海贼之流刃若火网盘:茅台缘何身价大涨？

2012年 01月 31日 09:28
茅台缘何身价大涨？
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Bloomberg News
在位于贵州仁怀的中国贵州茅台酒厂内，工人们正在车间生产线上包装茅台酒。
在
中国迄今为止首次茅台酒专场拍卖会两周前，举办方拍卖行的董事长刘晓伟将一瓶1982年产陈酿茅台酒的价格定在人民币一万元至两万元之间。为什么是1982年？因为1982年产拉菲葡萄酒在中国是最受欢迎的法国葡萄酒中最炙手可热的陈年佳酿，是衡量中国本土高档酒的唯一合适基准。
刘晓伟估计一瓶1982年产拉菲的价格约为人民币6万元（合9,500美元）──中国的烟酒税往往使葡萄酒价格比其他市场更高；而且他显然认为茅台酒能够逐渐弥补这一价格上的差距。
结果却是，拍卖会上1982年陈酿茅台酒很少。也许更确切的说是，酒可能有很多，但很多瓶子的标签上印的蓝色生产日期已经褪色，难以确切表明一瓶酒究竟是哪年生产的。相反，在尽可能让生产年份更加具体的情况下，成批的酒通常是作为80年代（抑或是80年代初）产的陈酿拍卖。这并未令竞拍者却步。在去年12月3日举行的拍卖会上，一瓶80年代产茅台酒的成交价很少低于人民币三万元。
近年来并非只有陈酿茅台酒身价大涨。据刘晓伟说，即使是新酿茅台酒销售价格也在每瓶人民币2,000元以上，而六年前一瓶茅台酒只要约人民币200元。刘晓伟是北京歌德拍卖有限公司(Beijing Googut Auction Co.)董事长。
他笑着说，我本人很喜欢喝茅台，但现在茅台太贵了，供不应求，现在中国经济形势很好，有钱人太多了。
茅台酒增值有着各种各样的原因。
茅台曾是毛泽东最喜欢喝的酒，其他品牌都没有这样的殊荣。原因之一是茅台酒只能用贵州的山泉酿制，那里世世代代都在酿制茅台。但这也限制了茅台酒公司扩大生产的能力。
与此同时，中国人生活的日益富裕提振了需求，自用和送礼用茅台需求均大幅增长。中国网民常常抱怨说，腐败从一定程度上推高了茅台价格，正式晚宴上常常消费成箱的茅台酒。本月早些时候，这一说法得到了一些高层的支持。
这就使贵州茅台酒股份有限公司(Kweichow Moutai Co.)成为中国股市上的明星。去年，中国股市是全球表现最差的股市之一。尽管2010年上证综合指数跌了逾20%，截至年底贵州茅台股价却涨了4%，而这仍较当年早些时候的高点跌了很多。
现在继茶叶藏品和稀有中药之后，茅台本身也日益成为一种投资品，不禁让人怀疑中国是不是面临着一场白酒泡沫。
刘晓伟说，目前拍卖会上的买家主要还是个人，但过去几年有投资白酒的基金兴起。
上述茅台酒拍卖会是歌德公司组织的几场烈酒拍卖活动之一。这些拍卖活动并没有全部收到同样好的效果。拍卖会是在一个镶有人造橡木板的酒店舞厅举行的。谁是私人买家、谁是机构买家很难分辨，但从待售300件茅台当中一部分拍品的竞标情况来看，竞标者手中拥有的一些资源可谓货真价实。身着礼服的拍卖师开拍之后不久，一件共计100瓶、产自1983年到1986年的茅台就拍出了人民币336万元。过后，另外100瓶产自同样年代的茅台拍出300万元整。到最后，拍卖会只属于真正有心买的人。晚上7点30分开拍，一直忙到了次日凌晨。
作为投资品，陈年茅台酒还有另外一些有利因素。人们收集、贮藏葡萄酒让其陈化已经有了很久的历史，但陈年茅台酒市场还是一个比较时新的事物。80年代产的茅台酒，常常是随着人们意识到橱柜里、酒架上或床底下的陈年老酒可能值几个钱，一瓶两瓶地出现在市场上的。另外和葡萄酒不一样的是，贮藏条件一般不会影响茅台的口味。
一对老年夫妇在场外观看歌德的那场拍卖会，急切地希望看到他们的藏品能卖出多少钱。他们自己并不喝酒，只想因为要搬家，不知道该怎么处理一辈子作为礼品积累下来的茅台和其他白酒。经歌德公司一番劝说，他们相信再把这些酒当礼品送出去并不是最划算的选择。
和葡萄酒不一样的是，茅台酒并无年份之别。这一年产的和那一年产的并无多大区别，因为天气对酿酒所用高粱的影响不同于对葡萄的影响。但内行人士会告诉你，年代越久远，酒越香醇。另外，虽然把不同年份产的葡萄酒混在一起十分讨厌，但如果要让你藏了30年的茅台酒放得更久一点，普遍采用的办法就是拿出少量的酒同年代更近的茅台相混。
但茅台酒的流行也催生了新酒、陈酒的假货市场。歌德拍卖公司负责中国名酒部的高级经理刘剑锋说，识别假货的办法是摇晃酒瓶，让光照进半透明的瓶身。如果有很多泡沫，很可能就是真货，如果一点泡沫也没有，那就是假货。
但愿识别投机泡沫也能如此简单。
Vintage Alco Pop? Maotai's Price Spiral
Two weeks before China's first ever auction dedicated entirely to aged Maotai, China's most famous baijiu or white spirit, Liu Xiaowei, chairman of the auction house hosting the event, put the price of a 1982 vintage bottle of Maotai at between 10,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan. Why 1982? Because 1982 Lafite, the most sought after vintage of the most sought after French wine in China, was the only appropriate benchmark against which to measure China's own luxury tipple.
Mr. Liu put the price of a bottle of 1982 Lafite at about 60,000 yuan or 9,500美元 (taxes tend to make wine more expensive in China than in other markets) - and he clearly expected Maotai to close the gap over time.
As it turns out, the auction had very little of Maotai's 1982 vintage. Or, more accurately, it may have had a lot, but the blue ink production date stamped on each label had faded on so many bottles it was difficult to tell exactly what year a bottle may have been produced. Instead, batches were typically auctioned as being from 'the eighties', or perhaps from the 'early eighties' whenever it was possible to be more specific. That didn't deter bidders. At the December 3 auction, a bottle of Maotai produced in the 1980s seldom sold for less than 30,000 yuan.
It's not just aged Maotai that has shot up in value in recent years. Even the shelf price of new bottles costs more than 2000 yuan a bottle, up from about 200 yuan six years ago according to Mr. Liu, who heads Beijing Googut Auction Co.
'I personally really enjoy drinking Maotai, but these days it's too expensive,' he said with a laugh. 'They just can't produce enough. These days China's economy is pretty good, and too many people have money.'
The reasons for the ascent of Maotai sometimes spelled 'Moutai' ─ are many and varied.
It was Mao Zedong's favorite drink and no other brand has the same cache. Part of the mystique is that it can only be produced from the mountain waters of Guizhou where it's been made for generations. But that limits the company's ability to expand production.
Meanwhile, China's rising affluence has pushed up demand, both for consumption and for gifts. China's netizen's often complain that corruption is in part driving Maotai's high price with official dinners often fueled by cases of the drink a claim that received some high-level backing earlier this month.
That has made Kweichow Moutai Co. a star in a stock market that was one of the worst performers in the world last year. While the index that tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange dropped more than 20% in 2010, Kweichow Moutai ended the year up 4% and that was even well down from its high point earlier in the year.
Now, following in the footsteps of collectible teas and rare traditional medicines, the drink itself is increasingly becoming an investment item, leading some to wonder whether China faces a baijiu bubble.
'At the moment the main buyers are still individuals,' said Googut's Mr. Liu of auction-goers. 'But over the last few years there's been an emergence of funds that invest in baijiu.'
The Maotai auction was one of a handful liquor auctions organized by Googut, not all of which were as well received. Hosted in a the hotel ballroom, tricked out in faux-oak paneling, it was difficult to distinguish private and institutional buyers, but the bids on some of the 300 batches of Maotai on offer suggested the bidders had some serious resources at their disposal. Soon after the tuxedo clad auctioneer started proceedings, a batch of 100 bottles produced between 1983 and 1986 went for 3.36 million yuan. Later, another 100 from the same era went for a flat 3 million yuan. In the end the auction was only for the truly committed. After kicking off at 7.30pm, it went on until the early hours of the next morning.
As an investment, aged Maotai has something else going in its favor. Unlike wine, which has long been collected and stored to allow it to age and mature, the market for aged Maotai is fairly new. Bottles from the eighties typically emerge on the market in ones and twos as people realize that the old bottle in their pantry, on their liquor shelf, or hidden under the bed, might actually have some value. And unlike wine, storage conditions don't tend to affect its flavor.
One elderly couple watched the Googut auction from the sidelines, eager to see what their stash might fetch. Not being drinkers themselves, they were about to move house and were trying to work out what to do with a life time's worth of Maotai and other baijiu accumulated as presents. The auction convinced them that re-gifting probably wasn't the most lucrative of options open to them.
Unlike wine, Maotai doesn't have vintages. One year is much like any other: The sorghum from which it's made isn't affected by the weather in the same way grapes are. But connoisseurs will tell you that it matures with age. And while it's anathema to mix different wine vintages, one popular way to make your 30-year-old Maotai last that little bit longer is by mixing a little with Maotai produced more recently.
But Maotai's popularity has also resulted in a huge market for fakes, both new and aged. Liu Jianfeng, Googut's senior manager in charge of their famous Chinese liquors department, says the way to spot a fake is by shaking up the bottle and shining a light through its translucent walls. If there are a lot of bubbles that's a good sign, but no bubbles at all means it's a fake.
If only the big bubbles were as easy to spot at the little ones.
Dinny McMahon