星海游乐项目有哪些:Emerging markets can be hit if European banks cut back lending

来源:百度文库 编辑:偶看新闻 时间:2024/04/30 06:13:55
Reuters Nov 9, 2011, 08.42am    IST   Tags:Morgan Stanley|Lehman Brothers

LONDON: If European banks are forced to cut back lending to rebuild shot balance sheets, the ensuing credit shock could hit developing countries worldwide as much as those at the centre of the euro zone storm.

With Europe's banks accounting for almost two-thirds of the foreign lending to global emerging markets, the fear is their retrenchment could drain those economies set to provide about 70% of world growth next year.

 This latest so-called "negative feedback loop" from the euro zone sovereign debt crisis is yet another potentially damaging blow to a global economy already experiencing shocks to both business sentiment and planning as well as bank funding strains.

An echo of the global reverberations caused by the Lehman Brothers bust through the winter of 2008-09, this transmission mechanism may have weakened slightly over the past two years due to more regulatory safeguards but still underlines the viral impact of banking shocks in an interconnected global system.

It also illustrates why many emerging economies have as much interest in the resolution of the euro crisis as leaders of the Group of Seven rich nations or even the Europeans themselves.

Regional exposure of European banks to their emerging neighbourhood in central and eastern European is clear.

"The region could be in for a much bigger shock this time around because its economies are so tightly linked to the euro zone," Piroska Nagy, adviser to the chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, told Reuters. A lending crunch could hurt much further afield too.

"The possibility that European banks might reduce their exposure to Asia as part of their recapitalisation effort is something that has to be taken seriously," Deutsche Bank's Michael Spencer told clients, warning of risks to the likes of Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia and India.

In a report last week, Morgan Stanley reckoned that European banks may be forced to shrink their balance sheets by up to 2 trillion by the end of 2012, resulting in a drop in overall lending to emerging markets of over 500 billion.