奔驰各系列区别:Euro below US$1.30 (1)

Bank lending in China slowed to Yuan562.2bn, as compared with Yuan587bn in October. In addition, M2 rose by just +12.7%, the slowest since May 2001 (source Bloomberg). There is no doubt that the Chinese authorities will ease further, though I remain sceptical as to whether it will be enough, given the structure and serious imbalances of the economy;

Inflation in India (the wholesale price index) declined to +9.11% in November as compared with +9.73% in October, though slightly higher than the consensus of +9.02%. However, lower inflation (which is expected to continue) will enable the RBI to ease monetary policy in the New Year (the last of the major S/S E Asian countries to do so).
Analysts expect the RBI to be on hold this week (16th December), following recent statements by the RBI. Bond yields continue to decline and the Rupee (down 16% against the US$ YTD) weakens further – a trend I expect to continue;

Putin may dump Medvedev in an attempt to bolster his Presidential aspirations – he remains the favourite to regain the post. Russian’s have been critical of the proposed job swap. The move may help Putin a bit, but his position, in particular in dealings internally and with foreign countries will be weaker. Currently Russia needs a US$100bpd oil price. With the expected increase in spending ahead of the Presidential elections, that will increase to maintain a balanced budget. Expect a weaker Ruble, uncertain equity markets and continued capital flight It is widely believed that Russian Oligarch Mr Prokhorov’s bid for the Russian Presidency has been sanctioned by Putin, who wants to allege competition for the role – children’s games basically;

Continued problems in Hungary are affecting Austrian and Italian banks- basically Hungarian homeowners borrowed in Swiss Francs, rather than HUF’s to get lower interest rates, forgetting the currency mismatch – Oops. Other CEE homeowners did the same eg in Poland. CEE will remain a HUGE risk for Euro Zone banks and the EU. Watch this one;