胖人穿衣搭配网:中国政府加大力度培育离岸人民币市场

2011年 11月 29日 09:48 中国政府加大力度培育离岸人民币市场
评论(1) 中国正在采取措施培育境外人民币新兴市场，此举表明中国正努力在全球贸易增长放缓的情况下重振人民币的发展势头。

在中国的指导下，香港人民币市场在过去一年间发展迅猛，成为全球发展速度最快的外汇市场。但香港离岸人民币市场也面临新的发展制约因素，其中包括跨境贸易疲软导致人民币存款增长放缓，以及市场认为人民币升值不再是板上钉钉的事情。

相关阅读专栏：人民币升值过程或将戛然而止
专栏：向人民币时代迈进
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汇丰控股（HSBC Holdings PLC）亚太区全球市场主管范礼泉(Gordon French)称，除非全球市场的信心提升，否则市场将低速增长。

汇市观察者认为，香港离岸人民币市场仍然拥有充分的发展空间。但考虑到这一市场增速放缓，中国政府已采取更多措施来保证离岸人民币市场的增长，并誓言做出进一步努力。

周一，中国官方媒体新华社报道说，有关部门将加快实施先前宣布的一项计划，允许外国公司将在海外积累的人民币投资于中国内地证券市场。中国也在银行间外汇市场增加澳元和加元兑人民币的交易。最近几周，中国官员开始允许更多中国内地企业在离岸市场发行人民币计价债券，并将同香港的货币互换规模扩大了一倍，以便外资银行能向客户提供更多人民币。

有关部门也表示出进一步方便资本进出内地市场的意图。中国人民银行金融市场司司长谢多上周三在出席“中国全球债务资本市场研讨会”时说，随着人民币在海外得到更广泛的使用，中国将逐步推进开放国内的债券市场，允许更多海外实体投资国内债市，同时还将扩大国内实体的离岸债券发行规模。

知情人士透露，做出上述举动之前，中国政府官员曾就离岸人民币存款增速放缓的原因向多家银行进行非正式的调查。多名知情人士称，本月初中国央行官员曾同香港银行业高管会面，双方在港一同出席了一个仪式，庆祝中国银行(香港)有限公司继续成为香港唯一的人民币业务清算行。

Reuters其中一位知情人士说，中国央行官员试图弄清香港人民币存款增速放缓的原因，他们对此表达了关切。

人民币想要提升国际化的程度，并成为像美元、欧元和日圆那样的储值货币还面临很多重大障碍，排在首位的便是人民币要实现完全可兑换。但这要求中国允许资本跨境自由流动，而政府一直不愿意这样做，担心会因此失去对发展中的金融体系和严重依赖出口的经济的控制。

迄今为止，中国政府推出的力度最大的举措是允许跨境贸易使用人民币结算。使用人民币结算的贸易量约占中国贸易总量的10%，而一年前这一比例还不到1%。

但随着跨境贸易在全球经济不确定性的影响下有所疲弱，人民币存款增速也出现了放缓。在贸易增长减速的情况下，那些做跨境贸易的公司往往会减少作为支付款的人民币的存储。

据中国央行统计，今年第三季度跨境贸易人民币结算总额第一次出现季度性回落，从第二季度的5,970亿元降至5,830亿元(合913亿美元)。而相当于香港央行的香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority，简称：香港金管局)数据显示，香港9月人民币存款环比增长2.2%，达到6,220亿元，低于8月6.4%的环比增速。很多分析人士现在预计，香港10月份的人民币存款增速会进一步减慢，投资者不再认为人民币会只涨不跌，因此可能会减少手中持有的人民币。

花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)驻新加坡亚洲外汇与利率策略主管佩雷特-格林(Patrick Perret-Green)说，从某种程度上来讲，人民币离岸市场现在正处于一个十字路口，但因为市场规模仍很小，所以在遇到任何真正的麻烦之前，还可以有很大的增长空间。

以前，人民币贸易结算大多是中国公司向外国供应商支付人民币，这种情况直到最近才有所改变。但据银行业高管表示，最近几周因为人民币币值在离岸市场上出现了下跌，相对于内地市场的人民币有所折价，所以有更多的中国出口商愿意外国公司向其支付人民币。

香港金管局总裁陈德霖(Norman Chan)上周三说，9月份通过跨境贸易结算净流出香港的人民币资金达到195亿元，因向中国内地支付的人民币资金超过向香港支付的规模。

短期来看，北京方面推动海外使用人民币的新举措也许能帮助人民币离岸市场继续增长，这是贸易和投资活动以及债券销售增多的必然结果。

据汇丰银行数据，人民币债券(亦称点心债券)市场规模今年增加了两倍，其中未偿债券达到2,100亿元左右。但德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)亚洲债券资本市场主管Michael Lam说，随着投资者对人民币升值预期的降低，明年新债券销售额增速可能会放缓。他说，今年早些时候，人们曾预计香港人民币存款到今年底会达到1万亿元，现在看起来，这显然是个难以实现的目标。

上周四，总部位于上海的中国国有钢铁制造商宝钢集团有限公司(Baosteel Group Corp.)成了除金融机构外首个发行点心债券的中国内地企业。宝钢集团共发行了36亿元点心债券，收益率在3.125%至4.375%之间。

此外，中国正在采取措施，减少点心债券发行商将海外筹集的人民币带回中国内地时面临的繁琐程序，特别是外国公司。

苏格兰皇家银行集团(Royal Bank of Scotland)亚洲债券资本市场联合主管Augusto King说，跨国公司可能会发现，现在比以前更可预知能否将募得资金汇回内地。

China Pushes to Buck Up Yuan Market

China is taking steps to nurture growth of the fledgling market for its currency outside its borders, in an apparent effort to restore its momentum amid a slowdown in world trade.

Under China's guidance, Hong Kong's market for yuan has surged over the past year to become the fastest-growing currency market in the world. But what is known as the offshore yuan market faces new constraints, including slower growth of yuan deposits as a result of weakening cross-border trade and a belief that the currency is no longer a sure bet to rise in value.

'It will be a lower-growth environment until there is more confidence in global markets,' said Gordon French, head of global markets in the Asia-Pacific region for HSBC Holdings PLC.

Currency watchers say the nascent market still has plenty of room to grow. But mindful of the slowdown, Beijing has taken more steps to keep the market growing and has vowed to make further efforts.

On Monday, China's state-run Xinhua news agency said officials would accelerate implementation of a previously announced program that would allow foreign firms to invest yuan they have accumulated overseas in mainland China's securities market. It also kicked off trading of the yuan versus the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar in the mainland market. In recent weeks, Chinese officials have started to allow more mainland Chinese companies to sell yuan-denominated bonds offshore and doubled the size of a currency-swap deal with Hong Kong so that foreign banks could supply more yuan to their customers.

Officials have also indicated their intention to make it easier for capital to flow in and out the mainland. 'To boost the use of yuan offshore, we'll continue accelerating the opening up of the domestic bond market by allowing more overseas entities to invest in it and expanding the volume of domestic entities' bond issuance offshore,' Xie Duo, director general of financial markets at the People's Bank of China, said at a global debt forum on Wednesday.

The moves have come after Beijing officials informally surveyed banks about the reasons behind the slowdown, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials from China's central bank met with senior Hong Kong banking executives earlier this month while in the Chinese city to attend a ceremony cementing Bank of China Ltd.'s (601988.SH, 3988.HK) status as its sole yuan-clearing bank, they said.

'They were trying to understand why growth in renminbi deposits in Hong Kong has slowed,' one of those people said. 'They expressed concerns.'

The yuan faces big obstacles before it becomes a more relevant international currency and a store of value on par with the dollar, euro and yen. Chief among them, the currency would have to be fully convertible. That, however, would require China to allow capital to move freely across its borders--something it has been reluctant to do for fear of losing control of its developing financial system and an economy heavily dependent on exports.

The most significant measure China has taken so far is allowing cross-border trade to be invoiced and paid in its currency. Yuan-settled trade now accounts for about 10% of China's total trade, compared to less than 1% a year ago.

But deposit growth has slowed as the flow of trade has weakened due to the uncertain state of the global economy. As trade has slowed, companies doing business across the border have tended to pile up fewer yuan as payments.

Yuan-based trade saw its first quarterly decline in the third quarter, slipping to 583 billion yuan ($91.3 billion) from 597 billion yuan in the second quarter, according to the PBOC. Meanhile, yuan deposits in Hong Kong increased 2.2% in September from a month earlier to total 622 billion yuan, down from 6.4% growth in August, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city's de facto central bank. Many analysts are now expecting even slower growth in October; investors no longer view the currency as a one-way bet, so they may cut their holdings.

'To some extent the market is at a crossroads,' says Patrick Perret-Green, Singapore-based head of Asian currency and rates strategy at Citigroup Inc. 'But it is still so small that it can grow a lot more before it runs into any real difficulties.'

Until recently, the majority of yuan trade had been by Chinese companies paying foreign suppliers in yuan. But in recent weeks, because the yuan has dropped in value in the offshore market, trading at a discount to its mainland counterpart, more Chinese exporters are willing to take payment in yuan, according to banking executives.

HKMA Chief Executive Norman Chan said on Wednesday that Hong Kong saw a net outflow of 19.5 billion yuan via cross-border trade in September, as yuan payments into China exceeded those into the territory.

In the near term, Beijing's new push for wider use of yuan abroad could help the offshore market continue to grow, the result of increased trade and investment flows and bond sales.

The market for yuan bonds, known as dim sum bonds, has tripled in size this year, to about 210 billion yuan of debt outstanding, according to HSBC. But growth in new bond sales is likely to slow next year as investors dial down their expectations for yuan appreciation, said Michael Lam, director of Asia debt capital markets at Deutsche Bank AG. 'Earlier this year, people were expecting yuan deposits to reach one trillion yuan by the end of this year,' he said, 'Now this is obviously looking like a very tough target,' he said.

Baosteel Group Corp., a state-owned steelmaker based in Shanghai, on Thursday became the first mainland Chinese company outside the financial sector to sell dim sum bonds. The company sold 3.6 billion yuan of the bonds for yields ranging from 3.125% to 4.375%.

China also is moving to lessen the red tape issuers of dim-sum bonds, especially foreign companies, face in bringing money back to the mainland.

'Multinational corporations would likely find it more predictable now than before whether they can send the proceeds back,' said Augusto King, co-head of debt capital markets in Asia for Royal Bank of Scotland.

Lingling Wei / Fiona Law