武汉和平中学图片:印度VS中国：谁的经济更为出色

经济学家和商界人士不可避免地会将亚洲两个正在崛起的巨人——中国和印度拿来做比较，而中国差不多总是可以脱颖而出。

The Chinese economy historically outpaces India's by just about every measure. China's fast-acting government implements new policies with blinding speed, making India's fractured political system appear sluggish and chaotic. Beijing's shiny new airport and wide freeways are models of modern development, contrasting sharply with the sagging infrastructure of New Delhi and Mumbai. And as the global economy emerges from the Great Recession, India once again seems to be playing second fiddle. Pundits around the world laud China's leadership for its well-devised economic policies during the crisis, which were so effective in restarting economic growth that they helped lift the entire Asian region out of the downturn.

追忆历史，中国经济几乎在每一项措施上都超越了印度。中国高效快速的政府以令人炫目的速度实施着新政策，这使得印度支离破碎的政治体系看上去迟钝无力，且混乱不堪。北京光鲜亮丽的新机场和宽阔的高速公路是现代化发展的模板，而新德里和孟买破败落后的基础设施则形成了鲜明的对比。随着全球经济从大萧条中开始复苏，印度看上去将再次扮演次要的角色。世界各地的专家都称赞中国在危机期间以其妥善周全的经济政策展现了领导风范。在重启经济发展引擎的过程中，中国的应对之策极为有效，进而带动整个亚洲地区从衰退的泥潭中走了出来。

(Read "Amid Recovery, China's Property Market Soars.")

（阅读：《复苏之中，中国的房地产市场飞速增长》）

Now, however, India may finally have one up on its high-octane rival. Though India still can't compete on top-line economic growth — the World Bank projects India's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 6.4% in 2009, far short of the 8.7% that China announced in mid-January – India's economy looks to be rebounding from the downturn in better shape than China's. India doesn't appear to be facing the same degree of potential dangers and downside risks as China, which means policymakers in New Delhi might have a much easier task in maintaining the economy's momentum than their Chinese counterparts. "The way I see it is that the growth in India is much more sustainable" than the growth in China, says Jim Walker, an economist at Hong Kong–based research firm Asianomics.

然而，现在印度也许有一个方面令它强劲的对手望尘莫及。尽管在最引人关注的经济增长率上，印度无法与中国相抗衡——世界银行预测印度2009年GDP将会有6.4%的增长，这与与中国官方一月中旬公布的8.7%的数字相比相形见绌——但是印度经济从低谷中反弹的形态看似比中国要好一些。印度经济并没有像中国一样暴露出一定程度的潜在下行风险，这意味着新德里的决策者们在保持经济增长势头方面的任务要比中国同行轻松得多。香港一家研究公司Asianomics的经济学家吉姆-沃克说，“我认为印度经济增长的可持续性比中国要好多了。”

India's edge is due to the different stimulus programs adopted by the two countries to support growth during the downturn. China implemented what Walker calls "the biggest stimulus program in global history." On top of government outlays for new infrastructure and tax breaks, Beijing most significantly counted on massive credit growth to spur the economy. The amount of new loans made in 2009 nearly doubled from the year before to $1.4 trillion – representing almost 30% of GDP. The stimulus plan worked wonders, holding up growth even as China's exports dropped 16% in 2009.

在衰退期间，这两个国家都出台了相应的刺激计划以支撑经济增长。而印度的优势就在于两国刺激政策的不同。中国实施了沃克所称的“全球历史上最大的经济刺激计划”。除了减税计划和为新建基础设施投入的政府支出外，最令人瞩目的是，北京依靠巨额的信贷增长来刺激经济。2009年中国新增贷款的数额几乎是前一年的两倍，达到了14,000亿美元——几乎占到了GDP的30%。政府的刺激计划诞生了奇迹，即便在出口骤降16%的情况下，中国2009年的经济仍然保持了高速的增长。

But now China is facing the consequences of its largesse. Fears are rising that Beijing's easy-money policies have fueled a potential property-price bubble. According to government data, average real estate prices in Chinese cities jumped 7.8% in December from a year earlier — the fastest increase in 18 months. The credit boom has also sparked worries about the nation's banking system. Many economists expect the large surge in credit to lead to a growing number of nonperforming loans (NPLs). In a November report, UBS economist Wang Tao calculates that if 20% of all new lending in 2009 and 10% of the amount in 2010 goes bad over the next three to five years, the total amount of NPLs from China's stimulus program would reach $400 billion, or roughly 8% of GDP. Though Wang notes that the total is small compared with the level of NPLs that Chinese banks carried in the past, she still calls the sum "staggering." Policymakers in Beijing are clearly concerned. Since December, they have introduced a series of steps to cool down the housing market and restrict access to credit by, for example, reintroducing taxes on certain property transactions and raising the required level of cash that banks have to keep on hand in an effort to reduce new lending.

但是中国现在面临着过度放贷的后果。恐惧正在蔓延，北京银根宽松的政策已经将房产价格的泡沫吹得越来越大。根据政府数据，12月份中国住房均价同比增长7.8%——这是过去18个月以来的最大涨幅。信贷激增同样引发了对国有银行系统的担忧。许多经济学家预期信贷激增会导致不良贷款也大幅增加。在一份11月出炉的报告中，UBS（瑞士联合银行）的经济学家王涛（音）计算得出，如果2009年新增贷款的20%和2010年的10%在未来3至5年内变坏，那么源于中国经济刺激计划的不良贷款总量将达到4,000亿美元，或者大约是GDP的8%。尽管王涛提到，这一数目与国内银行在过去持有的不良贷款水平相比十分渺小，她仍然称不良贷款总量“令人震惊”。北京的决策者显然正为此而忧心忡忡。自12月起，他们已经采用了一系列步骤来为住房市场降温以及限制信贷，包括：在某些房产事务上重新征税和提高存款准备金率以削减新增贷款。

(Read "Foreign Luxury Cars: Picking Up Speed in India.")

（阅读：《国外豪车：在印度加速飞驰》）

India, meanwhile, isn't experiencing nearly the same degree of fallout from its recession-fighting methods. The government used the same tools as every other to support growth when the financial crisis hit – cutting interest rates, offering tax breaks and increasing fiscal spending – but the scale was smaller than in China. Goldman Sachs estimates that India's government stimulus will total $36 billion this fiscal year, or only 3% of GDP. By comparison, China's two-year, $585 billion package is roughly twice as large, at about 6% of GDP per year. Most important, India managed to achieve its substantial growth without putting its banking sector at risk. In fact, India's banks have remained quite conservative through the downturn, especially compared with Chinese lenders. Growth of credit, for example, was actually lower in 2009 than in 2008. As a result, economists see continued strength in India's banks. A January report by economic-research outfit Centennial Asia Advisors noted that based on available data, "there was no sign that domestic banks' nonperforming assets were deteriorating materially." Nor do analysts harbor the same concerns that India's monetary policies are sending prices of Indian real estate to bubble levels. "India's growth, though less stellar, does have the reassuring factor that the [risks of] asset price bubbles are less," says Rajat Nag, managing director general of the Asian Development Bank in Manila.

与此同时，印度却几乎没有经历相同程度的衰退复苏的余波。当金融危机袭来之时，印度政府如所有其他政府一样使用了相同的工具以刺激经济增长——降息、减税以及增加财政支出，但规模却比中国小得多。高盛估算，这一财年印度政府刺激计划总计将花费360亿美元，或者说GDP的3%。相比之下，中国在两年内5,850亿美元的一揽子经济刺激计划大约是印度的两倍之多，约占一年GDP的6%。最重要的是，印度没有将其银行部门推至风险之中，从而获得了可持续的增长。事实上，纵观整个衰退期间，印度的银行都表现得十分保守，尤其与中国的贷款提供者相比更是如此。200年信贷的增长率实际比2008年还要低。所以，经济学家们看到了印度银行界持续发展的力量。经济研究组织百年亚洲咨询公司一月份的报告指出，基于可见数据，“没有迹象表明国内银行的不良资产有实质性的恶化。”分析家也没有像对中国一样担忧印度的货币政策正在将其房产价格推向泡沫水平。“印度的经济增长，尽管处于配角地位，但却有可靠的因素，因为其房地产价格的泡沫（风险）更小。”Rajat Nag说。他是位于马尼拉的亚洲发展银行的管理总干事。

India maintained robust growth without Beijing's hefty stimulus in part because it is less exposed to the international economy. China's exports represented 35% of GDP compared with only 24% for India in 2008. Thus India was afforded more protection from the worst effects of the financial crisis in the West, while China's government needed to be much more active to replace lost exports to the U.S. More significantly, though, India's domestic economy provides greater cushion from external shocks than China's. Private domestic consumption accounts for 57% of GDP in India compared with only 35% in China. India's confident consumer didn't let the economy down. Passenger car sales in India in December jumped 40% from a year earlier. "What we see [in India] is a fundamental domestic demand story that doesn't stall in the time of a global downturn," says Asianomics' Walker.

没有像北京一样巨额的刺激计划，印度却能保持强劲的经济增长，部分是因为其与国际经济的联系不像中国那么紧密。2008年，中国的出口占GDP的35%，而印度只占24%。这样印度就可以更从容地免于西方金融危机所带来的最坏影响，而中国政府就需要拿出更加积极的举措以弥补对美国减少的出口。更重要的是，与中国相比，在应对外来冲击时，印度的国内经济可以起到更好的缓冲作用。个人国内消费总额占到印度GDP的57%，中国却只有35%。印度自信的消费者没有让经济失望。12月，印度客车销售同比暴增40%。“在全球衰退期间，我们（在印度）看到的是一个从未停顿的基本国内需求的故事。”Asianomics的沃克说。

(See pictures of India's "slumdog" entrepreneurs.)

（点击浏览印度“贫民”企业家的图片。）

The Indian economy is not immune to risks. The government has to contend with a yawning budget deficit, and last year's weak monsoon rains will likely undercut agricultural production and soften rural consumer spending. But rapid growth is expected to continue. The World Bank forecasts India's economy will surge 7.6% in 2010 and 8% in 2011, not far behind the 9% rate it predicts for China for each of those years. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, when speaking about his country's more plodding pace of economic policymaking, has said that "slow and steady will win the race." The Great Recession appears to have proved him right.

印度的经济也并不是对风险完全免疫。政府必须与巨大的预算赤字作斗争，而去年季风期少雨可能会使农作物减产，削弱农村的消费需求。但是快速的经济增长仍然有望持续。世界银行预测印度2010年的经济将会有7.6%的增长，2011年将是8%，这与其所预计的中国这几年9%的增长率相比相差并不大。印度总理辛格在谈到印度经济政策制订的艰辛历程时说，“缓慢而稳定会赢得竞争。”大萧条看上去已经证明了他的正确。

（译者注：2010年，中国GDP总量达到5.88亿美元，同比增长10.3%；印度GDP总量为1.73万亿美元，同比增长10.4%。30年来印度的经济增长首次超过中国。）