　　为何要稳中求进

　　是中央根据国际国内形势变化作出的实事求是的科学决策，为未来10年甚至20年的平稳较快增长创造条件

　　“'又好又快’是我们长期追求的发展状态。欧债危机的演化存在很大的不确定性，对我国经济下行的压力不可小觑。确定'稳中求进’的总基调，是中央根据国际国内形势变化作出的实事求是的科学决策。”国务院参事室参事汤敏接受记者采访时说。

　　今年以来，世界经济增长放缓，国际贸易增速回落，国际金融市场剧烈动荡，各类风险明显增多。展望明年，世界经济形势总体上仍将十分严峻复杂，世界经济复苏的不稳定性不确定性上升。因此，中央经济工作会议明确提出，明年经济工作的总基调是“稳中求进”。

　　欧美等主要经济体都受到债务危机的困扰，明年经济增速可能进一步放缓。在外需面临下滑风险的同时，国内受房地产调控等因素影响下，投资增速可能进一步下滑。清华大学经管学院副院长白重恩认为，明年经济增速下行的风险加大，在增长方面应当“稳”字当头。

　　所谓“稳”，就是要保持宏观经济政策基本稳定，保持经济平稳较快发展，保持物价总水平基本稳定，保持社会大局稳定。

　　“物价压力回落之后，保持宏观经济的平稳——平稳的经济环境、平稳的政策环境就很重要了。”国务院发展研究中心金融所副所长巴曙松对记者说。他分析认为，通常只有在经济回落的通道中，才会产生转型的内生动力和改革的共识，在一个平稳的环境也容易形成经济新的增长点，包括利率、汇率的调整，资源要素价格的调整，农村金融服务的调整。

　　所谓“进”，就是要继续抓住和用好我国发展的重要战略机遇期，在转变经济发展方式上取得新进展，在深化改革开放上取得新突破，在改善民生上取得新成效。

　　“'求进’，中央强调的其实是加快结构调整和经济转型。”白重恩说，“当前'求进’的核心是扩大内需，切实提高最终消费在国民经济的比重。”

　　“明年把保持经济的平稳较快增长放在首要地位，就是说要通过经济发展方式的转变，来支持经济的平稳较快发展，同时要巩固今年抑制通胀的成果。这个变化是根据经济运行的实际所提出来的具有针对性的战略决策。”中央政策研究室原副主任、中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长郑新立说。

　　他分析认为，当前的宏观调控顺序调整为“稳增长、控物价、调结构”。由于今年通货膨胀压力很大，所以在宏观调控上，不得不把抑制通胀放在宏观调控的首要地位，相应地，转变经济发展方式有所放松。随着今年下半年和明年通胀的压力有所缓解，应当适时地把宏观调控的重点转到转变经济发展方式上。也只有转变经济发展方式，才能够实现既抑制通胀又保持稳定增长这样一个双重目标。

　　“转变发展方式，是要解决经济运行中间的一些深层次矛盾，要调整经济结构里重大的扭曲关系。如果实现发展方式转变上有突破，我们不仅能够在明年保持物价稳定，而且能够实现稳定的经济增长，还能为整个'十二五’和未来10年甚至20年的平稳较快增长创造条件。”郑新立强调。

　　②扩大内需

　　为何是战略基点

　　长期支持我国高增长的外贸今后对经济拉动将减弱，中国经济的增长必将主要靠内需来拉动

　　中央经济工作会议要求，必须继续抓住科学发展这个主题和加快转变经济发展方式这条主线，牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点，把扩大内需的重点更多放在保障和改善民生、加快发展服务业、提高中等收入者比重上来。

　　有分析认为，当前经济结构存在的一个重要问题就是消费需求不足，经济增长过于依赖投资需求。改革开放以来，剔除价格因素后我国投资需求每年的增长率都在13.5%左右，这比世界平均水平高出差不多一倍。在国际社会，经济增长10个点中消费需求会占6到7个点，而我国与此相反。另外，在2003年到2007年间我国平均经济增长率是10.6%，这里面有2.6%是出口贡献的。

　　“'中等收入陷阱’的形成原因中，非常重要的一条就是国际市场波动对本国经济增长的稳定性的影响太大。要摆脱对外需的过度依赖就需要发展内需，转变经济发展方式，提高制度和技术创新的能力。这不是短期的政策能解决的，需要长期通过制度的变化来解决。”北京大学副校长刘伟说。

　　“发展方式转变最重要的就是降低投资率、提高消费率。如果'十二五’期间能使居民消费率提高10个百分点，即由现在的34%提高到44%，那就意味着我们每年能新增一两万亿元的商品销售。”郑新立说。

　　去年，我国的投资率上升到48.6%的历史最高水平，比前年又提高了1.1个百分点，而且最终消费率第一次低于投资率，只有百分之四十七点几。这意味着，去年我们生产的产品里面有将近一半是用来扩大再生产的，老百姓消费比投资的还要少，这种结构处在极度扭曲的状态，是不可持续的。

　　在拉动国民经济增长的三驾马车中，由于欧美弱增长对我国出口的带动还将回落，长期支持我国高增长的外贸，今后对经济拉动作用将减弱，中国经济的增长最终必然要靠内需。“内需包括消费和投资。我国的消费潜力非常大。中央提出'稳中求进’，最可靠的途径是增加消费，因为消费增长有别于投资的最大优点是平稳。投资可能大起大落，消费真正激发起来的话，就能保持国民经济长期平稳增长。”巴曙松对记者说。

　　在扩大消费方面，减税措施明年会发挥比较好的效果。中小企业和居民税负减轻，能够为消费提供一定的支撑。此外，我国可以通过发展消费信贷、培育新的消费热点等途径扩大居民的最终消费。文化、休闲、汽车等消费市场还有很大的增长空间，在合理控制的前提下，居民的住房需求也应该得到更好满足。

　　白重恩认为，明年财政支出规模可以适当扩大，在这个基础上应该加大民生领域的投入，更加重视民生投入的效果。在民生支出上，一方面要更加重视效果，比如教育支出，更应该考虑的是公平，重视农村、农民工子女的入学，另一方面也要重视是否可以持续，要考虑到我国今后将会进入老龄化社会。只有民生领域投入的规模和效益提高了，增加了居民的收入，减少了老百姓的社会负担，增强其对未来的安定感，扩大消费才能具有基础。

　　③实体经济

　　战略意义何在

　　只有实体经济发展了，经济增长才能平稳

　　中央经济工作会议强调，要牢牢把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础，努力营造鼓励脚踏实地、勤劳创业、实业致富的社会氛围。

　　“只有实体经济发展起来，经济增长才能平稳。”巴曙松说，实体经济的投资主体是基础设施、房地产、制造业。房地产调控后持续回落，基础设施也不可能再大规模扩张，因此就是要扶持制造业发展，提高竞争力，通过创新也好，通过税收的扶持也好，通过结构性减税也好。这也属于“稳中求进”中“稳”的部分。

　　“实体经济盈利空间受到挤压，是我国宏观经济中一个非常严重的问题。明年一定要通过降低中小企业税费、理顺能源资源价格机制等方面，真正让做实业的企业有奔头。只有这样才能避免产业'空心化’。” 复旦大学经济学院副院长孙立坚说。

　　今年中小企业经营难的问题非常突出，实体经济经营环境恶化。不少资金进入战略性新兴产业，但由于没有核心技术，实际上也没有取得很好的业绩，真正的盈利是通过委托贷款等形式，做新兴产业实际上只保留了一个壳。

　　中小企业资金紧张最为突出的表现之一，就是个体经营投资总额出现大幅度下滑。今年1—9月投资总额同比回落了16%左右，部分中小企业停产。中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘元春认为，原因在于：一是总量性货币政策收缩导致资金投放偏向性效应加剧，使缺少资本金、抵押品和资信的中小企业融资难；二是资源性原材料和基础产品价格的上涨进一步压缩了部分没有转型的中小企业的利润，使其内源性资金来源更为紧张；三是大量资金流向泡沫领域。

　　分析认为，经济泡沫的持续和数量性货币政策的调控，直接导致中国金融资源虚拟化，监管套利诱发影子银行大行其道，中国金融资源的错配与金融价格的扭曲快速恶化，资金对于实体经济增长的支持大幅度弱化。经济出现明显分化——虚拟经济大量侵蚀实体经济的利润，上游垄断性基础产业大量侵蚀下游生产性产业利润，大中型企业与中小型企业在融资环境和财务绩效等方面发生分化。

　　因此孙立坚认为，目前“中小企业融资难”的根源不在于货币政策收紧和成本上涨，而在于经济泡沫和金融扭曲导致的套利收益远远大于正常经营的收益，导致中小企业资金搬家到泡沫领域。今后，金融机构应响应中央经济工作会议的号召，把信贷资金更多投向实体经济，特别是“三农”和中小企业。

　　④宏观政策

　　如何预调微调

　　必须统筹处理速度、结构、物价三者关系，特别是要把解决经济社会发展中的突出矛盾和问题、有效防范经济运行中的潜在风险放在宏观调控的重要位置

　　中央经济工作会议强调，明年的经济工作必须统筹处理速度、结构、物价三者关系，特别是要把解决经济社会发展中的突出矛盾和问题、有效防范经济运行中的潜在风险放在宏观调控的重要位置。要深入分析经济发展和运行趋势变化，准确把握宏观调控的力度、节奏、重点。

　　明年继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，保持了今年宏观调控政策的连续性和稳定性。“在具体实施上，应当更侧重于把积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策有机结合起来，围绕转变发展方式的任务，通过财政政策引导信贷的投向，引导社会资金的投向，把整个社会资金包括银行的资金，引导到结构调整所需要的方向上来，引导到转变发展方式所需要的行业上来。”郑新立说。

　　他认为，这样既消化了银行过剩的流动性，有利于缓解通胀的压力，同时又把这些资金集中使用到转变发展方式所需要的方向上来，具体来说，就是把资金引导到战略性新兴产业、服务业、农业现代化、基础设施和公共服务、海外投资上来。

　　“对明年的通胀压力，我们仍然不能掉以轻心。”孙立坚说，当前，央行通过采取下调存款准备金率的办法释放一定的流动性，然后有通胀则发行较大规模的央票来回收流动性。“我认为，这种办法是非常可取的。表面上看，这种技术性操作对流动性规模的改变不大，但实际上给今后货币政策的操作预留了一定的空间。因为目前存款准备金率已经到了一个难以上调的高度。明年在货币政策方面，我们还是要以稳为主，不能过于频繁地使用货币政策工具，更不能采取相对宽松的货币政策。”

　　在货币政策的操作上，专家认为，采取存款准备金率调整还有一定的空间，但当前最好不要采取降息的措施。当前我国负利率的状况还没有改变，如果降息的话，可能会造成进一步的金融扭曲和资金错配。

　　汤敏认为，明年的通胀压力仍然不小，要在防通胀与稳增长之间取得平衡，实际上有一定的难度。今年最后几个月CPI虽然有比较显著的下滑，但这其中有季节性因素，也有统计上翘尾因素逐步减小的原因。因此，物价调控的基础还很不牢固。今后国际粮价可能继续走高，大宗商品价格也可能继续攀升，我国的劳动力成本也会上涨，这些因素都决定了我国调控通胀的压力仍然非常大。国内流动性过剩的问题还客观存在，明年货币政策绝对不能放松。

　　货币政策不能放松，但是对中小企业和“三农”领域还是要网开一面。因此，货币政策必须更具灵活性和针对性。

　　财政部财政科学研究所副所长苏明表示，明年积极的财政政策，相比今年还需要有一定的调整。比如，针对经济增速可能出现下滑的态势，要加大结构性减税的力度，尤其对中小企业的税费一定要减免和规范，在流转税方面还可以出台一些减免的措施。财政资金的投入一定要和结构调整结合起来，通过财政资金的投向更好地引导产业结构调整。比如，财政资金可以更多地用于支持战略性新兴产业的发展，并对这些行业的企业进一步减免税收。

　　对于地方债务问题，专家分析认为，中央在清理和规范地方融资平台的同时，不能对地方债务采取完全“封死”的做法，而是要采取疏导的办法。目前我国地方债务规模并不算大，只要处理得当，风险完全可控。明年可在四省份试点自行发债的基础上，进一步扩大试点范围，使得地方政府既能够获得正常的融资渠道，也可保证融资方式和规模更加公开透明。

　　“全球化时代中国经济跟外部经济的互动非常密切，要灵活地针对外部的不确定性，及时做调整。2012年不确定因素比较多，走向不一样，我们内部的调整也就不一样。”巴曙松说。比如欧美会不会再次大规模启动量化宽松？如果不启动，经济继续回落，国内扩大内需的力度还要加码；如果量化宽松，导致流动性泛滥，热钱流入，就是另外的问题了，准备金率下调的空间就不大了，还得对冲。

　　（本报记者邓建胜、李丽辉、沈寅、刘先云、熊建、林丽鹂、马冰一集体采写）

中国确定明年经济工作六大目标 稳增长居首

2011年12月14日14:47    来源：中国新闻网     手机看新闻

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　　中央经济工作会议12月12日至14日在北京举行。会议认为，明年中国经济工作的主要目标是稳增长、控物价、调结构、惠民生、抓改革、促和谐。稳增长替代控物价，成为未来一段时间宏观调控的首要任务。

　　会议指出，稳增长，就是坚持扩大内需、稳定外需，努力克服国内外各种不稳定、不确定因素的影响，及时解决苗头性、倾向性问题，保持经济平稳运行。

　　控物价，就是继续采取综合措施，保持物价总水平基本稳定，防止价格走势出现反弹。

　　调结构，就是突出主题，贯穿主线，有扶有控，提高经济增长质量和效益，增强发展的协调性和可持续性。

　　惠民生，就是把保障改善民生放在更加突出的位置，集中解决紧迫性问题，切实办成一些让人民群众看得见、得实惠的好事实事。

　　抓改革，就是以更大的决心和气力推进改革开放，着力解决影响经济长期健康发展的体制性、结构性矛盾，在一些重点领域和关键环节取得新的突破，以开放促改革、促发展、促创新。

　　促和谐，就是正确处理改革发展稳定关系，积极有效化解各种矛盾和风险隐患，促进社会和谐稳定。

　　会议强调，要坚持统筹兼顾，切实把握好各项目标之间的平衡，稳中求进。

　　会议并称，做好明年经济工作，必须加强和改进党对经济工作的领导，着力提高推动科学发展、维护社会和谐稳定能力和水平。要坚持统筹兼顾，处理好各方面重大关系，推动经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设以及生态文明建设协调发展。

WenZhongQiuJin expanding domestic demand (special planning)

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December 15, 2011 00:00    Source:PRC-the People's Daily     Cell phone watch the news

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　　 Graphics: CaiHuaWei

Just closing of the central economic work conference points out, in a complicated and volatile international political and economic environment and the domestic economy run new situation the new change, must continue to catch the scientific development and to speed up the theme transformation of the mode of economic development this strands, hold the expansion of domestic demand this strategic basis points;Firmly grasp entity economy development the solid foundation;To speed up the reform and innovation firmly grasp the strong power;Firmly grasp the people's livelihood guarantee and improve the basic goal.

　　(1) total fundamental key

Why WenZhongQiuJin

　　According to the international and domestic situations is central to changes of scientific decision of seeking truth from facts, for the next 10 years or 20 years of steady and fast growth creates the condition

"' quickly and well" is our pursuit of long-term development state. The debt crisis the evolution of the uncertainty of the existence of our country, the pressure of economic downside cannot small gaze. Sure WenZhongQiuJin 'total' fundamental key, according to the international and domestic situations is central to changes of seeking truth from facts of scientific decision."The state council CanShiShi adviser ShangMin told reporters.

Since this year, world economic growth slowed, international trade growth fell back, international financial market violent unrest, all kinds of risk significantly increased.Looking to next year, the world economic situation in general will still very serious complex, the world economic recovery of stability uncertainty.Therefore, the central economic work conference clearly stated that the economic work of next year total fundamental key is "WenZhongQiuJin".

Europe and the United States and other major economy beset by debt crisis, economic growth could slow further next year.Facing a downturn in the economy by the risk at the same time, domestic real estate regulation by factors such as the influence, the investment growth may decline further.Tsinghua university, vice President of the college charge BaiChongEn think next year, the economic growth of the downside risk increase in growth should be "stable" character overhead.

The so-called "stable", is to maintain the basic stability of macroeconomic policy, keep fast yet steady economic development and keep the general level of commodity prices steady basic, maintain social stability.

"The price pressure after the fall, keep the macroeconomic steady-a stable economic environment, stable policy environment is very important."The state council development research center, deputy director of the finance has BaShuSong told reporters.His analysis, it usually only in economic downturn in the channel, will produce a transformation of the power and the reform of endogenous consensus, in a stable environment is also easy to form new economic growth point, including interest rates, the exchange rate adjustments, resource elements price adjustment, the adjustment of rural financial services.

The so-called "into" is to continue to hold and make good use of China's development of the important period of strategic opportunities, in the transformation of the mode of economic development to make new progress in the deepening reform and opening make new breakthrough in the, in the improvement of people's life to make new achievements.

"' ', the central emphasis of entrants are actually speed up the structure and economic transformation."BaiChongEn said, "the current management of the core is" "the expansion of domestic demand, improve the final consumption in the national economy of proportion."

"Next year to keep the stable and rapid economic growth on first position, it is through changing the model of economic development, to support economic development, at the same time, the steady and fast to consolidate inflation this year's results. This change is the actual operation of the economy that has pointed out of the strategic decision."The former vice director of the policy research, China international economic exchange center deputy chairman of the standing ZhengXinLi said.

He analyzed that, the current macro-control order changed to "steady growth, control prices, adjustable structure".Because inflation this year under a lot of pressure, so in macroeconomic regulation, had to curb inflation in macroeconomic regulation and control first priority, accordingly, transformation of the mode of economic development to relax.As the second half of this year and next, the pressure to ease inflation, it shall timely macroeconomic regulation to focus on the transformation of the mode of economic development.Also only transformation of the mode of economic development, to realize both inflation and keep the stable growth of such a dual goal.

"Change development way, is to solve economic operation of the deep contradictions among some, to the adjustment of economic structure in the major distorted relationship. If realize development mode change on a breakthrough in the next year, we can not only keep prices stable, but also to realize the stable economic growth, and it can give the whole '1025' and the next 10 years or 20 years of steady and fast growth to create conditions."ZhengXinLi emphasis.

　　(2) the expansion of domestic demand

Why is the strategic basis points

Long-term growth in the future of our country foreign trade support to pull the economy will be weak, the growth of China's economy will depend mainly on domestic demand to pull

The central economic work conference requirement, must continue to catch the scientific development and to speed up the theme transformation of the mode of economic development this strands, hold the expansion of domestic demand this strategic basis points, to expand domestic demand more emphasis on the guarantee and improve the people's livelihood, to speed up the development of service industry, improve the proportion of middle-income earners to come up.

Analysts think that the current economic structure of the existing one important problem is the consumption demand, economic growth is too dependent on investment demand.Since the reform and opening, eliminate price factors in China every year after investment demand of the growth rate of around 13.5%, which is more than the world average almost twice as many.In the international society, economic growth 10 points of consumption demand will 6 to 7 points, and our country and the contrary.In addition, in 2003 to 2007 economic growth rate in China is 10.6% on average, there are 2.6% of the export of contribution.

'middle income trap' cause of formation of the, very important one is the international market fluctuations on the stability of the economic growth of the country too much influence. To get out of the excessive dependence on foreign need is need to develop domestic demand, the transformation of the mode of economic development, improve the system and technical innovation ability. This is not short-term policy can solve, need long-term of the institutional change to solve."Beijing university vice President liu wei said.

"Development mode change the most important is to reduce the rate of investment, consumption rate increase. If '1025' consumption during can make increased by 10%, the 34% now increased to 44%, and that means that we can 12 trillion New Year yuan goods sales."ZhengXinLi said.

Last year, China's investment rate of up to 48.6% of the highest level of history, and also to improve the 1.1% than the year before, and finally the first time consuming rate lower than the rate of investment, only forty percent a few at seven o 'clock.This means that, last year we production products inside have nearly half is used to expand production, common people spending even less than the investment, the structure is in extreme distortion of the state, is unsustainable.

In the driving force of economic growth in the three carriages, due to the weak growth in Europe and America on China's export drive also will fall, long-term growth in China's foreign trade support, future economic pull function will abate, the growth of China's economy will eventually want to rely on domestic demand."Domestic demand include consumer and investment. China's consumption potential is very big. Central authorities' WenZhongQiuJin ', the most reliable way is to increase spending, because the consumption growth is different from the investment the biggest advantage is stable. Investment may be falling, consumer really motivated, would maintain long-term steady growth of the national economy."BaShuSong told reporters.

In expanding the consumer, tax cuts next year will play better effect.Small and medium-sized enterprises and the tax burden reduce residents, can offer some support for consumption.In addition, our country can through the development of the consumer credit and developing new consumption hotspot expand the way such as residents ultimately consumed.Culture and leisure, auto and other consumer market to have the very big growth space, in the reasonable control, under the premise of the housing needs of residents also should get better satisfy.

BaiChongEn think, next year financial expenditure scale can be appropriately expanded, on this basis, should increase the livelihood of the people in the field of investment, pay more attention to the livelihood of the people into effect.In the livelihood of the people on spending, on one hand we should pay more attention to effect, such as education spending, more should consider is fair, pay attention to the rural migrant children, the entrance, on the other hand also want to pay attention to whether can be sustained, want to consider in the future in China will go into aging society.Only the people's livelihood of input in scale and benefit raised, increase the income of the residents, reduce the common people's social burden, to enhance its future peace and expanding the consumer can have the foundation.

　　(3) economic entity

Strategic significance

Only the real economy, economic growth can smoothly

The central economic work conference, stressed that firmly grasp entity economy development the solid foundation, trying to create encourage his feet on the ground, industry, business and industry rich social atmosphere.

"Only the real economy up, economic growth can smoothly."BaShuSong said, the entity economy the main body of investment in infrastructure, real estate, manufacturing.Real estate regulation continued after back and infrastructure is not likely to large expansion, so is to support manufacturing development and increase the competitive power, through the innovation or through to the support of the tax or through the structural or tax cuts.It also belongs to "WenZhongQiuJin" in "stable" part.

"The real economy by extrusion, is profitable space of the macro economy in a very serious problem. Next year by small and medium-sized enterprises must reduce taxes, energy resources to straighten out the price system and so on, real let industrial enterprise have BenTou do. Only in this way can we avoid industry 'KongXinHua'."Fudan university, vice President of the school of economics SunLiJian said.

Small and medium-sized enterprise management this year the difficult question is very outstanding, the entity economy management environment deterioration.A lot of money into the strategic new industry, but with no core technology and, in fact, did not obtain very good performance, the real profit is through the entrust loan and other forms, do new industries in fact withheld only a shell.

Small and medium-sized enterprise funds the most outstanding performance is one of individual manage the total amount of investment appears fell significantly.1-September this year total investment of about 16% year-on-year fell, some small and medium-sized enterprise production.The people's university of China economy, vice President of the college LiuYuanChun think, the reason is that: one is the overall monetary policy to put money to contraction effect increased, that lack of capital, collateral and credit of small and medium-sized enterprises financing;2 it is raw material and resource based product prices further compressed the part does not have the transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises of the profits of the business, make its endogenous financing source more nervous;Three is a large amount of money to flow to the bubble areas.

Analysis thinks, the economic bubble continued and the quantity of the regulation of monetary policy, led directly to the China's financial resources virtualization, regulatory arbitrage induce shadow Banks popular, China's financial resources and financial price a mismatch in the distortion of the rapid deterioration, capital of economic growth for the entity support greatly weakened.There is a clear economic differentiation-a virtual economy erosion entity economic profits, the foundation of monopoly industries downstream productive industry profit erosion, large and medium-sized enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises financing environment and financial performance had differentiated.

So SunLiJian thinks, at present the "small and medium enterprise financing" is not the source of the monetary policy tightening and rising costs, but in economic bubble and financial distortion causes arbitrage is far greater than the normal business income gains, lead to small and medium-sized enterprise capital move to bubble areas.In the future, financial institutions should response central economic work conference call, the credit funds to the real economy more, especially "agriculture, countryside and farmers" and small and medium-sized enterprises.

　　(4) the macro policy

How to fine-tune under attack

Must resolve speed, structure, price relationship, especially to solve economic and social development of the prominent contradictions and problems, effectively preventing economic operation of the potential risk in macroeconomic regulation and control of an important position

The central economic work conference stressed that next year's economic work must resolve speed, structure, price relationship, especially to solve economic and social development of the prominent contradictions and problems, effectively preventing economic operation of the potential risk in macroeconomic regulation and control of an important position.To further analysis of economic development and operation trend change, an accurate grasp of macroeconomic regulation and control of strength, rhythm, key.

Next year continues to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, keep this year the macroeconomic regulation and control policy continuity and stability."In the concrete implementation, should be more focus on the positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy organically, change the way of development on tasks, and through fiscal policy guide credit to guide society, to fund the social capital of funds, including bank to direct structure adjustment need up to change direction, and guide the development mode of the industry to come up."ZhengXinLi said.

He thought, such already digest the excess liquidity, bank, can help to alleviate the pressure of inflation, at the same time, these capital to focus on using to change the direction of the development ways need to come up, specifically, is to guide to strategic new industry funds, service industry and agriculture modernization, infrastructure and public service, overseas investment up.

"For next year's inflation pressure, we still cannot treat STH lightly."SunLiJian says, current, the central bank to cut through the deposit reserve rate to release certain of liquidity, and then have inflation is a large-scale central issue tickets to recycling liquidity."I think, this kind of method is very desirable. On the surface, the technical operations of liquidity scale change is not big, but in fact for the monetary policy operation obligate certain space. For now, the deposit reserve rate has reached a difficult to raise the height of the next year in monetary policy. We still want to with be give priority to, can't too frequent use of monetary policy tools, more can't take relatively loose monetary policy."

In the operation of the monetary policy, experts say, take the deposit reserve rate adjustment and a certain space, but the current had better not take measures to cut interest rates.The current situation of our country and socan lend does not change, if cut rates would, may cause further financial distortion and capital mismatch.

ShangMin think, next year's inflation pressure still not small, to prevent inflation and steady growth in balance, actually has the certain difficulty.The final months of this year, although there is a notable CPI fell, but there are seasonal factors and statistics QiaoWei factors reduced gradually reasons.Therefore, the price regulation of the foundation is not strong.In the future international food prices could continue to go up, commodity prices could also continue to climb, China's labor costs will rise, these factors have decided the regulation inflationary pressure in China still very high.Domestic liquidity problem is objective existence, monetary policy cannot relax next year.

Monetary policy cannot relax, but for small and medium-sized enterprises and of "agriculture, countryside and farmers" field or to bend.Therefore, monetary policy must be more flexibility and pertinence.

The Treasury financial science, deputy director of institute SuMing next year, said the positive fiscal policy, this year also compared to a certain adjustment.For example, in view of the economic growth may drop the situation, to increase the strength of structural tax cuts, especially for small and medium-sized enterprise taxes must reduction and standard, in the turnover tax aspects can also issued some relief measures.The finance fund's investment must and structure adjustment combined, through the financial capital to better guide industry structure adjustment.For example, financial funds can be used to support more strategic emerging industry development, and for the industry enterprise further tax cuts.

For local debt problem, expert analyzes believed that the central in the cleaning up and regulate the local financing platform at the same time, not to place debt take a completely "blocked" approach, but to take counseling method.At present our country debt scale does not calculate in a big place, should handle only proper, the risk is completely controlled.Next year in four provinces by pilot can be translated, and on the basis of further expand the scope, the local government can either get normal financing channel, also can ensure financing ways and scale more openly.

"China's economic globalization era with external economic interaction very close to flexibly, for external uncertainty, in time for adjustment. 2012 uncertainty is more, to different, our in-house adjustment is different also."BaShuSong said.Such as Europe and the United States will not start again large-scale quantitative loose?If don't start, the economy continues to fall, the domestic expanding domestic demand to the strength of the pyramid;If quantitative loose, lead to liquidity flood, hot money inflows, and that is another problem, the rate cut space reserve is, still have to hedge.

(our reporter DengJianSheng, LiLiHui, ShenYin, LiuXianYun, XiongJian, li Lin Li, MaBing a collective up to date)Contact this paper reporter
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