China's foreign reserves

Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?

Window-shopping with China’s central bank 

中国的外汇储备

谁想过把万亿大款的瘾？

BY THE end of last year, China's foreign-exchange reserves amounted to $2.85 trillion. Although China ran a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year on April 14th the country's central bank released new figures showing that its reserves at the end of March had soared above $3 trillion.

截止去年年底，中国的外汇储备已经有2.85万亿美元了。虽然中国在今年第一季度很稀罕地入超了，但4月14日中国央行发布的最新数据显示他们的外汇储备在3月底已经飙过了3万亿美元。

China’s central bank has a lot of money but not a lot of imagination. It keeps a big chunk of its reserves in boring American government securities. That means it can count on getting its dollars back. But it frets about how much those dollars will be worth should America succumb to inflation or depreciation.

中国的央行有的是钱，但没啥想象力。它的外汇储备里，划了巨大的一块投在无聊的美国国债上。这意味着它可以指望着把自己美元捞回来。但是，如果美国败给了通胀或者贬值，那中国就要为这些美元能值多少而头疼了。

So what else could China do with the money? Instead of the dollar, China might fancy the euro. China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice. And it would still have almost half of its reserves left over.

那么，中国拿着这笔钱还能干嘛？抛去美元，中国也许会迷恋上欧元。中国可以一气买下西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊四国所有未偿还的主权债券，瞬间解决欧元区的债务危机*。而且中国仍然还能剩余近一半的储备在手。

【译者注：欧元区债务危机：2009年12月，全球三大评级公司标普、穆迪和惠誉分别下调希腊的主权债务评级，此后欧洲多个国家也开始陷入危机，“欧猪五国 PIIGS”(葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙)的信用评级被调低，经济下滑，债台高筑，整个欧洲面临严峻考验。2010年5月10日，欧盟27国财长被迫决定设立总额为7500亿欧元的救助机制，帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国，防止危机继续蔓延。危机至今还在困扰着欧洲。】

It might, alternatively, choose to abandon debt altogether and buy equity. China could gobble up Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for less than $1 trillion. It could also follow the lead of those sheikhs and oligarchs who like to buy English football clubs. According to Forbes magazine, the 50 most valuable sports franchises around the world were worth only $50.4 billion last year, less than 2% of China’s reserves.

中国也可以换个方向，选择抛开所有债券去炒股。中国可以用不到一万亿美元一口吞下苹果、微软、IBM和古狗*。它也可以学学中东油霸和俄国寡头买买英超俱乐部**。根据《福布斯》***杂志，去年全球价值最高的前50个运动俱乐部总值504亿美元，还不到中国外汇储备的2%  .

【译者注：*苹果Apple，4月20日市值3154.5亿美元；微软Microsoft，4月20日市值2164.5亿美元；IBM，4月20日市值2009.2亿美元；古狗Google4月20日市值1690.3亿美元。四家公司总市值是9018.5亿美元。

**俄罗斯富豪阿布拉莫维奇在2003年买下英超切尔西俱乐部，至今总投入超过4.5亿英镑；阿布扎比联合集团2008年买下英超曼城俱乐部，至今总投入超过5.7亿英镑。

***《福布斯》Forbes为双周刊杂志，每期刊登60多篇对公司和公司经营者的评论性文章，被誉为“美国经济的晴雨表”。】

Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?

国际富豪们还青睐于投资在不动产上。也许中国应该买下一些曼哈顿的尊贵房产。诶，干嘛不买下整个曼哈顿呢？按照纽约市政府的说法，整个岛可征税的房产总之也就仅仅2870亿美元而已。而华盛顿特区的房产只值区区2320亿美元。中国已经习惯当华盛顿*的债主了，何不干脆直接当地主算了？

【*华盛顿，此处双关，指美国。前面的华盛顿特区Washington, D.C是首都，总面积177平方公里。】

China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion.

中国也可以减轻他们对能源、食物和军事安全的焦虑。三万亿美元可以买下今年全球石油总供应量的88%   .在美国大陆买下所有农田（包括农场建筑）仅仅需要1.86万亿美元（2009年的价格）。而中国理论上可以买下美国的整个国防部，根据国防部的2010年资产报表，它的财产总值是1.9万亿美元。而且这个数据中很大部分还是土地、建筑物和投资所值；那些枪啊炮啊坦克啊啥啥的军事装备其实只值4137亿美元罢了。

These frivolous calculations illustrate the vast scale of China’s reserves but also the great difficulty it faces in diversifying them. Any purchase big enough to warrant China’s attention will also move the market against it. China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price.

以上这些琐细无厘头的计算，反映了中国外汇储备规模之巨大，但同时也说明了中国在投资多样化时所面对的巨大困难。任何一项购置交易，只要规模大到足以确保得到中国的关注，就也会引发市场为之而动荡。中国可以报价买下几乎任何东西——但想用现价那基本上什么也买不到。