建言宏观调控系列之八

人民财评：在提高经济增长质量上狠下功夫

景学成

2011年12月14日07:10    来源：人民网-财经频道     手机看新闻

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The economy has already published figures show that China's economic growth index reached a plateau, annual GDP is expected to grow by 9.5%, than last year fell back slightly, conform to the macroeconomic regulation and control expected, inflation pressure to ease, but prices are still time highs.

This round of price control characteristic is like a parabolic decline, not the vertical drop, also don't expect future vertical auto-fall sport.So, we want to do long-term plan, the focus of our work on the structure reform and the transformation growth mode, also don't always focus on the market of monetary policy on reasonable.Prices have risen by present parabolic type decline, comply with regulatory expectations, show that China's economy is in benign operation of.

In October, 70 major cities new housing price is an average drop of 0.13% last month.It is the Chinese government began to carry out the control policy for two years real estate prices first appeared annulus comparing decline.Have two years of real estate regulation produced results.In 2012 the real estate market regulation still won't have any sway, the goal is not only to make house prices to return to the reasonable level, and at the same time, promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate industry.This needs to be defined reasonable guarantee room construction and land supply of the commodity housing development and financing scale, more multi-purpose means to regulate the market supply and demand, with tax administrative means means instead of regulating the real estate market structure.

In this context, China's economic growth needed to improve the quality of malicious hard, take timely fine-tune the targeted the steady monetary policy and the positive fiscal policy, consolidate the regulation results, and to take the opportunity to launch key institutional reform and innovation measures, economic structure, timely adjust the industrial structure and the transformation of development mode, and promote the balanced development of economic society.

"1025" period, our country for infrastructure construction and new strategic industry total investment of the aggregate to will achieve 34.3 trillion yuan of RMBS, an average annual investment of 6.7 trillion.The future will mainly focus on security room, municipal, transportation facilities, water conservancy facilities and new material and new energy fields, and become China's economic growth of the inner driving force.

According to "1025 planning" demand increased industry mergers restructuring efforts, and improve the quality of growth.For example, automobile, such as steel and cement, the traditional industry for merger and reorganization, through the industry mergers and restructuring, productivity, energy consumption of out behind not the market development of the enterprise, in order to integrate the advantage resources, enterprise structure pave the transformation, and will be more effectively promote industrial upgrading, and promote the healthy development of the market, improve the quality of economic growth.

To develop regional economy and industrial investment to be a regional investment by the change.From Shanghai as the core, along shanghai-nanjing and hang-yong line, along the coast, bay, and, along the better lake, lake, hangzhou line along the east LongHaiXian, along the canal, along the lines of the development of the WenLi jinqu for "a nuclear nine belt", the bridgehead in yunnan, zhoushan emerging Marine demonstration area, to the jilin province development and opening lead long auspicious chart area, the rapid development of the regional economy drive over the industrial upgrade, the future will be the country's future economic development new window.

At the same time, the use of fiscal and monetary resources to support the readjustment of the economic structure, promote major reform measures.More broad strategic vision and policy vision, should not be a "slight" will be the focus of the problems in the monetary policy on reasonable.For example: hold the reform of the RMB internationalization "key", promote the interest rate and exchange rate marketization reform, the development of small and medium-sized enterprise financing system, break the monopoly and proper guide folk capital, promote foreign exchange reserves diversification of use, vigorously implement "China in the debt-to-equity asset".

In addition, in the foreign trade export, can China's implementation of the Marshall plan.China to Europe, the United States and Japan the traditional market trade growth slowed, and emerging market countries trade growth relatively strong.According to the customs statistics, top 10 months, the bilateral trade worth $466.94 billion, an increase of 20.2%.Over the same period, bilateral trade value is 363.03 billion dollars, up by 16.8%.But China and Brazil, Russia and South Africa and other countries bilateral trade growth exceeded 30%.

Through the increase of developing countries and the European debt crisis of state aid to promote foreign export growth.This is not only beneficial to the promotion of China's foreign exchange reserve assets of the diversification of China's foreign exchange reserves in order to reduce the risk of exposed, but also can foreign development strategy plan as a whole, will China's economic diplomacy, China's foreign aid strategy, China enterprise of overseas investment, China commodity exports, China's domestic excess capacity of digestion, even the RMB internationalization into a whole development framework.In China the relative before international aid and overseas investment, the integrated strong strategic contributes to China's national interests maximization.

At present, we should speed up the pace of RMB internationalization.Our country is in a rapid development period, this time the various conditions are favorable to us.To achieve the goal of RMB internationalization must make a strategic, including the ultimate goal, the basic route and rough schedules to stabilize the market, stable anticipation, prevent systemic risk.

In 2011 structure adjustment produced results, and on the basis of the economy in 2012 should be keep certain growth at the same time, also improve the quality, so as to achieve the "turn the way, structure, the growth" overall goal.(the author is harmonious strategy research alliance, this paper represents the content of individual opinion)(responsibility editor: lee