The Pearl River delta, the area of Guangdong province adjoining Hong Kong that has over the past 20 years become the world’s manufacturing workshop, is in the middle of wrenching change.
在过去的20年里，毗邻香港的广东珠三角地区逐渐成为了“世界工厂”。而如今，这一地区正处于艰难的转型之中。
Guangdong is trying to wean itself from low-cost manufacturing of textiles and electronics such as iPhones into a zone of high-end manufacturing and services. It is the biggest transformation of the region since Deng Xiaoping’s “southern tour” in 1992 boosted the growth of China’s special economic zones.
广东省正试图摆脱对低成本纺织业和电子产品制造业（如iPhone的制造）的依赖，转而发展高端制造业和服务业。自1992年邓小平“南巡”推动了中国经济特区的增长以来，这是该地区经历的最剧烈的转型。
The spark was the string of suicides in 2010 at the factory-town operated by Foxconn, the Taiwan electronics manufacturer, in the Longhua district of Shenzhen, employing 300,000 people – most of them young migrants from China’s interior. The ensuing criticism of working conditions led to double-digit wage rises across the region.
转型的导火索是2010年发生在深圳龙华区富士康(Foxconn)厂区的一系列自杀事件。富士康是一家台湾电子产品制造商，员工人数达30万，大多数是来自中国内地的年轻打工者。事件发生后，人们对于打工者工作条件的种种批评，给整个珠三角地区打工者的收入带来了两位数的涨幅。
But the “Foxconn effect” was not just a private sector response to discontent and despair among workers. The wage rises, which have caused a wave of closures among low-margin factories, were tacitly approved by Beijing as part of its intention to restructure the export-led economy.
然而，“富士康效应”不仅仅是私人部门对打工者中普遍存在的不满与绝望情绪的回应。工资上涨得到了中国政府的默许，一定程度上是为了实现出口导向型经济的转型。工资上涨引发了低利润率工厂的一波倒闭潮。
Not only does official policy favour wage rises in an effort to boost domestic consumption, but the government would like industry to transfer from the coastal zones to provinces such as Sichuan and Hunan to spread the benefits of industrialisation to the interior.
官方政策倾向于增加工资，不仅是为了促进国内消费，也是因为政府希望工业从沿海地区向四川、河南等内地省份转移，以便让工业化成果向内地扩散。
That has unleashed creative destruction in Guandong’s sprawling industrial cities – Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Dongguan. Some companies are investing in new facilities for higher-margin products, others are diversifying into other provinces and lower-wage countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. Others are simply closing down.
这种情况在广东省几个庞杂的工业城市（深圳、广州、东莞）造成了创造性的破坏。有些企业正在投资于新的生产设施、制造利润率更高的产品，有些则在向中国其他省份或其他低工资国家（如孟加拉、越南）转移。其余的干脆关门大吉。
“As costs go up, a lot of traditional manufacturing is being squeezed out,” says David Chu, the clothes designer and founder of the Nautica brand whose family makes clothes for western brands, including Burberry, in Dongguan. “Unless you produce highly value-added goods, it is impossible.”
“随着成本上涨，许多传统制造业正被迫出局，”服装设计师、诺蒂卡(Nautica)品牌创始人朱钦骐(David Chu)表示，“除非你生产的是附加值很高的产品，而这不可能。” 在东莞，朱钦骐的家族为包括巴宝莉(Burberry)在内的许多西方服装品牌制作成衣。
“Foxconn produced a sea change in how workers are treated and the whole distribution of income. Post the Foxconn effect, we are seeing a dramatic rise in labour costs,” says Victor Fung, chairman of the Li & Fung, group of companies and of the Greater Pearl River Delta Business Council.
利丰集团(Li & Fung)及大珠三角商务委员会(Greater Pearl River Delta Business Council)主席冯国经(Victor Fung)表示：“富士康事件彻底改变了打工者的待遇以及整个收入分配的格局。在后富士康效应时代，我们正看到劳动力成本激增。”
Spencer Leung, an analyst at UBS, says that in the first few months after the Foxconn affair, local manufacturers expected wage rates to rise by 10 to 12 per cent a year, but in practice they rose by 18 to 20 per cent. As operating margins were already very thin, this has put them under intense cost pressure.
瑞银(UBS)分析师梁裕昌(Spencer Leung)表示，富士康事件发生后的头几个月，当地工厂主预计，工资年度涨幅将达到10%至12%，但实际上涨幅高达18%至20%。在营业利润率已经很低的情况下，这让工厂主们面临巨大的成本压力。
“We have seen a lot of factories going out of business. Usually factory owners would wait until the New Year [the January holiday when many migrant workers return to their provinces] to walk away and not come back,” he says. “This year, they are not even waiting, which tells you how difficult it is.”
“我们目睹了许多工厂倒闭。工厂主通常会等到过年的时候（中国农历新年，许多打工者会在这时返乡）离开，不再回来。”梁裕昌表示，“但今年，他们甚至等不到过年。可想而知他们的境况多么艰难。”
Many companies are trying to shift inland – Foxconn has opened a large plant in Chengdu in Sichuan province. Mark McCombe, who resigned last week as head of HSBC’s bank in Hong Kong to lead Black Rock, the asset management group, in Asia, argues that restructuring is already well advanced. “It is not a world in crisis. This has been an evolutionary process over years. Some industries, such as textiles, have already diversified.”
许多企业正试图迁往内地——富士康已在四川省成都市开设了一家大型工厂。上月辞去汇丰(HSBC)香港业务行政总裁一职、出任资产管理集团贝莱德(Black Rock)亚太区主席的马凯博(Mark McCombe)辩称，产业重组早已开始。“这并不是什么危机。而是已持续多年的一种演变趋势。某些产业（比如纺织业）早已开始转变。”
But Guangdong has a sophisticated network of suppliers and logistics as well as a vast and mobile labour force, while inland provinces are developing. “Dongguan is like New York or London. It attracts talent from across the entire country,” says Mr Leung. “Inland, you can buy a piece of land at a very attractive price, but the talent is not there.”
不过，广东拥有一个成熟的供应商和物流网络，同时拥有规模庞大、流动性强的劳动力大军，而那些内陆省份还在发展之中。“东莞就像是纽约或者伦敦。它吸引着整个国家的人才。”梁裕昌表示，“在内地，你可以用很便宜的价格买到土地，但那里没有人才。”
A further obstacle is the cost and complexity of exporting finished products – the delta provides quicker access to ports than cities such as Chongqing. China’s road network suffers from frictions such as the requirement to unload and reload trucks when crossing provincial borders.
另一个障碍，则是制成品出口的成本和复杂度——相比于重庆这样的内陆城市，珠三角地区拥有靠近港口的优势。中国的道路网络面临着一些阻力，比如有这样的规定：在跨越省境的要卸车、再重新装车。
Mr Fung senses opportunity for the Hong Kong “intermediaries” of which Li & Fung is the largest. “I think we have a new lease of life. People thought: ‘These guys will stick to what they’ve done for the past 30 years and be bypassed’ but this new paradigm requires know-how.”
冯国经嗅到了一个机会：香港公司可以充当“中间人”，而利丰集团就是其中最大的一家。“我认为，我们获得了新生。人们这样以为：‘这些家伙会坚守他们过去30年的做法，并被人甩在身后’，但这种新的模式要求有一些诀窍。”
This means organising the supply chain and logistics for inland production and helping multinationals to start selling to the Chinese consumer. Hong Kong companies also see a demand for their expertise from domestic companies turning into exporters. “We are entering a new era for the Pearl River,” says Mr Fung. Until now, the world has concentrated on sourcing from the east and selling to the west. Everyone traded on that because 85 per cent of world’s consumption was in the OECD. But it is becoming a global web.”
这意味着要帮助内地生产企业组织供应链和物流体系，并帮助跨国公司打开中国市场。香港公司还发现，它们从国内公司转变为出口商的经验也很有市场。冯国经表示：“珠三角地区正进入一个新的时代。”到目前为止，人们一直关注的是从东方采购商品、销往西方国家。所有人都以这种模式交易，因为经合组织(OECD)成员国占到了全世界消费额的85%。但如今，全球化网络正在形成。”
Mr McCombe also argues the evolution will benefit the region and Hong Kong rather than simply drawing jobs inland. “Clients who spent 20 years thinking about the quickest route out are now thinking about the supply chain inside China and, as Chinese companies become more confident, they are coming here to find export markets.”
马凯博同时辩称，这种转变也将惠及珠三角地区和香港，而不仅是为内地带来就业机会。“过去20年间思考如何找到最快捷出口路径的那些客户，如今正在思考中国本土的供应链。同时，随着中国企业信心增强，它们正来到这里，以开拓出口市场。”
The question is whether change in the delta can bring high-value industries and jobs fast enough to replace old ones. The mood in Hong Kong is optimistic, helped by the visible impact of China’s growth, but the proof is still to come.
问题在于，这种改变是否能够迅速为珠三角地区带来高附加值的产业和就业岗位、以取代原有产业。在香港，人们的看法较为乐观，这在一定程度上得益于中国经济增长的明显影响，但事实如何，还需要等待时间的检验。
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