泰国佛牌开卡机构:雷电灾害风险评估的参数研究与模型设计_大气物理学与大气环境_论文免费下载

论文标题:雷电灾害风险评估的参数研究与模型设计
The Parameter Research and Model Design of Risk Assessment for Lightning Hazard
论文作者 钟万强
论文导师 肖稳安,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 大气物理学与大气环境
论文单位 南京气象学院,点击次数 10,论文页数 65页File Size2962k
2004-05-01论文免费下载 http://paper.dic123.com/lunwen_647764127/ 雷电灾害;风险;风险评估;参数;模型
Lightning Hazard, Risk, Risk Assessment, Parameter, Model
通过对风险、风险评估、自然灾害与雷电灾害等理论和方法的研究，分析常用的雷电灾害风险评估标准、评估参数和评估模型存在的主要问题，利用前瞻性风险管理理论和模糊数学理论，实现论文的以下三个目的：即在风险和风险评估等方面提出一些观点与创新；对常用的雷电灾害风险评估方法进行定量化改进；创建一套合理实用的雷电灾害风险评估参数并设计一个雷电灾害风险评估模型。 遵循借鉴改造和发展创新的研究思路，给出了风险的定义和风险识别的方法，将风险态度分为风险喜好型、风险中庸型和风险逃避型，指出了提高雷电灾害风险意识的重要性，总结了雷电灾害的作用机制和雷电灾害风险评估的理论与方法；提供了包括雷击次数N、雷灾概率P、雷灾损失D、雷灾风险R和雷电防护级别与防护效率E等5类基本参数的雷电灾害风险评估参数体系，并给出了各个参数的定义、参数的决定因素和取值方法以及取值范围；设计了包括雷电灾害基础模块、雷电灾害概率评估模块、雷电灾害损失评估模块、雷电灾害允许风险评估模块、雷电防护成本评估模块、校正系数模块、雷电灾害风险评估模块、雷电防护级别与效率分析模块等8个模块的雷电灾害风险评估模型，评估模型以IEC61662的评估模型为基本参考，以雷灾损失D为中心，把雷灾风险划分为经济雷灾风险R_E和人身雷灾风险R_L，并对R_E和R_L分开单独处理。最后，将雷电灾害风险评估模型进行了应用，指出了存在的问题与发展的方向，并给出了结论。
Through researching risk, risk assessment, and the theories and methods of nature disaster and lightning hazard, analyze the main problems of the risk assessment standards, risk assessment parameters, and risk assessment models for lightning hazard in use. With the theories of prospective risk management and fuzzy mathematics, realize the thesis"s three main purposes: Put forward some personal viewpoints and creations in risk and risk assessment; Mend quantitatively the methods of risk assessment for lightning hazard in use; Establish a set of reasonable and practical risk assessment parameters and a risk assessment model for lightning hazard.Following the research route of mend with study and development with creation, give the definition of risk and the methods of risk identifying, divide the risk attitude into risk loving, risk neutralism and risk avoiding, point out the importance of enhancing the risk consciousness for lightning hazard, and summarize the mechanisms of lightning hazard the theories and methods of risk assessment for lightning hazard. Provide a set of risk assessment parameters for lightning hazard, which includes lightning times N, hazard probability P, hazard loss D, hazard risk R and protection efficiency E, and give the definition, decisive factor, value method and value scope of each parameter. Establish a risk assessment model for lightning hazard which includes lightning hazard base module, lightning hazard probability module, lightning hazard loss module, lightning hazard accepted risk module, lightning protection cost module, correcting coefficient module, lightning hazard risk module, and lightning protection class and efficiency module. With the basic reference of the assessment model in IEC61662, focusing on the lightning hazard loss D, divide the lightning hazard risk into economic risk RE and human life risk RL and treat them respectively. Finally, put the risk assessment model for lightning hazard into application, point out its existing problems and development directions, and make some conclusions.