kt是什么单位:美国应向中国学习，而非害怕其崛起

美国应向中国学习，不应害怕其崛起

By Jonathan Alter

作者：乔纳森·艾尔特

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- I had dinner this week in Beijing with an elegant 85-year-old woman named He Liliang, who had one of the great front-row seats to history.

11月11日（彭博社）——本周我曾在北京与一位优雅的女士进餐。这位女士名叫何理良，已经85岁了，是历史的重要见证者之一。

Her late husband, Huang Hua, translated for the journalist Edgar Snow when he conducted his famous interviews with Mao Zedong in 1936. Her father was Mao’s teacher, and instructed him in the work of Carl von Clausewitz, the German military strategist best known for his maxim that “war is the extension of politics by other means.”

美国记者埃德加·斯诺在1936年对毛泽东进行了一次著名的采访，何女士已故的丈夫黄华当时正是斯诺的陪同翻译。何女士的父亲曾担任毛泽东的老师，为毛泽东讲解德国军事战略家克劳塞维茨的著作。克劳塞维茨有一句名言：“战争是政治扩张的其他手段。”

Today’s surging China doesn’t seem interested in war or politics, only economic growth. Huang’s son works in finance and his daughter-in-law works for a Hollywood studio. His country, undergoing one of the great transformations in human history, should be a source of fascination and study for the U.S. -- not fear.

今天，正在崛起的中国对于战争或政治似乎并不感兴趣，其关注的只是经济发展。黄华的儿子在金融行业工作，儿媳则任职于好莱坞一家电影工作室。这个国家正在经历人类历史上的伟大变革，应该值得美国欣赏和研究——而非恐惧。

Of course, some fear is understandable, especially with occasional signs in the Chinese news media of increasing nationalist chest-thumping. China already spends more on its military than any country except the U.S., and is making no apologies for modernizing it. The buildup “will be based on our own concerns, not aimed at either relieving your concerns or increasing them,” Major General Yunzhan Yao told me and four other visiting American journalists.

当然，某些人的担心是可以理解的，中国新闻媒体上偶尔出现民族自大主义抬头的迹象尤其令人忧虑。中国的军费支出已超过除美国以外的任何国家，中国正在理直气壮地实现军事现代化。中国军事实力的增强“将以我们自身关注的问题为基础，并非旨在减轻或增加贵国的忧虑。”姚云战（音）少将对我以及到访的其他四位美国记者如是说。

I wasn’t buying Yunzhan’s claim that the military is still in its “mechanization” phase and won’t begin its big push for an “informationized military” until 2020 or so. But for now the military technology gap between the U.S. and China remains huge. On Nov. 5, we were allowed to visit a People’s Liberation Army base outside Beijing. The Type 88 tanks we saw, built in the 1980s, looked like antiques.

姚上将声称中国军队仍然处于“机械化”阶段，到2020年左右才会开始大力推动“信息化军队”。我对此抱有怀疑，但美中两国目前在军事技术方面的差距确实仍然很大。11月5日，我们被允许参观位于北京郊外的一个解放军基地。在那里看到了20世纪80年代建造的、像古董一样的88式坦克。

No Cold War

不要冷战

Our reception on the base was friendly, as it was when Admiral Mike Mullen, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reviewed Chinese military maneuvers at a different installation earlier this year. We toured the barracks and joked with a colonel about whether the NBA had made Yao Ming too soft for military service. The mood was much cheerier than when I’d interviewed Red Army generals in Moscow in the 1980s. If a new Cold War’s coming, we saw no sign of it.

今年早些时候，时任美国参谋长联席会议主席迈克·马伦上将访华并观摩了中方的军事演习，受到热烈欢迎。跟马伦上将一样，我们在军事基地也受到友好接待。我们参观了兵营，并和一名上校开玩笑说，NBA是否让姚明变得软弱了，不适合参军。当时的气氛比20世纪80年代我在莫斯科采访一位红军将领时要轻松得多。我们并没有看到新冷战到来的踪影。

Zhou Wenzhong, a former Chinese ambassador to the U.S., said that our military officers are exaggerating the threat from China. “Deep down they know what’s going on but need an argument in Congress” for big defense budgets, he told us.

前中国驻美国大使周文重对我们说，美国军方高层夸大了来自中国的威胁，“他们内心深处了解真相，但需要在国会摆出论据”才能争取大笔国防预算。

That sounds about right. The U.S. defense budget of nearly $700 billion is roughly six times as large as China’s and more than twice the percentage of gross domestic product. Proposed Pentagon cuts would do little to lessen that edge.

这听起来很有道理。美国的国防预算接近7000亿美元，是中国的六倍左右，占自身国内生产总值的百分之二以上。五角大楼削减军费开支的建议对于美国的军事优势影响甚微。

Dangerous Neighborhood

危险邻居

And it’s not as if China is overly preoccupied with the U.S. It has territorial disputes with 10 of the 12 countries that border it. “We have four nuclear neighbors,” says Wu Xinbo of Fudon University, referring to India, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia. “If you lived in China, you couldn’t sleep.”

中国需要提防的绝不只是美国。中国与12个国家接壤，与其中10个国家存在领土争端。正如复旦大学的武心波博士所言，中国有四个核邻居。他所指的是印度、朝鲜、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯。 “如果你身处中国，你肯定夜不能寐。”

Maybe not, but that still doesn’t explain the Sichuan-sized chip on its shoulder, the result of its power growing faster than its ability to manage it.

这也许言过其实，但仍然无法解释为何在中国的肩部会出现一个相当于四川省大小的缺口。这个缺口正是其军事实力发展速度超过其控制能力所造成的结果。（译者注：这段不太好理解，特别是Sichuan-sized chip on its shoulder一词，希望高手能指点一下）

Fortunately, national pride has consistently taken a backseat to economic growth. Deng Xiaoping, the founder of today’s China, reduced the military’s share of the budget in the 1970s to concentrate on the latter. Major military modernization didn’t begin until the 1990s, as the U.S. expanded its defense ties with Taiwan.

幸运的是，民族自豪感并未偏离以经济发展为中心的轨道。中国改革开放的总设计师邓小平在20世纪70年代削减军事预算开支，把工作重心放在经济发展上。直到20世纪90年代，随着美国扩大与台湾的防务关系，中国才开始大规模地进行军事现代化。

The major hotspot nowadays is the South China Sea. After incidents of what some called brutish Chinese behavior toward foreign fishing vessels, the Obama administration, determined to show that the U.S. is still a major Pacific power, has been conducting naval maneuvers with countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

当今的主要热点地区是南海。在发生所谓中国方面粗暴对待外国渔船的事件后，奥巴马政府决定宣示美国在太平洋地区的势力，与越南和菲律宾等国开展了多次海军演习。

“China is very upset because it feels the U.S. is taking sides,” says Wu. “If the U.S. is concerned about nationalism, what it’s doing in the South China Sea will only fuel it.”

武心波博士表示：“中国对美国偏袒他国的做法深感不满。” 如果美国担心中国的民族主义问题，那它在南海所做的一切只会火上加油。”

A New Attitude

新的姿态

Although tensions in the sea have eased recently, they can worsen at any time -- as they might over Taiwan, Tibet, political dissidents, intellectual property, exchange rates or any of the other familiar flash points of U.S.-China relations.

虽然海上的紧张局势最近有所缓解，但情况随时会恶化——美中关系存在着许多类似的摩擦点，包括台湾问题、西藏问题、异见人士、知识产权、汇率等等，相关冲突也会一触即发。

Those are predictable sources of irritation that will grow and recede. What we don’t know yet is how the new crop of Chinese leaders that takes office next year will handle their dramatically enhanced status on the world stage.

可以预见，这些问题将造成对抗，只是有时激烈一些，有时缓和一些。明年上台的新一代领导人将如何处理中国在世界舞台上日益重要的地位，目前还不得而知。

I talked to a senior Chinese policy analyst about the new attitude. He had always heard that money talks, he said, but now it seems that all of China’s money still doesn’t let it get a word in edgewise at the International Monetary Fund and other global forums. He compared the U.S. to the Qing Dynasty, which he said had the highest GDP in the world but collapsed a century ago because it grew complacent and failed to reform. His critique of the U.S.’s failure to get its act together on issues like education and budget deficits was accurate, but startling in its intensity. We learn from you, he said, but you think you have no need to learn anything from us.

我曾与一位资深的中国政策分析家讨论关于新姿态的问题。他指出，人们一直说金钱万能，但现在看来，中国的经济实力还不足以在国际货币基金组织和其他国际组织中占有举足轻重的地位。他将美国与中国的清朝进行比较。他说，清朝的GDP一度位居世界首位，但由于骄傲自满，裹足不前，终于在一个世纪前分崩离析。这位分析家批评美国在教育和预算赤字等问题上缺乏一致行动，这种批评是准确的，但其剧烈程度令人吃惊。他说，我们向你们学习，但你们觉得我们一无是处。

Lawyers, Not Soldiers

律师而非士兵

And yet like the other sophisticated analysts we met, he showed no sign of thinking the military can solve political problems. He argued that China has benefited so much from international institutions that it has zero interest in disrupting them or jeopardizing all its accomplishments by threatening world peace. Problems should be solved by lawyers, he says, not soldiers.

但正如我们之前遇到的其他成熟的分析家一样，这位分析家并不认为武力可以解决政治问题。他认为，中国从国际制度当中获益良多，威胁世界和平只会干扰国际制度运作甚至损害中国自身发展，这对中国而言绝无好处。他说，问题应该通过律师而非士兵解决。

Happily for the world, the “other means” for extending politics has so far meant economic competition and integration, not Clausewitz’s war. Being vigilant doesn’t mean that we always have to assume warlike intentions on the part of other major powers. When China’s top general, Chen Bingde, visited the National Defense University in Washington in May, he quoted Franklin D. Roosevelt: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

值得世人庆幸的是，政治扩张的“其他手段”迄今为止仅限于经济竞争和整合，而非克劳塞维茨所称的战争。我们需要保持警惕，但并不意味着我们必须始终假定其他大国都是好战之徒。中国高级将领陈炳德5月访问华盛顿国防大学时引用了富兰克林·罗斯福的名言：“我们唯一需要恐惧的就是恐惧本身。”

That’s good advice for both countries.

这值得美中两国引以为鉴。

(Jonathan Alter is a Bloomberg View columnist and the author of “The Promise: President Obama, Year One.” The opinions expressed are his own.)

（乔纳森·艾尔特是彭博社“观点”专栏作家，著有《一份承诺：奥巴马总统执政首年》一书。本文仅代表作者观点。）