金科签约中心电话:美国与中国：买卖双方的奇怪关系

美国与中国：买卖双方的奇怪关系

This article is by Baizhu Chen, a professor of clinical finance and business economics at USC Marshall School of Business. He is also senior researcher at the Institute of Finance and Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, chief economist of Sino-Century Capital, a venture capital firm in Shanghai, and former president of the Chinese Economists Society, and he is academic director for Marshall’s Global Executive MBA program.

      本文作者系南加州大学马歇尔商学院金融与商业经济学教授陈百助（音）。他同时还担任中国社会科学院金融研究所高级研究员、上海中国世纪投资管理公司首席经济学家、前中国留美经济学会会长、马歇尔商学院全球高级工商管理硕士课程的教务主任。

Once upon a time there were a buyer and a seller. The seller insisted on selling her product at a lower price. The buyer, strangely, was upset about paying such a low price. In fact, he was so furious that he threatened to take legal action against the seller if she refused to sell her product to him at a higher price.

      从前，有一个买家和一个卖家。卖家以低价出售产品。而买家，奇怪的是，却为如此低价而感到不快。事实上，买家非常愤怒，以至于威胁卖家如不以较高价格将产品出售给他，他将采取法律手段。

Have you ever experienced such a situation at a store? I haven’t. As a buyer, I would love to see a shop insisting on selling merchandise to me at a lower price. I have been looking for such a shop my whole life, and I am still searching. The whole premise of buyers insisting on paying higher prices is nonsensical to a rational person. If people believed in paying more rather than less, all the books of modern economics would have to be thrown out the window.

      你曾在店里遇到过这种情况吗？我没遇到过。作为买家，我很乐意商家坚持以低价把商品卖给我。这样的商家我寻找了一辈子，而且还在苦苦寻找。对于一个理性的人来说，顾客坚持高价购买产品的假设是十分荒谬的。如果人们都愿意付高价而不是求便宜的话，那么那些现代经济学的书都得扔到窗外去了。

China and America have become exactly such a seller and buyer. China, the world’s biggest seller, sells cheap Christmas ornaments, cheap iPhones, cheap Gap shirts, and cheap Nike shoes to America. All Chinese know that the same pair of Nike shoes costs less in the U.S. than in China. That is why Gap stores, Nike outlets, and Apple stores in the U.S. are all a must stop for Chinese tourists, even though their products are all made and available in China.

      中国和美国正成为这样的卖家和买家。中国，这个全球最大的卖家，正把廉价的圣诞饰品、Iphone、Gap衬衫和Nike鞋倾销到美国。中国人都知道同一双Nike鞋在美国买比在中国买更便宜。这就是为什么在美国的Gap、Nike以及Apple的专卖店成为中国游客的必经之地，即使这些产品都是中国生产也在中国销售。

We in America, on the other hand, are very unappreciative buyers. We are apparently angry at China for selling us cheap products. We accuse China of selling us cheap this and cheap that, and most of all, we are angry at China for selling us its cheap currency, called renminbi, or yuan. The United States Senate, which represents tens of millions of American consumers, recently passed a bill to pressure China to sell its currency more expensively so that we as buyers in America would have to pay higher prices for Chinese-made products.

      另一方面，我们在美国却是些“不识抬举”的买家。我们似乎对中国向我们出售廉价商品而感到愤怒。我们指责中国向我们出售这个或那个廉价商品，最重要的是，我们对中国向我们出售廉价货币（人民币或元）而感到气愤。最近，美国参议院代表亿万消费者通过一项法案，意在对中国施压促使人民币升值以使美国买家以更高的价格购买中国制造的产品。

The argument is that this is good for the U.S. economy because cheap Chinese products take away American jobs. Really? A bit of history might help. Thirty years ago, Japan was accused of taking away American jobs, because of the undervalued Japanese yen. The yen has since appreciated from 250 yen per dollar to 80 yen today. Jobs have not returned.

      这一举动的理由是，这样有利于美国经济，因为廉价中国制造抢走了美国人的就业机会。真是这样吗？回顾一下历史或许能帮我们理解这件事。30年前，由于日元被低估，日本被指责夺走了美国人的就业机会。于是日元兑换美元从彼时的250日元升值到现在的80日元。而就业机会却没有因此增加。

Three years ago, right after the U.S. presidential election, one American dollar could buy approximately 7.5 Chinese renminbi. Today, it gets less than 6.4. If we wanted to punish China for taking away our jobs with its undervalued currency, we should have done so three years ago, when the renminbi was 15% cheaper than today. Why did we have to wait three years, as the renminbi became more expensive, to pass a bill at a time when the next election is entering campaign stage? That is election year politics, plain and simple.

      三年前，就在美国总统大选前，1美元还可以兑换7.5元人民币。今天，1美元还换不到6.4元人民币。如果我们想借人民币被低估争抢我们就业岗位之机来惩罚中国的话，我们早在三年前就应该这么干了，那时人民币还比现在便宜15%。为什么我们等了三年，等人民币升值了，而且恰逢换界选举之际才通过么这么一个法案？这就是选举年的政治手腕，就这么简单。

Our senators tell us that making Chinese currency more expensive will be good for China. China currently consumes only 35% of the goods and services it produces annually, while America consumes more than 70%t of U.S. gross domestic product. Forcing China to appreciate its currency, the argument runs, will enable the Chinese to consume more beef, corn, and gasoline, and the Chinese will be happier. To be honest, I am confused here. I thought elected officials were supposed to represent my interests and the interests of millions of American families trying to make ends meet by relying on inexpensive Chinese products. I didn’t know U.S. Senators were supposed to represent the interests of Chinese consumers. It is up to the Chinese government to make the Chinese happier. When billions of Chinese jump forcefully onto the consumption wagon, the prices of goods will become higher for struggling American families. Senators, be careful of what you wish for.

      我们的参议员告诉我们，让人民币升值对中国也有好处。中国国内消费仅占其国内生产总值的35%，与些同时美国国内消费占其GDP的70%以上。逼迫中国对人民币升值，如果法案施行，这意味着中将消费更多的牛肉、玉米及汽油，从而使中国人民更加幸福。说实话，对此我很困惑。我以为民选官员应该代表我的利益以及亿万依赖中国廉价商品努力实现收支平衡的家庭。我不知道美国参议员还代表着中国消费者的利益。让中国人民本应是中国政府的责任啊。当亿万中国人加入消费大军，物价的上涨将使挣扎的美国家庭更加难以承受。参议员们，请三思而后行啊。

I am an economics professor at a great American institution, and I was educated at great American universities. Watching Washington making policies based on “Washingtonomics” really makes my head spin. Sometimes I wonder if I should check into an economics re-education camp to retrain myself. But as an American buyer, I really like China. I wish all economics textbooks could be rewritten so that all buyers and sellers would behave exactly like America and China. That would be a wonderful world!

      我是美国知名学院的经济学教授，我曾在美国著名大学接受教育。看到华盛顿基于华盛顿经济学制定政策真的让我很头痛。有时我在想，我是不是应该参加一个经济补习班进修一下。但作为一个美国买家，我真的很喜欢中国。我希望所有的经济学教科书重新改写，以使所有的买家卖家都像美国和中国一样。那样世界该多美好啊！