柏林孽恋 未删减视频:投行分析师：“买入”中国公司股票

2011年 11月 28日 10:08 投行分析师：“买入”中国公司股票
评论(8) 出于对中国经济增速放缓以及会计欺诈和公司治理等问题的担心，投资者已对很多中国公司股票失去兴趣。但对投资机构的分析师来说，中国公司股票仍是热门股。

供职于世界各地投行的分析师把自己关注的几乎全部中国股都给出了“买入”评级，这种集体看涨的乐观情绪不禁让人想到上世纪90年代的科技股泡沫。尽管通常而言，这些分析师都属于看涨人群，但相比世界其它国家和地区的公司，他们对中资银行、中国科技公司和零售企业的看法要乐观得多。

据独立研究机构Forensic Asia Ltd.汇编的数据显示，分析师对中国股“买入”和“卖出”建议之比是19.2比1，对美国股是10.5比1，对亚太其它地方的股票是7.3比1

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专题：中国概念股独立研究机构Forensic Asia创始人兼董事总经理、经纪公司里昂证券(CLSA)前分析师塔洛克(Gillem Tulloch)说，对于卖方机构来说，它们面临着要相信“中国永不倒”神话的巨大压力。现在及以前的卖方分析师称，看涨中国股的其它原因包括，了解这些公司及其高管的有了更好的渠道，以及有意从这些公司得到投行和交易业务等。塔洛克称，一般来说，Forensic Asia给出的“卖出”评级稍稍多于“买入”评级。该公司不做任何企业融资或投资业务。

根据分析师的看涨建议进行相应操作的投资者今年的业绩并不怎么样。上海证券综合指数今年累计下跌了15%，香港恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)下跌了23%。中国公司股票的成交量占香港股市总成交量的三分之二。

抛售中国股的现象之所以会出现，是因为部分评级机构、对冲基金和做空者对一些中国公司的企业治理和会计做法产生了质疑。

上周一，空头机构Muddy Waters Research LLC对中国广告公司分众传媒控股有限公司(Focus Media Holding Ltd.)的指控让后者在美国纳斯达克市场(Nasdaq Stock Market)上的股票暴跌了39%。尽管如此，分析师仍对分众传媒的股票给出了11个“买入”评级，没有“卖出”。有一个空头押注该公司股票价格将下跌。分众传媒反驳了Muddy Waters的指控，说后者的报告歪曲了自己液晶广告屏数量和财务数据。截至上周收盘，分众传媒的股票收复了约14%的失地。

此外，针对嘉汉林业国际有限公司(Sino-Forest Corp.)的质疑也一直存在。一个特别董事委员会本月称，未发现该公司有任何欺诈行为，这是对Muddy Waters今年发布的一份报告的回应。这份报告说，嘉汉林业夸大了林木资产估值。

一位供职于某大型银行、关注亚洲股的分析师说，以他的经验来看，若分析师怀疑某公司存在不当行为，他们会取消对该公司的关注，而不会发布负面报告。

这位分析师说，你能做的至多就是暗示某些交易值得质疑，看我们报告的客户明白其中的微妙之处。

对股票过于看好的分析师和利益冲突一直是证券行业存在的一个问题。本世纪初美国科技股泡沫破裂后，华尔街的几家大型证券公司同意支付14亿美元就政府的指控达成和解；政府指控他们发布过于乐观的投资报告以便获得公司客户的好感，赢得投行业务。和解还包括这样一项条款，即证券公司必须建立一道防火墙，将分析师与投行业务隔离开来。在最严重的时候，分析师给出的买进评级股票只数是卖出评级股票只数的100倍。

今年香港证监会前主席韦奕礼(Martin Wheatley)在离任前一天接受采访时，对投资者热捧中资企业股的行为提出了警告，他称中国是投资世界的“互联网泡沫”。

正如科技股泡沫一样，看好中资银行的理由是该行业的增长。

前高盛(Goldman Sachs Group)高管、现运营着两家独立研究公司的莱格特(Richard Leggett)说，多年来，由于亚洲地区的高增长率，对亚洲公司的基本面一直存在“不在乎”的态度。

近年来，中国大型国有银行的上市属首次公开募股(IPO)世界中规模最大的之列。不过，由于投资者担心其帐面上存在坏帐，这类银行最近的股票表现一直较疲弱。今年以来，中国四大银行在香港上市股票价格平均跌了29%，然而分析师却坚定不移地看好这些银行的股票。

据财经信息提供商FactSet Research Systems Inc.的数据，工商银行有24个买进评级，只有一个卖出评级。2007年9月，在银行股接近见顶之际，工商银行也只有一个卖出评级。据FactSet的数据，建设银行有25个买进评级和一个卖出评级。2007年，建设银行有17个买进评级，没有卖出评级。按市值计算，工商银行是世界上最大的银行。

据研究公司Forensic Asia的数据，韩国是唯一一个分析师对其股票看法与对中国股票看法一样乐观的市场。韩国的买进评级股票只数是卖出评级股票只数的22.7倍。数名分析师说，一些韩国公司向分析师施压，迫使他们给出正面评级。

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities Co.)银行业分析师安托斯(James Antos)是为数不多不看好中资银行的人之一。他对所分析的九家中资银行中的六家给出了卖出评级，没有一家给出买进评级。安托斯曾在安永(Ernst & Young)担任审计师，自上世纪80年代以来，他一直分析银行股。他认为很多分析师看好中资银行是因为他们对亚洲缺乏经验。

他说，在欧洲，一些人从事银行业分析已经有20年；欧洲人对银行业有着深刻的理解，美国分析师也有一定的经验，而亚洲则没有。他说，在你开始建议人们在熊市买进银行股之前，要是至少经历过一个经济周期，是不会有坏处的。

2011年 11月 28日 10:08 Chinese Stocks Still Look Like A 'Buy' To Analysts

Investors have soured on many Chinese companies on fears of a slowing economy and worries about accounting fraud and corporate governance. But for analysts at investment firms, the stocks remain a hot ticket.

In bullishness reminiscent of the technology bubble of the 1990s, analysts who work for investment banks based around the world rate nearly every Chinese stock they cover as a 'buy.' While these analysts generally are a bullish lot, they are far more positive on Chinese banks, tech companies, retailers and the like than they are on companies based elsewhere.

According to data compiled by independent research firm Forensic Asia Ltd., analysts have 19.2 'buy' recommendations on Chinese stocks for every one 'sell' recommendation. For stocks of companies based in the U.S., the ratio is 10.5, and for the rest of the Asian-Pacific region it is 7.3.

'At sell-side firms, there is overwhelming pressure to believe in the 'China cannot fail' story,' said Gillem Tulloch, Forensic Asia's founder and managing director and a former analyst at brokerage firm CLSA. Current and former sell-side analysts said other reasons for bullishness include obtaining better access to companies and their executives and a desire to get investment-banking and trading business from companies. Forensic Asia, which doesn't do any corporate-finance business or investing, issues slightly more 'sell' than 'buy' ratings in general, Mr. Tulloch said.

Investors who followed analysts' bullish recommendations haven't fared well this year. The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 15%, and in Hong Kong, where Chinese companies account for two-thirds of the trading volume, the Hang Seng Index has fallen 23%.

The selloff in Chinese shares has come amid questions from some ratings firms, hedge funds and short sellers about corporate governance and accounting at some companies.

Last Monday, claims by short-seller Muddy Waters Research LLC against Chinese advertising company Focus Media Holding Ltd. sent the company's shares down 39% on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Analysts still have 11 buy ratings and no sell ratings on the stock. A short seller bets that a stock price will fall. Focus Media disputed Muddy Waters's claims, saying the short seller's report misinterpreted LCD-display numbers and financial data. The shares gained back about 14% by the end of the week.

Questions also have swirled around Sino-Forest Corp. This month, a special board committee said it found no fraud at the company in response to a Muddy Waters report this year that said the forestry firm misrepresented the value of its timber holdings.

An analyst who covers Asian stocks for a major bank said that, in his experience, when analysts suspect wrongdoing at a company they will drop coverage rather than issue a negative report.

'The best you can do is to suggest certain dealings are 'questionable.' Readers of our reports understand these subtleties,' the analyst said.

Overly bullish analysts and conflicts of interest have been a problem in the securities industry. In the wake of the tech-stock bubble in the U.S. early last decade, Wall Street's largest securities firms agreed to pay $1.4 billion to settle government charges they issued overly optimistic investment research to curry favor with corporate clients and win investment-banking business. The settlement also included a provision that securities firms erect a firewall separating analysts from investment-banking operations. At the height, analysts' buy ratings outnumbered sell ratings by 100 to 1.

In an interview on his last day in office as Hong Kong's securities regulator this year, Martin Wheatley warned about the craze for shares of Chinese companies, calling China 'the new dot-com' of the investment world.

As with the tech bubble, the rationale behind the bullishness is growth.

'For years there has been a 'who cares' attitude toward Asian company fundamentals due to high growth rates in the region,' said Richard Leggett, a former Goldman Sachs Group executive who has run two independent research firms.

China's big state-controlled banks were among the largest initial public offerings in the world when they listed in recent years, but their recent stock performance has been weak, as investors worry that they are carrying bad debts on their books. On average, the big-four Chinese banks are down 29% this year in Hong Kong trading, yet analysts have remained steadfastly bullish.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world's largest lender by market value, has 24 buy ratings and only one sell, according to FactSet Research Systems Inc. In September 2007, as banking stocks were approaching peaks, there also was only one sell rating on the lender. China Construction Bank Corp. has 25 buy ratings and one sell, according to FactSet. In 2007, there were 17 buy ratings and no sell ratings.

South Korea, where the ratio of buy to sell ratings is 22.7, is the only market where analysts are as bullish as they are in China, according to Forensic Asia. Several analysts said some Korean companies put pressure on analysts to produce positive ratings.

James Antos, a banking analyst for Mizuho Securities Co., is one of the few bears on Chinese banks, with sell ratings on six of the nine Chinese lenders he covers and no buy ratings. Mr. Antos, a former Ernst & Young auditor who has been following banks since the 1980s, blamed the bullishness on the inexperience of many analysts in Asia.

'In Europe, some guys have been covering banks for 20 years. There's a depth of understanding among Europeans and to some extent U.S. analysts that's just not here in Asia,' he said. 'It wouldn't be a bad thing to have at least lived through one economic cycle before you start telling people to buy bank stocks in a bear market.'

KATE O'KEEFFE