低温快速微冻机:中国正在悄悄打开流动性闸门

2011年 11月 09日 07:23 中国正在悄悄打开流动性闸门
评论(5) 中国的流动性闸门是否在被悄悄地重新打开？

10月底，国务院总理温家宝释放信号，暗示中国的政策立场将重新定位，并承诺进行政策微调以支持经济增长。到目前为止，政府主要举措体现在财政政策上，即减免税费支持小微企业的发展。货币政策出现具体转变的证据并不充分。但在表象之下，有迹象表明政策的车轮已经开始转向。以下三点值得关注：

相关报道中国信贷现宽松 或助推市场反转
报道：中国部分银行放松信贷投放
报道：吴晓灵反对放松银根
中国可能对宏观经济政策进行更多调整
首先，中国央行每周定期卖出和赎回国债的公开市场操作已经被用于向经济体系注入流动性。温家宝讲话之后的那一周，中国央行向金融体系释放了960亿元（约合150亿美元）的资金，彻底改变了此前三周从市场抽离资金的做法。

其次，中国央行可能会给商业银行一个喘息的空间，这样银行可以暂时不用存入资金以满足新的存款准备金要求。今年8月，中国央行要求商业银行增加存款准备金，规模据估计达8, 900亿元，银行有六个月的时间分批完成目标。如果商业银行得以暂时不用存入准备金，那么它们能有更多的资金用于放贷。今年8月央行增加存款准备金时没有发布正式通知。如果现在央行允许降低准备金数额，那么其很有可能也不会发布公告。

最后，每年12月都有大笔财政性存款离开央行涌入商业银行。过去三年中，这笔资金的数额均超过1万亿元。在正常年份，央行会收紧信贷缰绳，防止商业银行将多出的存款变成贷款。如果今年央行采取较为宽松的做法，那么商业银行的可放贷资金将会增加。

把上面三项加起来，今年最后几个月贷款量出现反常激增看来是可能的。中国的商业银行通常在每年的第四季度都有一个小小的喘息空间。由于贷款额度几乎用尽，平均来看，2009年和2010年第四季度新增贷款数量只占当年贷款总量的15%。今年，情况可能刚好相反。如果要达到非官方公布的今年7.5万亿元的贷款目标，那么第四季度每个月新增贷款数量要超过6, 000亿元，这高于三季度月均5, 030亿元的新增贷款量。

今年最后几个月通货膨胀率掉头向下也将促进信贷的进一步放松。中国国际金融有限公司（China International Capital Corp.）的研究员说，存款准备金率有选择的降低可能成为向经济体系注入更多流动性的手段。降低小银行的存款准备金率将释放部分可用于放贷的资金，且此举不会释放信贷全面放松的信号。

所有这些和2009年的刺激计划相比，都不可同日而语。由于预计通货膨胀率在2012年将保持在4%左右，且银行在过去两年多内已经放出了大笔贷款，现在的情况不会是2009年的重演。但目前这些现象确实表明，政府正在悄悄地改变政策，以促进经济增长。

China Easing Into Pro-Growth Mode

Are China's liquidity taps being turned quietly back on?

At the end of October Premier Wen Jiabao signaled a re-orientation of China's policy stance, promising fine tuning to support growth. So far, the main moves have been in fiscal policy, with tax breaks to support small business. The evidence of a concrete shift in monetary policy has been thin on the ground. But under the surface, there are signs that policy wheels are starting to turn. Here are three points to watch.

First, the People's Bank of China's open-market operations-regular weekly sales and redemptions of bonds-have been used to pump cash into the system. The week following Mr. Wen's speech the central bank released 96 billion yuan ($15 billion) into the financial system, a turnaround after three weeks of draining funds.

Next up, the People's Bank may give the banks a break on coughing up cash to meet new reserve requirements. Back in August, the central bank required the banks to add an estimated 890 billion yuan to their reserves, with payments in installments over six months. If they receive a temporary reprieve, that gives them more funds to make loans. August's move to raise reserves happened with no official notice. If the requirement is now allowed to slide, that will likely happen without public announcement also.

Finally, in December of every year a huge chunk of fiscal deposits--more than a trillion yuan in each of the last three years--leave the central bank and flood into the commercial banks. In a normal year, the central bank would tighten the reins to prevent the banks from turning extra deposits into extra loans. If they take a more easygoing approach this year, the commercial banks will have more money to lend.

Add it all up and an unseasonal surge in lending in the final months of the year looks likely. China's banks normally take a breather in the final quarter. With their loan quota almost exhausted, in 2009 and 2010 fourth-quarter new loans averaged just 15% of the total for the year. This year, the reverse might be true. Hitting the unofficial 7.5 trillion yuan loan target for the year would mean more than 600 billion yuan in new loans in each month of the fourth quarter, up from an average of 503 billion yuan in the third.

A downward shift in inflation in the final months of the year will be a catalyst to do more. Researchers at China International Capital Corp. say a selective cut in the reserve requirement ratio could be a way to release more cash into the system. A cut targeted at small banks would free up funds for lending without signaling a wholesale move toward loosening.

None of this is on the same scale as 2009's stimulus. With inflation expected to stay sticky around 4% into 2012, and the banks maxed out on lending, it shouldn't be. But it does show the government quietly shifting policy into pro-growth mode.

Tom Orlik