偶看新闻天大木门官网:日本地震科学家发表文章对四川汶川地震后计算中国西部未来的地震预测
来源：百度文库 编辑：偶看新闻 时间：2024/04/29 19:31:59
地震并不致命，倒塌的建筑会危害人身安全
该研究团队的成员之一斯坦(RossStein)说，"大地震的可能性不是减小反而是增大。"专家认为鲜水河、昆仑、泯江断裂带会产生"多米诺骨牌"效应，这些断裂带离龙门山断裂带的距离在150公里至450公里之间。而"5.12 "八级大地震正是祸起龙门山断裂带。
该团队的华裔地球物理学家林间说，青藏高原属于世界上的地震活跃区之一。"我们认为，有可信的证据表明这个地区还将发生大地震。"这位专家说，地震本身不是致命的，但倒塌的建筑会危害人身安全。所以，必须系统地检查建筑物防震安全，并搞好防震教育。
科学家预测，在未来10年，在该区域再次发生6级或6级以上地震的机率在57%－71%；发生7级以上地震的机率在同期内为8%－12%；但在未来30年里，该区域发生7级或更大地震的机率上升至23%－30%之间。
文章原文 摘要链接http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL034903.shtml
The Wenchuan earthquake on the LongmenShan fault zone devastated cities of Sichuan, claiming at least 69,000lives. We calculate that the earthquake also brought the Xianshuihe,Kunlun and Min Jiang faults 150–400 km from the mainshock rupture inthe eastern Tibetan Plateau 0.2–0.5 bars closer to Coulomb failure.Because some portions of these stressed faults have not ruptured inmore than a century, the earthquake could trigger or hasten additionalM > 7 earthquakes, potentially subjecting regions from Kangding toDaofu and Maqin to Rangtag to strong shaking. We use the calculatedstress changes and the observed background seismicity to forecast therate and distribution of damaging shocks. The earthquake probability inthe region is estimated to be 57–71% for M ≥ 6 shocks during the nextdecade, and 8–12% for M ≥ 7 shocks. These are up to twice theprobabilities for the decade before the Wenchuan earthquake struck. Received 5June2008;accepted 23July2008;published 9September2008. Abstract