双面君王哪里可以看:日内交易高手Harvey Walsh 交易哲学文章及翻译（ZZ） - 美股学习提高 - 司...

在论坛里看到一些关于Harvey Walsh交易视频的链接，实在是高手，几乎都是在一两个小时内赚上几千dollers，交易成功率很高，让人佩服。
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      看过之后，我找到他的BLOG，发了邮件给他，回信中得到一篇文章，是关于他的交易哲学和交易方法的。可惜全是英文的，一时冲动，决定自己翻译了……可怜我四级水平的英语……" J  @$ f1 K! j; w: E! r2 g2 ?" N5 P
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      既然都翻了，自己看就浪费了，和大家分享吧。但是水平有限，翻译的不好还请见谅。' 翻译一部分就发一部分吧，除了做交易外时间也不多，还得睡觉。连载发布，有想法的还请耐心，我会尽快。) a, ^6 o+ [  p5 \) [9 `6 Y, I0 l1 h$ b6 F
4 [# F2 b4 ~" @+ r1 d9 R/ o0 J* g$ uIn this report, I want to share with you my simple tried-and-tested-plan for making money by day trading.
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' C! R$ G# |7 l) B: R1 V+ H6 l% y/ a在这篇文章里，我要和大家分享一个通过日内交易赚钱的简单的通过检测的交易计划。$ \' _1 m( z. |& K4 r" A$ G  b+ W9 Z/ `8 f/ m
$ ^, d* @' v8 N7 U6 G; \There are lots of training programs, forums, chat rooms, and general information (and mis-information) out there on the internet about this subject, and my aim is to cut through the fluff and tell you what works for me$ ^; t, L" e2 e/ v) P* O
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在互联网上，有很多关于这个题目的训练计划、论坛、聊天室和一些概要（其中包括错误的信息）。而我的目的是通过这个从未成功过的方式来告诉你什么对我有用。
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7 @: z/ F. F5 {# C' hI’m quite a lazy person, and I’m not particularly clever. If I can make more than a full time salary by trading just a few hours a week (and I do), then I’m certain anyone can do the same.6 Y, @* U; |7 g( j5 s! S2 I
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我是一个散漫的人，而且特别笨。如果我能一周用几个小时时间工作，比一个全职的交易员赚的钱还要多的话（而且我确实做到了），那么我相信任何人都可以做的到。
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6 Z8 q4 _0 ^- `5 GOf course it’s quite likely you may never have heard of me before, so how do you know I really make any money at all? That’s a fair question, and it’s one of the reasons I started posting videos of live trading on my website. If you haven’t seen them, there’s a link to my site at the bottom of the page.% D3 j% e  E8 k2 g4 Y5 x2 J) X# A. y. p7 v' ~当然，你很可能以前从未听说过我，所以你怎么能够完全相信我真的赚到钱了呢?这是一个普遍的问题，这也是我开始在我的网页上上传我的真实交易视频的原因之一。如果你还没有看过，在本页底有到我网页的链接4 H3 y' L( o: y# Q! D
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The videos aren’t about bragging at how much money I can make in an hour or two, they’re about showing you how simple and relaxed it can be if done right, and hopefully they’ll give you the motivation to give it a go yourself. As I’ll explain later - you can try out trading with zero risk, so why not have a go?
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这些视频意不在于吹嘘我能在一个小时内赚多少钱，而是为了告诉你，如果方法正确，这是多么简单而且轻松，而且有望它能给你个自己尝试一把的动机。正如我将要说明的——你能实现低风险交易，何乐而不为呢？
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! l5 A: z2 H9 tDay trading changed my life, and it can change yours too.
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4 {# R5 p: \6 k! r% Z/ CBefore I was a day trader, I had a full time job, like most folks. But working for “the man”, making someone else rich, wasn’t my idea of how things should be. I wanted to be free of the daily grind, free to work where I wanted, and when I wanted." _" K- P3 a8 f" _$ O6 f( C! E2 g9 h8 \9 Y6 n9 j日内交易改变了我的生活，也能改变你的。在我做日内交易员之前，我和大家一样，有一份全职工作。但是为其他人工作，为其他人赚钱，不是我想要的。我想从日常工作中解脱出来，可以在我想要的地点和时间自由工作。2 _2 e! A( X+ v  ]
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When I found out about day trading, I knew I had found the answer to my prayers. Here was a way I could work from anywhere, do fewer hours, and potentially still make more money than doing a 45+ hour week! What could possibly go wrong?
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当我发现日内交易的时候，我知道我找到了我梦寐以求的答案。这种方式能让我在任何地方工作，不用几个小时，而且可能比我每周工作45小时以上还要赚钱。还能有什么差错呢？  R3 U6 L* r; M* j5 ^# P0 `
8 ]$ q: G* I, p) }, h, z2 x% o7 K- xWell as it turns out - quite a lot!8 }! f' s4 a- a/ L9 c3 i: x9 @  Z& E$ n- hMy first trading experiences did not go well. You see, I jumped in with both feet, without really thinking about what I was doing, or learning what I should be doing. I quit the day job, and started trading index futures (don’t worry if you don’t know what they are, that’s not going to be important to get the most from this report).6 x0 A6 R1 U/ C/ z
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% S  T5 }4 L) v$ T" H而且事实证明——很多！我的第一次交易经验做的不好。如你所见，我一头扎了进去，没有认真想过，我在做什么，或学习我应该做什么。我辞职了，然后开始做指数期货（如果你不知道这是什么，不用担心，这不会影响你理解这篇文章）。$ _# U& V* ]1 y  Y
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Needless to say, my lack of research and preparation meant I lost a  lot of money very quickly. In the interests of keeping this introduction quick and getting tothe meaty stuff, to cut a long story short - I spent the next fewyears learning masses of new trading techniques and methods,
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stumbling from one to the next. I probably would have quit if it were not for the fact that sometimes I would make money – and lots of it. But just when I’d think I’d finally got it cracked, I’d lose everything I’d made, and oftentimes more besides.4 s: _: I; ]- D7 R" C1 H1 c% x5 N/ s; R4 u. g& s不必说，由于我的研究准备不足让我很快亏了很多。为了让这说明尽快说到重点，长话短说——我用接下来的几年时间学习了大量新的交易技术和方法，一个接一个的失效。如果不是因为时不时我还能赚点钱，而且为数不小，我可能已经放弃了。但是每当我想钱想疯了，我就会失去所有我得到的东西，而且时常是超出这些.: L' x+ z+ M2 O/ f! m6 E* k, V* VEventually I hit crisis point and I had to choose: Learn to trade properly, or go back to working for the man. There was no choice to make really, was there?  `$ s2 Z, @9 G* l
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终于我到了危急时刻了，我不得不做出选择：找到正确的交易方法，或者回去为别人工作。真的没有其他的选择了，不是么?, z! n0 _1 j4 [, A+ E4 ]/ e& }
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I picked myself up one last time, and decided to start from scratch, so I found myself some mentors and learned what really works when it comes to trading.
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最后时刻我振作起来，决定从头开始，所以我为自己找到一些有经验的交易员，研究当他们交易时什么在真正的起作用。 * E/ Z* J/ F/ x) F( n$ I4 t
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How To Trade Profitably? - S9 P& O( d5 {+ M* g' q9 }2 w
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如何进行有利的交易
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+ F8 k! x6 C$ Q. w1 v; JIn this report I want to share with you what it took me so long tofind out from my own mentors. If you already have some trading experience, some of this report might at first glance, sound a little basic. But don’t underestimate basic - one of the fundamental truths of trading profitably is that simple works best.; E/ p2 W2 V8 a0 m3 D: R, K0 H: X6 i7 B6 A7 F. |- j2 i1 X在这篇文章中，我想要和你分享花了我这么长时间从我的顾问那里发现的东西。如果你已经有一些交易经验，这篇文章的一些内容可能乍看起来有些基础。但是不要轻视基础——有利交易的最基本事实之一就是简单做到最好
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8 n$ u$ c: r) y  g! s0 sBefore we go any further, let’s get one thing out in the open and quite clear：There is no magic formula for trading. There is no “system” that wins every time. One of my many mistakes in the early years was believing there was such a system. It’s a common mistake, I call it the grail-hunt syndrome (if you’re subscribed to my free newsletter, I’ll send you D0 L9 Ean article about that).  aSo now that’s out of the way, how do you ptrade profitably?
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% ^" v) L( H# H1 l9 ^在我们进一步讲解以前，让我们摆出一个事实，非常明显：对于交易没有什么魔法般的方程式。也没有一个交易系统能够每次都赢。在我的早些年犯的许多错误之一就是相信有这样一个系统。这是一个普遍的错误，我称之为圣杯追寻综合症（如果你订阅我的免费简讯，我会发给你一篇关于这个问题的文章）。那么现在跳出这个方法，你会怎样进行有利交易' N9 S7 x8 S* \: }2 b6 S. [1 `) I
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There are two ways, and this is probably going to sound really obvious, but the first way is:
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' ]6 G% ^4 I" }/ X# }- I' l  b1. To win more trades than you lose. I told you it would sound obvious, but it’s amazing how many people think you have to win every trade
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The second way:
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2. Win bigger than you lose. That’s a little less obvious, because in some ways it contradicts the/ G' b9 g. G" J+ U: Z$ D% h/ S/ a* Gfirst way.3 e6 K7 n/ t! T: I2 n. A5 h: a1 X) l3 w" V, W1 y" y0 S5 ^: E( C) M有两个方法，这听起来可能真的太显而易见了。 & l1 ~* C) G+ l3 q* Z" n# n: |
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1.
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- O- B" [$ i! I5 ^赚钱的交易比赔钱的交易多。我告诉过你它听起来太显而易见，但是令人惊奇的是有多少人认为你必须赢得每一笔交易！
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3 a: H0 {. K& A2. 赚的要比你赔的多。这条有点不太明显，因为在某些方面它在反驳第一条& z" L5 o1 K4 b- X) d
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Let’s take a look at some examples, which will make this clearer.+ ?: ?" a# b6 k: N6 Q3 W. n! h! B% E5 Q& v! J# ?# `$ a3 f让我们看一些例子，解释一下这两条。+ Z9 z. w6 b' N' K' U; J! |. q4 ~# ~% g- ]; hExample 1 - Winning More Times Than You Lose.Let’s say you make 10 trades. Of those, 8 are winners, and you win$100 on each of those winning trades, so $800 in all. The other 2are losers, and you lose $100 on each of those two trades, so $2006 z* b. F7 H  M: y3 h! G- `4 c- y2 p0 ]- stotal.6 Z3 p& w6 r( K: L" z. z* x
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Your net result at the end of these 10 trades is:
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( W+ O0 k! P" l) [% }4 E6 ]) `$ iWins = $800"
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/ A. f) I  ^5 t( L2 t3 }" \, }Losses = $200
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Result = $800 - $200 = $6007 D+ u$ B9 ]+ q; T% |2 e
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So you make $600 overall.
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www.DayTradingFreedom.com
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So far so good. Now let’s look at...! W0 f6 c/ x0 m' m( x3 [) K1 h" t1 L" r7 mExample 2 - Winning Bigger Than You Lose/ e: D4 Z3 f) H. |- ?
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Again, let’s imagine you make 10 trades. This time, 8 of those
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- ^$ Q3 y: @6 c  [trades lose you money. You lose $10 on each trade, so you lose $80
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in all. The other two trades are winners, and each one wins you& C6 U; w7 R' a
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$100, so you win $200 on those. Your net result this time is:
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2 l! Y$ e4 I. g- f' ?- rWins = $200
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8 U5 @. M* x% j  T" QLosses = $80
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% e1 P4 \1 n/ D/ |7 tResult = $200 - $80 = $120,
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So we see that even though we lost four times as many trades as. l7 p+ J: a# `
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we won, we still made money!8 ?: u7 b( p' x5 ?& _" u
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Let’s put that another way, because this is a really really important
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/ C5 E  H' J; o' Y' d8 K6 zpoint:Even though in this example, we lost 80% of the trades we made,8 h8 G( R' W) L7 a& \' M9 y9 \$ b- K8 ?
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we still made a profit.
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让我们得出有一条方法，这是真的真的很重要的一点：在这个例子中，即使我们80%的交易都是赔钱的，但我们仍然做到总体获利。
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As we can see then, we don’t necessarily have to win more times.
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than we lose, as long as we win bigger than we lose. Imagine if you could win more times, and bigger each time as" O/ S* h& X, A( V: k9 p! s5 b+ j( m0 E7 j( G* Qwell.....
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' `/ B# L7 x4 p2 Y/ T  D9 B# s# xIf you could win 80% of your trades, and all those winners were6 I' ]8 s$ \+ I$ s* K+ P" s3 t- N( o8 B8 E/ X% p  x* Vbigger than the 20% of losers, then you’d be making some serious
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8 B+ m# P8 ^+ @% }money! This is how I trade now. Bigger winning trades, more often.,
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正如你所见，我们不需要必须赚钱比赔钱的次数多，只要我们我们的赢利时比亏损时赚得更多的钱。想象一下，如果我们能赢利的交易次数更多，而且每次都赢得比赔的多……如果你能在你的交易中盈利率达到80%，而且所有盈利交易都比那亏损的20%中的交易要多，那么你要赚多少钱啊！这就是我现在的交易方法，赚的比赔的大，经常次数还要多。
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  www.DayTradingFreedom.com
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Anyone who’s seen my free trading videos knows that I make more) Z1 z: H' |' h
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money trading about 2 hours a day than many people take home in
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a month. For me, this is what it’s all about. Being able to generate that kind of income in such a short space of time means genuine freedom:) m' w' |, @: b
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看过我的交易视频的人知道，我2个小时交易赚得钱比许多人一个月带回家的钱还要多。对于我来说，这是所有的一切。能够在这么短的时间内创造这样的收入意味着真正的自由。
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The freedom to work only the days I want to work.* q% N' A5 @4 Q# x# F' O* Z
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自由的工作在我想要工作的时候
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7 k3 I% u  Y9 H3 J, B9 [" k$ n4 HThe freedom to work from anywhere in the world
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/ f% }+ e3 w$ {自由的工作在世界任何地方
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The freedom to travel.!
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自由的去旅行;
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( p$ }/ \9 c5 w% ^2 g- u0 V  bThe freedom to buy what I want.
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# x4 y% i$ d( T自由的去买我想要的东西
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The freedom to spend time doing what I enjoy doing, instead of working.& 8 G: Q; f0 _# J' k* G5 E. B
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自由的花时间做我想做的事情，替代工作& v* W4 e6 a2 d+ a# ~! {6 P, C2 X2 v. x9 lWhat would that kind of freedom mean to you?; q/ `/ K9 a  a+ r; f  s9 R/ X
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Ok, enough imagining - let’s get down to it and examine how to get: t' U; Q! `; r+ v, o+ H' {4 B$ k
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bigger winning trades, more often.6 C6 F4 N7 \' u- H9 I& u$ Q) \8 y+ o, V7 s" s: o- z  y这种自由对于你意味着什么？
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0 e4 q9 C+ K7 F. B. ~+ L% K好的，无尽的想象——让我们开始认真的处理这个问题，看看如何做到赚的比赔的大，经常还要多。 / \" d& {7 r4 c  M2 e* |8 \4 _' Y0 p, ~! W1 Z
0 Q8 c7 O: m/ H4 N2 s% vThe Trading Triangle
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交易三角形
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# y2 d' d! V4 H$ KThere are really only three things you need to know in order to% L. n- N3 l# q" [7 F
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make money consistently. I call these the three corners of the1 K. ^5 s- u6 Y' z9 Q
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Trading Triangle. If you get all three right, the triangle is complete. Z' A; i/ ^% {
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and you’ll make money, day in, day out./ U6 u1 ]; f2 f, y, _! h1 v& O9 r5 E8 L  H为了持续赢利仅有三件事你需要知道。我称这三件事为交易三角形的三个角。如果你做到这三件事，这个三角形就完整了，那么你也将会家里家外的赚钱。: |7 C  A! N5 W0 C# f1 a5 C0 l6 a, r* }3 hThe three corners are:
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1. Deciding what you are going to trade today (hint: You want to( g. }/ g2 P9 u8 V  A0 }
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pick only the easiest trades, why make life difficult?)
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- u( [6 i* a) v% A$ y8 v  ]5 O2. When to enter your trade (in other words, when to buy or sell)# F4 f6 e* _, k0 z* r- r
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3. When to exit your trade
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. c* X: s+ `& U- i$ n这三个角是：7 _3 y! l  q0 t9 a5 e3 h1 \: o& F5 K% N决定今天你将要交易什么（建议：你最好挑选最容易的交易，为什么使生活变得困难呢？）. l$ U+ k. h' T8 _' ?
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2.
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) S$ Z+ ]; e4 t  `! V5 N6 t' t什么时候参与交易（换句话说，什么时候买卖）8 t5 c: S. l" v( o/ z# u
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3.
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8 Y, x/ Y% I; m6 _什么时候退出交易5 k$ G& Q' @4 ]  r
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Most folks who teach trading, put all their effort into number 2 - when to enter. They go into elaborate and usually highly overcomplicated systems for picking the right point to buy or sell.
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大本分指导交易的人，把他们所有的努力都放在第二条——何时进场。他们为了选择买卖的适合点，而着力于那些复杂的，并且经常是过于复杂的系统。
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3 v2 V( F# Z0 b$ c9 eOften these systems involve complex charts with many squiggly indicators - so many in fact that you probably need a diploma in statistics to understand what’s going on. Needless to say, being lazy and not very$ E. U, P1 B; F+ m; g  U
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clever, I don’t do that, more on that later...5 m6 }3 {& t8 \- ^: }1 }2 C
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通常，这些系统涉及到复杂的，带着许多复杂指标的图表——事实上多到需要你有足够的专业统计知识来弄清正在进行的是什么。不用说，对于这么懒，而且又不聪明的我，并没有做那些。0 ~4 u. i9 K( o1 `1 L& x+ p5 ]$ U* m, z% N- v3 Z0 p! X$ U9 yBut the other two corners of the triangle are equally important. In fact, I believe the first corner - choosing what to trade today - is the most important of all, because if you get that right, the other two become much easier.
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但是三角形的其他两个角是同样重要的，但是我认为第一个角是最重要的——选择今天的交易对象。因为一旦你选对了，另外两个就简单了。
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Let’s take a look at each of these corners in more detail.
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) W* o" `+ S# d0 v4 N- w让我们从更多的细节来看这些角。
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1.What To Trade
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交易对象
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9 C$ t: L& n, m$ aOn any given day, there are going to be easy trades and difficult trades. Easy trades are those where we have everything going inour favor - a nice simple chart going smoothly in one direction -like the first of the two charts below. The kind of trade where evenif you don’t get it quite right, you’ll probably still end up makingmoney anyway. A bit like how it was in the “dot com boom”, whenyou could seemingly buy almost anything and it would go up andmake you a profit.; * E$ |. B0 G" I- K" l" O' `% I在任何既定的一天，都将有简单和困难的交易。简单的交易按照我们意愿来进行——一个简单的表格，有一个平滑的走向——如下面两个图表中的第一个。这种交易，即使你做的不是很好，依然可以赚钱。有点像“dot com boom”，当你看起来在任何位置买，它都会上涨，然后你赚钱。
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6 |% U; f& t2 y+ \, S, IEasy vs. Hard Trade 简单VS困难交易: 6 d3 I" j( x" S8 O
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Obviously we greatly increase our chances of making bigger winning trades, more often, if we go for# [. `$ R/ B/ \  o. B5 F& F+ z
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L- pthe easy trades. The good news is, there are easy trades just like
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. @+ D+ ?% \# o7 ethose “dot com boom” days, every day., I" H, `+ ^* o* C" a8 C/ A# w
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很明显，如果我们争取简单交易，将大大提高我们赚大钱的几率。好消息就是，简单交易就像那些“dot com boom”日，每天都有。1 h$ j; ?/ _/ ~  g) z3 y: J. Y3 k& y( a+ e& F# Y! R; m$ YI trade stocks, specifically, US stocks traded on the New York Stock
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1 b" q2 K4 P3 xExchange (NYSE), and the Nasdaq. I know lots of people trade futures or forex, and that’s fine. But there’s a very good reason that I trade stocks - there are thousands of them to choose from. 6 M/ m2 c9 s! O9 W' {
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我交易股票，特别是，美国股票NYSE和NASDAQ。我知道很多人交易期货，那也不错。但是我交易股票有一个很好的理由——股票有数千只可以选择。" [5 r" M( q/ e4 d* E7 {0 E1 r6 d5 i  x1 B9 {" K9 ?I’ll explain why that’s a good thing:
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! g/ n- |6 b9 @我解释一下我为什么这是一个好事：
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If you are a futures trader, you have maybe 5 or 6 different futures6 G2 ~+ Y' G" b; G8 r
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contracts you could be trading each day, but let’s be generous and
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! f4 {4 j, m: @) J# j7 H1 `say there are 10
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% V+ T6 ^: J5 Z  W如果你是期货交易员，每天你可能有5、6只不同的期货订单，往多了说能有10只。
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, o2 q+ M2 C* t, Y; K5 N& vIf you are a stock trader, you have at least 2000 stocks you could
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trade each day, and that’s being conservative. So think about this for a moment, if you wanted to make 4 trades in one day, and you only want to take the easy trades, do you think there is more chance of there being 4 easy trades in a pool of 10 futures, or in a pool of about 2000 stocks?# O9 t7 E6 T0 ^# H9 C. Q$ R  H; A
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8 @# v1 t1 K' G2 |1 @' x- o如果你是一位股票交易员，你每天至少有2000只股票，这是保守的说。那么想到这，如果你一天想要交易4只，而且你想要交易简单的股票，你认为是从10只期货中找的机会大呢，还是从2000只股票中选的机会大？. g6 Y: T9 q) b; ^. X8 V9 V( L6 F) nPut another way: From a selection of 10 available futures, you
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  y/ S1 V6 v0 M, lneed 40% of them to produce easy trades in order to get your quota0 y; ~, j3 P- w$ ~4 ^" f# b# l9 v' I# f; ]" Y! pof 4 easy trades for the day. From a selection of 2000 stocks, you only need 0.2% (zero point two percent!) of them to produce easy trades in order to get your quota of 4 easy trades for the day.
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. I8 E& ]  |5 V: jmathematician (I failed math in high school), but I can see that the odds are massively in my favor if I decide to trade stocks!: x5 T1 f0 T/ E' P  `! C1 J
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换句话：为了每天交易4只好做的股票，从10只期货中选需要从中选出40%。而从2000只股票中选，你只需0.2%！我不是数学教（我在高中数学就很糟），但是我也能看出选择交易股票对我来说机会要有多大啊！! 7 a5 R9 e6 N- R9 d3 [  i  O) P* x4 J. P8 r4 \Finding Stocks
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Ok so having decided stocks are going to give us the most number: [3 L6 I# A, B) v* ]
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of easy trades per day, this still leaves us with a problem - how do( M+ g: P9 P5 D/ q# J- B8 w3 y3 R3 I" F8 X/ hwe find those easy trades out of all those stocks? We sure don’t
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; C3 r+ \0 \  r% Rwant to be watching 2000 stocks all day, hoping we spot the good  - x0 m) N2 Q& v' O, Y( J  ]$ |: K' O$ gones. Fortunately there is an easy solution, and to understand that, let’s
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8 k$ g9 `( L/ k2 G& ?step back a second and take a moment to understand what makes
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stock prices move.. Z: f2 C1 z+ h" C3 m7 Y2 [( N搜寻股票5 L0 R' K" T. s- z( j( ]/ C) e# V' k很好，决定交易股票会使我们每天进行简单交易的概率最大。这也给我们留下了一个问题——怎样从这么多的股票中选出好做的股票呢？为了认出那些好股票，我们绝对不想成天盯着2000只股票。很幸运有一个简单的方法，为了弄明白它，让我们先退一步看看是什么使股票的价格发生变化。+ q0 i3 c  w3 D; D  s
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Stocks (also called shares, or equities) are shares in real companies, companies doing real business. When those companies do well, their stock prices go up, and when they don’t do so well, their stock prices drop. Actually there’s quite a bit more to it than that, but for now that’s enough to know what makes prices move.8 ^' O, x8 k1 c
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股票，是真实公司的股份，而公司也是进行实际的经营。当这些公司运营良好的时候，他们的股票价格上涨，而当他们经营的不是那么好的时候，他们的股票价格就下跌。实际上，远远不止这些，但是现在，这足够让我们了解是什么在推动价格变化。
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There are lots of reasons why a certain company might do well, or badly. Lets take an example - Apple - the folks that make the iPod and the Mac computer. If Apple announce that they’re releasing a brand new iPod that has every music track ever recorded already loaded onto it, and they’re going to sell it for $99, then it’s a pretty safe bet that they are going to sell a lot of them. Things would be looking good for Apple, and on the day they announce this wonder-iPod, there’s a pretty good chance their stock price would move. It would be an easy trade.
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6 S* W9 A; o0 C$ o为什么某个公司可以运营的很好，或不好，有很多的原因。让我们举个例子——苹果——生产ipod和Mac电脑的公司。如果苹果宣布，他们将发售一款全新的iPod，它能够将每一首下载过的歌曲记录下来，而且仅售$99，那么很明显，这种产品会畅销。事情对苹果有利了，而且在他们公布这个神奇的iPod产品的那天，他们的股票也很有可能会有变动。那将是一个简单交易。( D1 O  e- M( j4 y: G5 d1 N
9 f/ H9 O. W, x9 o2 z& R0 b* f3 r3 U8 b4 d' M7 y* K6 d# HThings probably wouldn’t be so rosy for the record companies though - nobody would have any reason to buy their records any more! So we could pretty safely assume that their stock prices would be badly affected by this news. Another easy trade!& q0 \" I7 D: X& f& _5 Q" A! ^8 x& R而对于唱片公司来说，就不是什么好事情了——没有人再有理由去买他们的产品。所以我们就可以很自信的说，他们的股票价格会被这消息影响。这是另外一个简单交易。1 Z7 @0 i  {" L5 u, J
8 h) ~# }8 u# A: H# V2 ]  C' z$ _& c) F, ?9 x& ~" h1 mOf course that’s one interpretation of this fictional iPod news. Another interpretation could be quite different. What if it turns out that in order for Apple to fill up the iPod with all these songs, they’ve done a deal with the record companies whereby they pay them $500 for every iPod sold? A loss-leader to get more people to buy iPods.9 a1 G* o- b: q
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当然，这只是对这种虚构的iPod信息的诠释。另外一种诠释会很不一样。如果苹果为了将所有的歌曲添加到这种iPod产品中，他们和唱片公司达成了一个协议，即每卖出一个iPod，将支付给他们500美元，事情又会怎么样呢？为招徕更多的人买iPod而进行的让利。
5 H. q# s. n8 V2 ^* k, A. {/ e+ D9 \4 ]/ C2 w3 V+ D7 |& |/ FThis could be much better news for the record companies, and bad short-term for Apple, who would take a massive financial hit for every player they sold.# r) i5 g) A8 @0 |' Z6 s( H
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这对于唱片公司来说是好得多的消息，而短期内，对iPod会有负面影响，因为iPod将为每名歌手承受巨大的经济负担。
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Clearly just seeing the news about a company isn’t going to tell us
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which way the stock price will go, there’s a level of interpretation as well. Actually there’s a very simply answer to this, but this report isn’t really the place to be discussing that.! C: n& ^) u" Q7 D) J8 }
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很明显的，只关注某个公司的新闻并不足以告诉我们，股票的价格将如何变动，也有诠释的方面。事实上对于新闻有很简单的解答，但是报道不是真正讨论它的地方。
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7 ^+ I+ v7 E3 H& s( tSo, to find easy trades each day, we need to know which stocks $ _* B  U& ?* B( X  w% v) J! E) E" V1 D3 Zgoing to be moved by news. Now before you start thinking you!# w8 q& w; k. G# k  d/ l% }/ E" c' b! s) b" r0 G; [need to read the Wall Street Journal or the FT from cover to cover
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every day, fear not - there are services on the internet that do this
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for you. They distill everything down to the essentials, and report
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it back to you. One of these services and how to use it to best, ?- b2 m5 s  ^* G8 v1 A- E& W: ~& R5 A5 b2 a) Q/ i8 wadvantage is covered in detail in Day Trading Freedom, but the. o4 j+ k7 e" X" H& d8 I1 q. y/ C# b8 O: {& @3 |" H# i' H1 ^main thing to know is that there are a few to choose from.
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% B2 o+ c" R- J所以，为了找到简单的股票，我们需要那只股票将会由于新闻而变动。在你开始想之前，每天需要从头到尾的去阅读华尔街日报或金融时报。否则——在互联网上也有这样的服务。他们从每一件事提炼出要点，然后将这些报道给你。这些服务中的一个和怎样用它达到最有利都包含在Day Trading Freedom，但是最该知道的是可以选出的很少。 % u, W( L% I% r7 V2 h
4 w& X+ L/ K8 w/ }! c& T- g7 \8 m% v/ U2. When To Enter The Trade 何时进场& e8 `0 Q1 B' q8 G0 U0 y. r& c% z( c
  X- D+ ]% S. b! }2 U$ Q' _! f& |* u5 Z1 _! YHaving chosen a short list of stocks that are highly likely to give easy trades, most of the hard work is done. The next step is to sit back and watch them, and decide when (and if) to trade them.
3 q: Y. j5 x7 I; n2 k- e2 J. \* d7 Z. a" k4 y5 |1 a% k6 u5 k8 l  e7 h, d已经选好了一些看上去应该是简单交易的股票，那么大部分困难的工作就完成了。下一步就是做好，观察它们，并且决定什么时候（是否）进行交易。
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" t8 B& _' q8 C# Q0 j% c& }Because the stocks we’re watching are already highly likely to move predictably, we already have the odds stacked in our favor, so we’ve already partly taken care of the “more often” part of our objective (bigger winning trades, more often). Now we want to concentrate on the winning bigger bit, by getting into the trade at the best time.
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3 l+ u. J' @! x8 X因为我们一直关注的股票有很大的可能按我们的预见移动，我们会有使我们欢心的机会，所以我们已经不完全关心我们目标中“赢的次数多”的部分（赢利更大，次数更多）。现在我们想要将精力集中在赢利更大上，依靠最好的进场点。
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This part of the trading day is where it can, in all honesty, get a bit
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' b2 b) v, U, M8 i Oboring. You’ve got a list of stocks to watch, and now your job as a. I) K9 Q+ i. R. o! l  H2 A' @5 W
/ J2 J" N& W$ b8 J. g$ Y6 P! ]- ttrader is to keep an eye on them all, waiting for them to set up5 s* s! `$ f' M, _" f, v( o4 ^+ H- s, L/ y6 G" _6 u& }, B9 h4 i5 S( H/ Z
into a trade entry. At this point, many traders will be sitting in front or 2 or 3 trading screens (or more), with loads of complicated charts all over them. I don’t do this, and I don’t suggest you do either.
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/ V* E$ x6 \% i) g. r; y交易中寻找入场点，老实说，是有点枯燥乏味的。你按照股票清单去观察，那么作为交易员你的工作就是一直盯着它们，等待他们触发一个入场点。在这点上，许多交易员会在面前摆放两三个显示器（甚至更多），研究大量的复杂的图形。我不这么做，而且我也不建议你这么做。
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www.DayTradingFreedom.com
! w7 |/ m3 H, E% a; X9 B' I6 q9 Y- A. M, ^5 A5 T3 T% Y* Z  x% @+ _6 x! bRemember earlier I said keeping things simple is key to success?0 V3 ]  f# b3 O# r  J4 _3 M) H# E& a) F. I9 F/ S
Well lots of charts on lots of screens is certainly not my idea of- f3 ?2 _3 p7 W; d/ H2 G' d8 q# J. Y9 t. W, a7 _( q$ d* O- b' y" K2 x- K9 t/ K
simple. In fact, I only ever have three charts open at once, and one
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of those I could probably do away with if I wasn’t so lazy. These all: N; b( H0 c1 M2 r8 R3 j; y! H/ W# u) ]) S8 j% x
4 n. F$ p) X5 |' N& L3 _1 Bfit onto a single screen, with room to spare. Not only do I not use multiple screens, I actually trade off a laptop computer. There are a few reasons why this is a really good idea, which I won’t dwell on here, but the point is that even on a 15” screen I have more than enough room to see everything I need to.
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7 [) x, y% g7 N& }' D& q. C" Y- g3 P' Z( g, Z还记得我在前面说过，使事情简单是成功的重点？那么很多显示器、大量的图形当然不符合我简单的思想了。事实上，我就开三个图形，如果犯懒了，我很可能还要关掉一个。所有这些安置在一个显示屏上，还有空余。我不仅不用多种显示屏，事实上我还换成便携式电脑。我不关注这些东西为什么一个好主意，我没有多少理由，但是重点是即使在一个15寸的屏幕上，我也有足够的空间看我需要的一切。
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6 ]- k) a: f% X8 r% U& V3 nThe charts I use are about as simple as you can get. I only use one
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7 _+ [% S/ ]  a3 o5 ]* windicator - a single moving average - to help with exits.
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  V; r, z! q1 y- {! }, _我用的图表尽我所能的简单。我就用一个指标——移动平均线——帮助判断出场。+ d" }' n5 w% {& U- g4 j
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. t3 @: V" r$ T' EI know lots of trading teachers love to teach you about indicators.2 X9 R! c7 K! W6 C
  h1 p- Y: L6 P4 b3 V; r: ?6 O, E) D  N# AI’m not sure if it’s because they think it makes them look clever, or" Q, w$ u! E' p* Y1 D( X5 O7 e( \1 E  g2 t  |* F4 n, F; V# t/ m4 l  |
if it’s because it fills up space in their books. Whatever it is, there’s one really important thing to remember:' t# m0 B- {. l! w0 K* Y/ v" L5 Z3 F2 }# U* N; E$ K8 t6 \6 q7 g0 Y# n
我知道很多交易的老师热衷于教你各种的指标。我不知道是不是因为他们认为它能使他们看起来很聪明，还是因为按他们的看法指标填满了屏幕的空白。无论如何，有一个重点记住:
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! L7 t6 q# ?0 S0 J. I6 {  ]  b) T. sNearly all indicators are calculations done on the price in the past.
! O6 K4 i. W6 [$ v) K& n' b; B. E' F  S, s, P2 j6 P2 S) E' m3 s; HTherefore by definition, all indicators are telling you what already
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happened.
6 I3 Q* V+ s( I; o- y3 L7 P: Q- @  y2 X, v: W$ t0 w* K% _) [5 \6 D8 U几乎所有的指标是用过去的价格计算出来的。因此很明显，所有的指标是在告诉你已经发生的。
# ^" e4 a. w( ?" C! I0 d4 D; w3 x& w! O$ S% ^+ n8 y# K6 [8 j$ L+ L. K6 }$ Y7 lNow it seems pretty clear to me that if indicators are summarizing. J$ }& v) [, P9 v( |  n9 S  M4 q! D$ n! O9 V" ~9 T2 @8 r% J- ^
past price information in a few different ways, we can figure out
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* ?$ {- }6 [/ x6 p( C; ~$ @% y: ?the same information ourselves just by looking at the price.7 \: @# _* w& \, ?" B5 Y0 F6 @0 K" A8 G. H+ ]" u, `! v, n$ R, B: u# ~! o* B  s; x
This is how I trade - by looking directly at the prices. It takes a  K0 k& g% a1 W  Q+ g  u, b5 o" H( @- L
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little bit of practice, but then so does learning to read any2 n% |8 J, M0 i/ S; O9 t& P# i; V' c* W/ |& i3 C  i3 w: m1 M$ P- W- m
indicator.
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现在看起来很明显了，如果指标是用不同的方法通过过去的价格计算的，那么我们靠观察价格也能可到相同的信息。这就是我交易的方式——依靠直接观察价格。这样几乎没什么训练，但是这样做胜过读任何指标。$ c& ?6 M  Q6 p# u
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The advantage with spending that practice time learning to read' J- O2 F6 m! @$ A7 s# P: b# e1 w# D9 Q- s7 |$ f0 y0 }. C" Q4 Y5 W# S+ m" E( A5 R! n2 u% s" L+ e
prices is that once you’ve got the hang of it, you can read any6 ~: t) i3 r, w9 i
8 z' [5 L( u. c- B& X/ r' T! x, f$ E0 n- C% s) g; ~: q4 w0 Pchart, in any timescale, at any time. You’re not dependent on+ j5 \  x- K/ T! I" |) [% z& l1 d% p2 [: G9 M
3 X7 z" w8 j' |) V  F% Fsome arbitrary calculation (indicator) that may only work under
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7 ]* J( E; X0 Ocertain market conditions.) b* {, z1 \7 y9 `6 U" V0 Q3 d( x6 o/ z6 E5 @7 [, l. @4 `& n/ F7 s$ a' @# X1 A* h0 @! Z% u1 @7 {/ K7 S1 G8 Z花时间学习解读价格的优势是，一旦你熟练的掌握了它，在任何时候，你都能解读在任何时间尺度下的任何图形。你就不用依赖那些在特定市场情况下有效的指标了。
$ L" E8 e6 `+ v# f; s( _  L% y3 o0 v9 u0 V4 QSo with the three charts on the screen, it’s now a case of cycling
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7 I' u4 ~* T2 L3 ^7 `% l$ Hthrough the stocks on the shortlist, and waiting for a good trade to
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9 w  t& C5 A: r) I3 Q0 v8 Mpresent itself.6 ], K1 A! J7 U6 c
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那么一个屏幕三个图，就像是把股票选好，骑着脚踏车去兜风，等着好的交易自己发生一样。" {; H5 z/ O' e  J9 |# v
+ L% _( ~! i) s8 ?5 D' ?5 V& K- j% d" G$ I6 wHow do you know what a good trade is? With a clearly designed set: w7 W9 ~2 p4 T0 C! B6 H% L/ X' C8 {% Y  Q: y! z- U: {" W' f
of rules.* y- u0 Q  ~, J. K( l2 T
$ l1 r. r7 x2 U7 _0 U, X) v6 V/ _- a! u: f, Z  p( M你认为好的交易是什么样的？一个清晰的有计划的规则。
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. z! Z  O7 `! V; N# vEvery trader should have predefined rules for when they enter and
& m% S3 J6 X# H9 a! a( W0 b) ^- X. \2 \  t1 h7 `# e& Aexit a trade. These should be written down in a formal Trading Plan- l# O# c6 t  Q# r) r$ H( y* ~% d& h& X% y+ h& |8 J1 f6 z4 U' E/ W* w# c% ?1 b
每个交易员都应该有一个预先设定的关于什么时候进场和什么时候出场的规则。这些应该以交易计划的形式写下来。
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* t: F9 k( e" z$ h. Z& URules for entering a trade should, of course, be simple. You don’t5 Z6 f# S. c" }) W! @* c+ U0 a+ q- W1 K
# h( Q7 s3 O# O9 q! c  ^  e/ B9 `want to be watching a chart and spending too much time trying to
- }" M# G2 u) P% l# X! C- q: W+ z: T1 p2 Q7 H" N0 e/ |/ E& R1 m4 o; q- x8 `work out if it meets your very complicated entry rules or not,8 i( N3 ~) b, L5 ^- G  r* Z- i) \& x( k9 ]
: L3 k8 Q# m) d( Xbecause by the time you’ve figured it out you will have missed half
8 P0 W) I' R  }" ~  l/ D, _) t" ^" P' h' j! ^6 [% @/ D) E! @" s1 C" g$ Jthe trade! This is another reason I read just the price - it’s very$ Q. p. b- ?: I/ {7 j2 u6 ]' N3 e! d. e) u; X
& h6 G; ~" i; Y" F9 _! m9 \' Zclear to see, according to my own rules, when to enter a trade.
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进场的规则当然应该是简单的。你不想要一直盯着图形，用很多时间试着计算出它是否满足你的复杂的进场条件吧。因为在你算出来之前，你将会错过一半交易！我只解读价格的另一个原因——根据你自己的规则，什么时候进场，一目了然。; F3 m; ~, w% S+ E9 s% I( P3 ~" f2 c( j) B, B( f! p
) e. H: E5 s% c& Y, r5 X2 qThere are basically two ways of getting a good set of entry rules:* V9 x5 }/ P; g1 i( i. h8 \
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1.Develop your own. This involves a lot of trial and error, and even  n4 O* s& z3 F+ D( C8 @) I/ [- T5 N( h! }4 I. D- \2 _1 ~4 b% [" o, ]3 h
more testing.- H" x. h' ^2 `) q5 j. S
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Use someone else’s.
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5 Z7 y& U; E& R# A+ I  V' T6 ~有两个方法得到优秀的进场规则：
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发展你自己的。这需要大量的反复试验，和甚至更多的测验。
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2.用别人的。! L- {- ^$ K0 ^' E) z( C, V7 n% O. k2 @) u+ H7 y& l& B
6 f8 }  j: |8 E4 @& I$ yI highly recommend the second option, because as you’ve probably# P$ k: U* z" P! N
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gathered by now, I’m lazy, and I like to keep things simple. No
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need to reinvent the wheel! There are lots of trading books and courses out there which have tried and tested trading strategies and rules you can use.
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我强烈建议第二条，因为到现在你们已经了解了，我是一个懒人，我喜欢使事情简单点。不需要重复别人的工作！在这之外有很多你能用的有关经过测试的交易策略和规则的交易书籍和课程。
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When To Exit Your Trade/ a' F* D( F, M) Q/ u' w7 @# n/ g2 K! P$ \1 W) d
3 |$ ^$ V' D# E$ a0 l0 [, B6 [8 T什么时候出场+ w7 z* b2 t: A. ^, Y
' [) G8 M6 i$ {' L. B. d+ z+ {: n/ BExiting trades is one of the most overlooked aspects of tradingoprofitably.7 a0 V) E1 N3 P9 Y/ i( [) i# S% s7 ~/ E8 y  S* G1 f! X! H4 u( _6 W
出场是赢利交易中最容易被忽视的方面之一。' L3 `( f2 n* M2 V6 L# ~% [/ I$ ~
% Z' O" z6 X0 c9 N& K9 ^" D! `* vHaving gone to the trouble of selecting the best stocks to watch, then waited patiently to get the best entry, it makes sense to squeeze as much profit out of the trade as possible. Remember, having more winning trades than losing ones is great, but ideally we want bigger winning trades as well.* B% s& ~6 A4 `7 ~" w  y
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已经选好了最好的要观察的股票，然后耐心的等到最好的入场点，似乎看起来，这样就能得到这笔交易的最大的利润。记住，赚钱的次数比赔钱多，当然很好，但是我们还要赚的更多。: A0 w3 O0 [( W/ E4 p% |9 n
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+ K' ?" Z; E1 y* p! X2 w# G3 @5 A( M6 Q7 u+ O2 t0 L0 B6 |Choosing the best time to exit is the best way to make sure we get those big winners. And in the few cases when the trade doesn’t work out as expected (remember, there’s no holy grail always-wins system, losses are part of trading), it’s also the only way to keep the losses as small as possible.! g: j6 Z( g/ Z9 m
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选择最好的出场点能保证我们做到大赚。在一些案例中，当交易不按照预想进行（记住，没有那种神奇的长赢系统，赔钱也是交易的一部分），这也是保持最小亏损的唯一方法。/ a% ~5 h6 T5 L) c( H* y5 w, j" N0 O: Z% i( D8 B: l2 ]1 J, t9 F- d6 n5 l7 a) s
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I never let my losing trades go more than about 3 or 4 cents against me. If I trade 1000 shares, then that means a loss of no more than $30 or $40 (plus commission). Because I run the winning trades as far as possible, I’ll usually be making at least 30 cents on each winner, and often much more. So a winner trading 1000 shares might make me $300.
! v# M  `3 z& s! U$ S/ n) u0 r  `! G; ]1 C& _  \9 j6 U# C( J' Y4 ]$ x0 F0 w我在亏钱的时候，每次最多赔3到4分。如果我投1000股，也就是说我赔钱不超过30-40美元（加上手续费）。因为尽量在赢利交易中最多的赚钱，我每笔至少赢利30分，而且经常更多。因此每笔赢利的交易，我会赚300美元。9 x0 ?* [2 g1 X3 T( O) a5 n# m5 s' i/ P; q# H! K/ x0 H/ x: T+ ^' q! k& e" s0 _8 Q
In other words, if I exit properly, I can lose 90% of my trades and still make money! But because I pick easy-to-trade, highly predictable stocks, and because I enter properly, I actually win 90% or more of my trades, so make even more money.3 ?% b% f" @' m6 p) O
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换句话说，如果我在适合的时间出场，即使我90%的交易都是赔钱的，总的说我还是赚钱。但是因为我选择易于交易，高度可预见的股票，而且我在适当的时候进场，我实际上90%以上的交易都是赚钱的，因此也就赚了更多的钱。, B: S/ T- e3 k/ W; T3 f! T$ ?5 f1 E1 M& a# t0 i4 [# j) DYou can do the same, if you just follow the 3 Trading Triangle principals. It really is that simple.
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0 n# s0 P& Y$ `( D' l* c如果你只是遵循交易三角形的三个主要原则，你也可以做到。就是这么简单。 * 尊重作者劳动， 转载请注明出自出处，谢谢（司空金融网http://www.skjrw.com/)
* 详细出处参考：http://www.skjrw.com/thread-3464-1-1.html