牧羊犬怎么看长毛短毛:如何突破"马六甲困局" 专家称中国应加强海洋实力打造

2011年12月22日 09:41:56
来源： 环球网
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【字号：大中小】【打印】

中国海军成立60周年海上阅兵编队【资料图】
大量经济学家和历史学家已开始意识到，爆发于2008年的经济危机并不是全球金融体系的一次偶然震荡，而是以欧美为代表的西方走向持久性衰落的开端。在过去的200多年里，占人类总体人口很小比重的欧美人几乎掌握了对世界的绝对控制，现在，以中国、印度、印度尼西亚等人口大国为代表的亚洲的崛起已成为必然。中国将在未来数十年中摘得世界头号经济体的桂冠似乎已经没有悬念了。
但是，中国想要成为第一大国，必须尽快解决南海问题，打破美国在亚太地区的军事包围，维护中国的能源安全和贸易航运安全。能源安全是中国国家安全的重中之重。中国的能源消耗已于2010年超过美国，成为全世界最大的能源消费国。根据国际能源机构预测，2020年中国石油对外依存度将达到68％，而进口的原油主要来自沙特阿拉伯、安哥拉、伊朗、苏丹等中东和非洲国家，经过印度洋上漫长的集中运输，绕过马六甲海峡送往中国。这样一条看似稳妥历，帮助中国补给原油供应十多年的海上航道实则危机重重。
美国从上世纪50年代起就在前国务卿杜勒斯的倡议下在亚太地区倾力打造了三条军事“岛链”，原本的目的是为了围堵共产主义的全球扩张，现在则主要为了遏制中国的崛起。其中，“太平洋第一岛链”最靠近中国本土，耗资巨大，由北向南经过日本群岛、琉球群岛、台湾岛、菲律宾群岛和大巽他群岛（包括文莱、马来西亚和印度尼西亚）。虽然目前中美交战的可能性较低，但是，一旦双方由于台湾或南海等敏感问题发生冲突，以美国在亚洲的军事实力，美军可以轻而易举地封锁马六甲这条最窄处仅1.5英里的航道，中国能源补给的咽喉将被死死地锁紧。这就是“马六甲困局”。
为了突破“马六甲困局”，中国政府已有初步对策，并投入了相应的外交努力。中国同巴基斯坦和缅甸政府已经达成了实质性的协议，将铺设铁路和输油管道，在西部阿拉伯海域连接巴基斯坦的卡拉奇港和新疆，东部孟加拉湾连接缅甸的实兑港和云南。原油从印度洋到中国的航运距离将被缩短数千公里，不仅可以避免经过危机四伏的马六甲海峡，运输成本和时间也将大大减少。
除在陆地上“绕路”外，中国还应加强海洋军事实力的打造。近日，西印度洋岛国塞舌尔向中国军方发出了在塞修建军事基地的邀请，虽然中国一直奉行不在海外驻军的“韬光养晦”的外交战略，但开辟海外军事基地是中国成为世界性强国要走的必要一步，也是中国打造“蓝水海军”，维护中国海洋主权和经济权益的实质性举措。
最稳妥的安全保证，就是夺回南海主权，不仅能够有效地扩张中国在东南亚的军事存在，削弱美国在亚太地区的军事辐射半径，而且由于日本、韩国和台湾的原油运输和进出口的货品对马六甲国际航道的严重依赖，在可预见的未来，如果中美交战，可以先发制人地夺取马六甲制海权，给日韩等美国牢固的军事盟国进行沉重打击。再者，如果大陆决定以武力实现国家统一，在台海一战中控制马六甲也就意为着对台湾实现了能源和经济封锁。此外，根据英国石油公司（BP）世界能源统计年的数据显示，在南中国海的石油储量可能达到2130亿桶，相当于沙特阿拉伯石油储量的80％，天然气储量可能达到2千万亿立方英尺，相当于北美洲天然气储量的五倍之多。一旦南海能源储量探明并投入开采，中国能源补给将在未来数十年之内得到充分的保障。（郑人元）
How to break through the "malacca boat" experts said China should strengthen the strength make
On December 22, 2011 09:41:56
Source:The web
Xinhua micro bo

The text:biginsmall】 【print】

China's navy sixtieth anniversary Marine parade formation 【 material figure 】
A large economists and historians have started to realize that broke out in 2008 years of economic crisis and not the global financial system by chance at a concussion, but with Europe and the United States as a representative of the west to the beginning of the persistent decline.In the past 200 years, of human population is small proportion of europeans almost mastered the absolute control of the world, and now, with China, India, Indonesia, as a representative of the population of the rise of Asia has become inevitable.China will in the decades ahead, the crown of the world's leading economies took seems to have no doubt anymore.
But, China wants to become the first country, must solve the south China sea issue as soon as possible, break in the asia-pacific region surrounded by the military, safeguard China's energy security and trade shipping safety.Energy security is a national security priority.China's energy consumption has more than the United States in 2010 to become the world's largest consumer of energy.According to the international energy agency forecasts, 2020 China petroleum external dependence will reach 68%, while imports of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, main Angola, Iran, Sudan and the Middle East and Africa, after the Indian Ocean on long transportation, around the strait of malacca sent to China.Such a seemingly safe calendar, help China supply crude oil supply 10 years of sea channel but with crisis.
The United States from the 1950 s in the former secretary of state under the sponsorship of Dulles in the Asia Pacific region china-largest out three military "lines", the original purpose is to containment of communism global expansion, and is now mainly in order to curb the rise of China.Among them, "the Pacific first archipelago" the most close to the Chinese mainland, costly, from north to south through Japanese islands, the ryukyu islands, Taiwan, the Philippines and big sunda islands (including brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia).Although China are currently the possibility of war is low, but, once both sides because Taiwan or the south China sea and other sensitive problem conflict, by American military power in Asia, U.S. forces can easily blockade malacca article this the narrowest point only 1.5 miles channel, China's energy supplies will be locked into the throat of the lock.This is "the malacca dilemma".
In order to break through the malacca boat ", the Chinese government has an initial countermeasures, and put into the corresponding diplomatic efforts.China with Pakistan and Burma's government has been the substantive agreement, will be laid railway and the oil pipeline, in the west sea link Arab Karachi Pakistan port and xinjiang, east Bengal myanmar's sittwe port connection and yunnan.Crude oil from the Indian Ocean to China's shipping distance would be shortened thousands of kilometers, not only can avoid after crisis the strait of malacca, transportation cost and time will also be dramatically reduced.
Except on land "stalkers" outside, China should also be strengthened military strength the making of the sea.Recently, the west Indian island to the Chinese military issued the seychelles in plug the invitation of the military base construction, although China has been pursuing overseas garrison is not the "power" diplomatic strategy, but open up overseas military base is the China to become a world power to go necessary step, is also China to build the "navy blue," safeguard China's sovereignty and economic rights and interests of the sea substantial measures.
The most reliable safety guarantee, the south China sea sovereignty is back, not only effectively expansion of China's military presence in southeast Asia, weaken in the asia-pacific region of military radiation radius, and because of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan's crude oil import and export of goods for transport and malacca international navigation rely heavily on, in the foreseeable future, if the battle, to capture the malacca seas can be pre-emptive, Japan and South Korea to America, such as the military Allies on firm heavy blow.Moreover, if the continent decided to force reunification, Taiwan strait of malacca in world war I and control means to realize the energy for Taiwan and economic blockade.In addition, according to the British petroleum (BP) world energy statistics data shows that in the south China sea oil reserves could reach 213 billion barrels, equivalent to Saudi Arabia's oil reserves, 80% of the natural gas reserves could reach 2 quadrillion cubic feet, equivalent to North America of natural gas reserves, five times as many.Once proven reserves in the south China sea energy and mining, China's energy supplies in the coming decades to get sufficient protection.(zheng one yuan)