你擒我愿汤圆儿小说:中国应放弃不结盟政策

中国应放弃不结盟政策

吴旭　（博士，香港城市大学客座教授，美国亚利桑那州立大学副教授）

从50年代中后期开始，中国一直将“不结盟”作为自己国际交往的一个大的方针和原则。近几年，在每次发表的政府白皮书中，更将“不结盟”作为一个明确的宗旨，重点宣示强调。比如，在2011年9月国务院新闻办发表的《中国的和平发展》白皮书中，就有这样的段落，中国“坚持在和平共处五项原则基础上，同所有国家发展友好合作，不同任何国家和国家集团结盟，不以社会制度和意识形态异同决定国家关系的亲疏。”

这一政策指针，在过去的几十年里，确实给中国争取到了一定的外交空间和灵活自由；但是，随着中国国力和影响力的稳步提升，随着中国国家利益的延展和国际化，“不结盟”的原则越来越成为中国战略安全的一个负面包袱。针对目前的国际局势，中国继续恪守“不结盟”的方针，无异于作茧自缚，固步自封。

首先需要明确，结盟，并不意味着要和非盟友搞对抗，而是要以盟约这种国家间交往的最高形式，划定双方的职责义务，真正建立起国家间的高度互信，从而搭建唇齿相依、荣辱与共的安全架构。当然，在遇到盟友利益受到侵犯的时候，根据条约原则，其他盟友要鼎立相助，共同进退。俗话说，“一个篱笆三个桩，一个好汉三个帮”，“打仗亲兄弟，上阵父子兵”；在危难时，盟友就是“帮手”，就是“亲兄弟”。这方面，做得最成功的当属美国了——可以说，它已经把中国“合纵连横”，“远交近攻”，“最广泛统一战线”等结盟原则做到了极致。虽然是世界超强，有着排名第一的经济体，有着无人能望其项背的军事、科技实力，美国同时也是世界上盟友最多的国家，正式签约的带有军事盟友关系的国家多达36个，遍布世界各大洲的战略要地和美国自己划定的全球各大战区。每次用兵之前，美国往往先鼓动各路盟友，有钱出钱，有枪出枪，有人出人，没钱没人的出声也行。从一战、二战，再到冷战，和现在正在进行的反恐战争，莫不如是。在盟友的站角助威声中，硬实力、软实力、巧实力，三管齐下，往往能以最小的投入达到战略利益的最大化。

与之相比，中国现在奉行的“不结盟”政策，则显得过时和死板，而其弊端也是显而易见的。

首先，在很多涉及中国核心利益的议题时，中国在世界的舞台上往往显得形单影只，孤掌难鸣。既没有什么可以依靠的核心盟友来站角助威，也没有什么可以指使的左膀右臂去冲锋陷阵。虽然靠着经济利益的诱惑，也笼络了一些各式各样的“战略合作伙伴”，但说到底，那大多是一群“酒肉朋友”——有生意做时“门庭若市”热热闹闹，需要帮忙时则是“门可罗雀”遍寻不着踪影。远的例子不讲，就拿这次南海问题的激化、恶化、复杂化为例。中国一直以来推崇的“东盟10+3模式”，本来是着眼于亚太战略安全格局的一次重新整合，眼光可谓独到，运作时也是用尽了心机和血本。但是，美国突然横空插过来一杠子，而且一杆子到底，生生把中国苦心经营的“中日韩+东盟”的“10+3”模式，翻手变成了“美日韩+东盟”的新“10+3”模式，中国反而成了某种意义上的局外人。这一变局，显示了美国亚太地区盟友日、韩、菲律宾等国的力量和促动。而这种结局，不能不说是中国新版“光荣孤立”的结果。

其次，因为奉行“不干涉、不结盟、独立自主”的外交政策，中国在很多国际问题上秉持着“韬光养晦、绝不当头”的处事方针；在不涉及中国核心利益的议题上，中国保持一种超脱中立的姿态，谁也不得罪，但谁也不支持。于是，发展出了一种独特的“弃权外交”。这种做法，看似游刃有余，左右逢源，但其实是里外不是人，两头不落好。当事国会觉得中国这个联合国常任理事国没有原则和立场，而其他旁观的国家也会暗中将中国的超脱解读为“滑头”、不可靠。长此以往，不仅新的朋友交不到，而且原来的老朋友也会越来越疏远，离心离德，甚至反戈一击。而且，这种超然世外的外交模式，放在三十年前可以，但现在绝对适得其反。那时候，中国不显山不露水，跟在别人后面还可以“借借光”，顺便“韬韬光”；但现在中国是不折不扣的世界“老二”，后背已经被美国老大画成了靶心，想躲都躲不了。你想“和平崛起”，但人家是既不想让你“和平”，更不愿意看到你“崛起”。如果中国现在还扛着“不结盟”的大旗，那就太孤芳自赏，不懂得与时俱进了。

再次，我们现在的“不结盟”方针，与具体实施的外交政策有很多不一致，甚至是自相矛盾的地方。比如说，中朝、中缅虽然没有结盟，但中国对于朝鲜和缅甸的保护和袒护，可谓有求必应，两肋插刀，比一般的盟友还要盟友。而且，因为朝鲜和缅甸自身在世界上的孤立状态，中国为此耗费了大量的政治资源、外交资源，更不用去算声誉和印象等方面的“软实力”连带损失了。但是，正因为没有正式的盟友关系，虽然中国在联合国安理会罕有地动用否决权，多次为缅甸政府撑腰，但这并不妨碍缅甸首鼠两端，突然接住了美国抛过来的绣球，美缅高层走动频繁，给中国背后捅了一刀。如果未来的某一天，新当选的昂山素季政府，正式宣布美缅建立军事同盟关系，并将缅甸境内的公路和港口租借给美国军方使用，中国后悔恐怕都来不及了。

                细究起来，中国拒绝跟其他国家结盟，除了以前不太完美的结盟记忆以外，更多的是缘于两种不健康，也是不成熟的国家心态。一方面，中国传统文化中，沿承着一种“天朝上国”的自命清高，不齿与“蛮夷”为伍；这是过度自信的表现。另一方面，中国在与外国交往中，总是畏首畏尾，抱有着一种怕被坑蒙拐骗的小农心态；这是以前闭关锁国政策的动因，也是几百年闭关锁国政策的后遗症，总之是过度不自信的表现。两种心态，不仅不健康，而且不策略、不成熟。清朝以前的就不说了，从一战到二战，中国都是推三阻四，羞羞答答，很不情愿地（也是很有运气地）加入了战胜国的联盟。新中国成立后，中国也是一会儿“一边倒”，一会儿“一条线”，最终是“边”、“线”全丢；痛定思痛，于是决定“不以意识形态和社会制度划线”，四海之内皆兄弟也——一时间，几乎所有重要的国家都成了中国的某种“战略合作伙伴”。伙伴虽然越来越多，但大都是基于商业利益的驱使，几乎没有出于战略安全而结成的盟友。生意倒是越做越大，但中国的安全环境却也在不断恶化。这其实是把关于结盟的问题矫枉过正了。

             很多人认为，中国与其他国家结盟，会成为美国遏制中国、甚至公开与中国对抗的口实。这其实是既把问题想得过分复杂，又把问题想得过分简单了。首先，结盟并不意味着对抗，而是为了建立互信和安全合作机制，并在更均衡的框架下保证和平。当然，如果出现对抗，没有盟友的帮助是绝然不行的——以中国目前的能源安全和贸易安全格局为例，如果马六甲海峡一被堵死，中国60%的原油动脉和一半的贸易通道瞬间被卡断，在半年内就会被困死，渴死。另一方面，难道中国不结盟，就不会成为美国和西方的靶子吗？自从两年前美国高调宣称“回归亚洲”以后，中国的周边的“气”就越来越紧。事实是，不是中国愿不愿意对抗，而是这一次中国已经“被选择对抗”了。

                既然结盟势在必行，那么，和谁结呢？以中国目前的情况，最方便的选择是以“上合组织”为雏形，以中、俄为两大支点，通过中亚五国，并联合巴基斯坦、泰国、缅甸等国，形成一个跨欧亚的安全合作体系。这样，进可攻，退可守，而且能源安全、贸易出海口都同时能够得到保障。其实，在最初设计“上合组织”时，中国也是有着朦朦胧胧的考虑的，只不过碍于一贯的外交原则，将“不结盟”写进了“上合组织”的章程之中。 俄罗斯从叶利钦总统时期，就多次向中国示意；普京总统主政时，更是把话说得非常明朗，但中国一直没有正式表态，把这个议题搁置了。明年3月俄罗斯大选以后，不出意外，普京将重新出任俄罗斯的掌舵人；而中国也将在2012年秋季，进行领导人的代际更换。新的领导人，但是仍旧要面对相同的老问题。解决的思路，必须要推陈出新。对于中国来说，最当务之急的一条，就是要重新思考“不结盟”政策的适用性，并最终彻底放弃它。

上一篇 << 以“斑马”之心度“狮子”之腹—…     China should give up nonaligned policy

WuXu (doctor, city university of Hong Kong, the United States visiting professor Arizona state university professor)

from50S began, China has been will "non-aligned" as their international association of a big policy and principle.In recent years, every time the government published in the white paper, "non-aligned" as more will be a clear objective, key declare emphasis.For example, in2011years9The state council information office on publication "China's peaceful development" in the white paper, with this paragraph, China "to the five principles of peaceful coexistence with all countries, based on the development of friendly cooperation,Different countries and group of countries any alliance, not by the social system and ideology to the relationship between the similarities and differences between countries or."

This policy is a pointer, in the last few decades, indeed to China's attempt to certain foreign space and flexible free;But, as China's national strength and influence of steady ascend, as China's national interests and the extension of the internationalization, "non-aligned" the principle, has become a more and more Chinese strategic security a negative burden.According to the present international situation, China continues to adhere to the "non-aligned" the policy, is to have, Sally Jenkins.

First need to clear, the alliance, is not meant to be and the Allies make against, but based on the national covenant the highest form of communication between, delimit the responsibilities of both sides, really set up the height of mutual trust between countries, so as to build intricately interrelated, and honor the security architecture.Of course, in meeting the interests infringed Allies, according to the treaty principles, and other Allies to support to help, and on the same page.As the saying goes, "a fence three piles, 3 to help a hero", "brother, father and son soldiers for war";In times of crisis, ally is "helper" is "brothers".This aspect, made the most successful should belong to the United States-say, it has the Chinese "GeZongLianHeng", "YuanJiaoJinGong", "the most widely united front" principle alliance achieved perfection.Although the world is strong, has the number one economy with no one can watch with admiration of military, science and technology strength, the United States also the Allies most populous country, formal contract with military ally of the relationship between the country up to36A, all over the world all continents strategic position and the global each big war zone demarcated.Every time before use, the United States often first inspired the Allies, rich pay, has a gun out of the gun, someone out people, have no money not phonate also do.From world war one, world war ii, then to the cold war, and is now on the war on terror, MoBuRu is.The Allies stand in a 1-1 draw in front of Angle, hard power and soft power, artful strength, all three, often can with minimum input to the maximization of strategic interests.

By contrast, China is now the policy of "non-aligned" policy, then appears out of date and stagnant, and its defects is obvious.

First of all, in a lot of issues involving Chinese core interests, China on the world stage often appear alone, and no man.Neither the core of what can rely on Allies stand Angle to cheer, also do not have what can direct valuable assistants of pertains to.Although the temptation of interests by economy, also involve some all kinds of "strategic partners", but in the final analysis, it is mostly a group of "fair-weather friends"-a business doing "kind of a" lively, need help is "there" times find it to be seen.Far example do not speak, took the south China sea issue radicalising, degradation and complex as an example.China has been respected "asean10+3Mode ", it is focus on the asia-pacific strategic security pattern of a new integration, eye is original, operation is also used for all and lose. But, the us suddenly emerged in a GangZi come over, and a pole exactly, that China's elaborations of the "the China, Japan and South Korea+Asean ""10+3"Mode, and turn into a" beautiful memories of the hand+Asean "new"10+3"Mode, China became instead a sense of the outsider. This time, the asia-pacific region that American Allies Japan and South Korea, the Philippines and other countries of the strength and motivated. And this result, have to say, is the new" glorious isolation "results.

Second, because the tenet of "not to interfere in non-aligned, independent," foreign policy, China in many international issue clung to the "keeps a low profile, never a pledge" to the policy;In does not involve the issue of China's core interests, China keeps a detached a neutral stance, who also not to offend, but who also don't support.So, developed a unique "abstained diplomacy".This kind of practice, seemingly and ease, rounded, but in fact it is not a man, two head into good.Congress think China, the parties to the United Nations permanent member no principle and position, and the other on the sidelines of the country will also secretly will China's being interpreted as a "prick", is not reliable.In the long run, not only new friends make no, and the original old friend also will be more and more estranged, LiXinLiDe, mikael forssell after he even.Also, the detached world diplomatic mode, put in thirty years ago, but now absolutely counterproductive.At that time, China does not show hill not dew, with behind others can also "borrow excuse me", by the "baby Curtis' light";But China is now the real world "second", by American boss back already painted the bull 's-eye, want to hide to hide.You want to "peaceful rise", but the somebody else is both don't want you to "peace", more do not like to see your "rise".If the Chinese are now also carried "non-aligned" banner, that is too arrogantly, do not know to keep pace with The Times.

Again, we now of "non-aligned" policy, and the implementation of the foreign policy has many not consistent, and even contradictory place.For example, China and Burma, though no alliance, but China for north Korea and Burma's protection and favour, is responsive, and best Pal, than is commonly ally and Allies.And, because of north Korea and Burma itself in the world that the isolation, hence China took a lot of political resources, foreign resources, don't need to be more prestige and the impression, and other aspects of the "soft power" collateral damage.But, because no formal alliance, although China is unusually in the United Nations security council veto, many times for the Burmese government backing, but this does not interfere with myanmar's first on both ends of the rat, suddenly caught the United States come into colorful silk balls, beauty of simeon: top ambulate frequent, to stab a knife in China.If one day in the future, the newly elected government of aung SAN suu kyi, announced that set up a military alliance of simeon: beauty, and the roads and ports inside Burma on loan to the U.S. military use, China regret I'm afraid all too late.

                Looked up,China refuses to alliance with other countries, in addition to not so perfect before the alignment of the outside memory, more is due two not healthy, is not mature national mentality.On one hand, the traditional Chinese culture, the following the with a kind of "the middle kingdom," the great-hearted, contempt and "ManYi" men;This is overconfidence performance.On the other hand, China with foreign activities, it is always timidity, entertain a fear of a KengMeng kidnapping of small-scale peasant attitude;This was before seclusion of the causes of policy, also is hundreds of years seclusion policy sequela, anyhow is excessive unsure performance.Two state of mind, not only not healthy, and not strategy, not mature.The qing dynasty the previous did not say, from world war one to world war ii, China is TuiSanZuSi, tend to get shy, reluctantly (also is very luck) joined the victorious nation alliance.After new China was founded, China is also a while "one-sided" for a while, "a line," is ultimately "edge", "line" the lost;By then decided to "not to ideology and social system crossed", all within the four seas are brothers also--time, almost all of the important countries have become China's a "strategic partner".Although more and more partners, but mostly is based on business interests driven, almost no out of strategic security up of the Allies.Business is bigger and bigger, but China's security environment but also is getting worse and worse.This is actually about the alliance problem overkill.

             Many people think that, China and other countries alliance, will become the United States contain China, even with the public against China excuse.It is not only the question to too complex, and the problems to be too simple.First of all, alliance does not mean that fight, but to build trust and security cooperation mechanism, and more balanced in the framework of guarantee peace.Of course, if appear against, no Allies help is not absolute-to China's current energy security and trade security pattern, for example, if the malacca strait is a quartz, China60%Crude oil artery and half of the trade channel in a snap card to break, in half a year will be trapped die, and die of thirst.On the other hand, is China's non-aligned, won't be the target of America and the west?Since two years ago the United States that "return to Asia" high-profile later, China's peripheral "gas" more and more urgent.The fact is, not China willing to fight, but this time China has "be choose confrontation".

                Now that it is imperative to alliances, so, and who "?With China's current situation, the most convenient choice is with "the sco" as the prototype, with Russia and China, to two fulcrum, through the five central Asian countries, and joint Pakistan, Thailand, myanmar, and other countries, form a across Europe and Asia security cooperation system.So, into can attack, back can keep, and energy security, trade and to safeguard all blooms.In fact, in the original design "the sco", China is also a hazy consider, just due to the consistent foreign principle, "non-aligned" written into the sco in the articles. Russian President Boris yeltsin period from, for many times to China;President putin wants, but the words are very bright, but China has been no official comment, put a hold on this issue.Next year3After the general election on Russia, no accident, Mr Putin will be back as Russia chief;China will also be in2012Autumn years, the leaders of the intergenerational change.New leaders, but still want to face up to the same old problems.The solution, must want to emerge.For China, the most immediate priority one, is to rethink the applicability of the policy of "non-aligned", and finally thoroughly give it up.