偶看新闻战舰少女r 组队任务:俄罗斯面临资本外逃
来源：百度文库 编辑：偶看新闻 时间：2024/04/29 03:32:32
2011年 12月 07日 12:00 俄罗斯面临资本外逃
评论(11) 今年以来，俄罗斯已有640亿美元资本外流，而经济学家说，接下来几个月，随着总理普京(Vladimir Putin)所在的统一俄罗斯党在议会选举中的疲弱表现加剧政治上的不确定性，资本外逃趋势可能还会加强。
财政部长西卢安诺夫(Anton Siluanov)周一晚间说，预计2011年资本净流出量将超过850亿美元。这种情况被归咎于担心政府重组的欧洲银行和俄罗斯富人。
相关报道
俄罗斯杜马选举 普京所在党可能遇挫
普京回归 增加改革阻力
谁将成为俄罗斯下一任总统？财长做出这种悲观预测的同时，惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)也对俄罗斯政治上的不确定性发出警示。之前一天，杜马选举结束，普京所在的统俄党得票率不足50%。普京周二说，他预计，在定于明年3月举行的总统选举之后，政府将有认真的、大规模的人事调整。预计普京仍可轻松赢得总统选举。
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻莫斯科首席经济学家泽普里亚娃(Julia Tsepliaeva)说，目前人们不知道明年哪些官员还在，哪些官员不在；如果某个商人或企业跟某位官员有安排，这种不确定性可能会导致他们把资本转移到国外。
今年的资本外逃打压了俄罗斯卢布。尽管俄罗斯今年的平均石油价格高于以往任何年头，但卢布汇率较今年峰值已贬值15%以上。在希腊等欧元区国家引发债务恐慌、欧洲银行希望进一步获得流动性之际，裕信(UniCredit SpA)在莫斯科的子公司在今年第三季度向俄罗斯以外的银行至少发放了55亿美元的贷款，其中包括给裕信其他子公司的贷款。除了政治因素以外，如果石油价格大幅下跌，或欧洲债务危机恶化，那么流出莫斯科的资金可能还会更多。
苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)新兴市场负责人阿什(Tim Ash)说，俄罗斯领导人需要有远见，俄罗斯除了稳定或现状以外，还需要有更多的东西；如果没有实实在在的改革，即使油价不降，资本也会继续外流。
但市场观察者曾提出疑问：面对得票率的下降，普京是将启动新的改革，还是将对经济、政治进程加强控制？
阿什说，如果明年油价稳定在当前水平，资本会以当前速度继续外逃。阿尔法银行(Alfa Bank)首席经济学家奥尔洛娃(Natalia Orlova)说，她预计2012年的外流量将至少达到400亿美元，但考虑到杜马选举可能有的后续影响，这个数字可能过低。
但有些经济学家预计，到明年下半，随着新政府结构变得明朗起来，资本流动将会转为净流入。
法国巴黎银行的泽普里亚娃说，如果企业在政府当中有足够的人脉，它们在俄罗斯可以挣到在其他地方挣不到的钱。
2011年 12月 07日 12:00 Russia Faces Capital Flight
Capital flight from Russia, already at $64 billion this year, is likely to intensify in coming months as a weak showing by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in parliamentary elections heightens political uncertainty, economists said.
The net capital outflow, blamed on European banks and wealthy Russians concerned about a government shake-up, is now expected to exceed $85 billion in 2011, acting Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said late Monday.
The bearish forecast came as Fitch Ratings warned about political uncertainty in Russia, a day after voting ended in the Duma election, with Putin's United Russia getting less than 50% of the vote. Mr. Putin on Tuesday said he sees 'serious and substantial renewals' in government personnel after presidential elections set for March of next year--which he is still expected to win handily.
'People at the moment don't have an idea which officials will be around next year and who will be gone,' said Julia Tsepliaeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Moscow. 'If you're a businessman or a company that has an arrangement with a certain bureaucrat, this lack of clarity may lead you to move capital abroad.'
The exodus of capital this year has weighed on the ruble, which has weakened by more than 15% from its peak this year, even as the average price for Russia's oil this year is higher than ever before. UniCredit SpA's Moscow unit sent at least $5.5 billion abroad in the third quarter through loans to non-Russian banks, including other units of UniCredit, as European lenders sought additional liquidity amid a debt scare linked to Greece and other euro-zone nations. Politics aside, a steep drop in oil prices or a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe could suck even more cash out of Moscow.
Russia's leadership 'needs to have vision, and Russia needs more than stability or the status quo,' said Tim Ash, head of emerging markets at Royal Bank of Scotland. 'Unless we see real, meaningful change, outflows will continue, even if we see no drop in oil prices.'
Market watchers, however, have questioned whether Mr. Putin will respond to dipping poll numbers by initiating new reforms-or more tightly controlling the economic and political process.
Next year's outflows are likely to continue at the current pace if oil prices stay at present levels, Ash said. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, said she expects 2012 outflows to hit at least $40 billion, although that number may be too low considering possible fallout from the Duma election.
Some economists, however, expect capital flows to turn positive in the second half of next year, when the make-up of the new government becomes clear.
'There is no place to make the kind of money businesses can make here, if they have the proper administrative connections,' BNP's Ms. Tsepliaeva said.
IRA IOSEBASHVILI
评论(11) 今年以来，俄罗斯已有640亿美元资本外流，而经济学家说，接下来几个月，随着总理普京(Vladimir Putin)所在的统一俄罗斯党在议会选举中的疲弱表现加剧政治上的不确定性，资本外逃趋势可能还会加强。
财政部长西卢安诺夫(Anton Siluanov)周一晚间说，预计2011年资本净流出量将超过850亿美元。这种情况被归咎于担心政府重组的欧洲银行和俄罗斯富人。
相关报道
俄罗斯杜马选举 普京所在党可能遇挫普京回归 增加改革阻力谁将成为俄罗斯下一任总统？财长做出这种悲观预测的同时，惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)也对俄罗斯政治上的不确定性发出警示。之前一天，杜马选举结束，普京所在的统俄党得票率不足50%。普京周二说，他预计，在定于明年3月举行的总统选举之后，政府将有认真的、大规模的人事调整。预计普京仍可轻松赢得总统选举。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻莫斯科首席经济学家泽普里亚娃(Julia Tsepliaeva)说，目前人们不知道明年哪些官员还在，哪些官员不在；如果某个商人或企业跟某位官员有安排，这种不确定性可能会导致他们把资本转移到国外。
今年的资本外逃打压了俄罗斯卢布。尽管俄罗斯今年的平均石油价格高于以往任何年头，但卢布汇率较今年峰值已贬值15%以上。在希腊等欧元区国家引发债务恐慌、欧洲银行希望进一步获得流动性之际，裕信(UniCredit SpA)在莫斯科的子公司在今年第三季度向俄罗斯以外的银行至少发放了55亿美元的贷款，其中包括给裕信其他子公司的贷款。除了政治因素以外，如果石油价格大幅下跌，或欧洲债务危机恶化，那么流出莫斯科的资金可能还会更多。
苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)新兴市场负责人阿什(Tim Ash)说，俄罗斯领导人需要有远见，俄罗斯除了稳定或现状以外，还需要有更多的东西；如果没有实实在在的改革，即使油价不降，资本也会继续外流。
但市场观察者曾提出疑问：面对得票率的下降，普京是将启动新的改革，还是将对经济、政治进程加强控制？
阿什说，如果明年油价稳定在当前水平，资本会以当前速度继续外逃。阿尔法银行(Alfa Bank)首席经济学家奥尔洛娃(Natalia Orlova)说，她预计2012年的外流量将至少达到400亿美元，但考虑到杜马选举可能有的后续影响，这个数字可能过低。
但有些经济学家预计，到明年下半，随着新政府结构变得明朗起来，资本流动将会转为净流入。
法国巴黎银行的泽普里亚娃说，如果企业在政府当中有足够的人脉，它们在俄罗斯可以挣到在其他地方挣不到的钱。
2011年 12月 07日 12:00 Russia Faces Capital Flight
Capital flight from Russia, already at $64 billion this year, is likely to intensify in coming months as a weak showing by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in parliamentary elections heightens political uncertainty, economists said.
The net capital outflow, blamed on European banks and wealthy Russians concerned about a government shake-up, is now expected to exceed $85 billion in 2011, acting Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said late Monday.
The bearish forecast came as Fitch Ratings warned about political uncertainty in Russia, a day after voting ended in the Duma election, with Putin's United Russia getting less than 50% of the vote. Mr. Putin on Tuesday said he sees 'serious and substantial renewals' in government personnel after presidential elections set for March of next year--which he is still expected to win handily.
'People at the moment don't have an idea which officials will be around next year and who will be gone,' said Julia Tsepliaeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Moscow. 'If you're a businessman or a company that has an arrangement with a certain bureaucrat, this lack of clarity may lead you to move capital abroad.'
The exodus of capital this year has weighed on the ruble, which has weakened by more than 15% from its peak this year, even as the average price for Russia's oil this year is higher than ever before. UniCredit SpA's Moscow unit sent at least $5.5 billion abroad in the third quarter through loans to non-Russian banks, including other units of UniCredit, as European lenders sought additional liquidity amid a debt scare linked to Greece and other euro-zone nations. Politics aside, a steep drop in oil prices or a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe could suck even more cash out of Moscow.
Russia's leadership 'needs to have vision, and Russia needs more than stability or the status quo,' said Tim Ash, head of emerging markets at Royal Bank of Scotland. 'Unless we see real, meaningful change, outflows will continue, even if we see no drop in oil prices.'
Market watchers, however, have questioned whether Mr. Putin will respond to dipping poll numbers by initiating new reforms-or more tightly controlling the economic and political process.
Next year's outflows are likely to continue at the current pace if oil prices stay at present levels, Ash said. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, said she expects 2012 outflows to hit at least $40 billion, although that number may be too low considering possible fallout from the Duma election.
Some economists, however, expect capital flows to turn positive in the second half of next year, when the make-up of the new government becomes clear.
'There is no place to make the kind of money businesses can make here, if they have the proper administrative connections,' BNP's Ms. Tsepliaeva said.
IRA IOSEBASHVILI