外滩陈毅广场:日本对华外交乐观论的终结-578-

MICHAEL AUSLIN

上周，野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)当选日本新一任首相，摆在他面前的是令人绝望的国内形势。今年3月11日发生的地震、海啸和核危机对日本经济构成三重打击。日本的政治体系似乎也陷入瘫痪，野田已经是五年里的第六任首相。日本老龄化问题日益严重，竞争力也在逐步丧失，整个日本社会弥漫着厌倦情绪。与在他之前几任一样，野田能否坐稳首相这个位子也取决于他是否能处理好这些艰巨的挑战。

不过，野田的任务不仅仅是制定好国内政策和经济政策。上任伊始，他的外交政策观点和对中国的批评也受到了同等关注。野田最近在著名杂志《文艺春秋》(Bungei Shunju)月刊上撰文，用“强横”来形容中国外交政策，并称中国军备的迅速扩充不仅令日本，而且令整个地区都非常担忧。另外，野田内阁新外相、47岁的玄叶光一郎(Koichiro Gemba)也警告中国应在全球政治和经济政策方面公平行事，他的言论引起强烈反响。

Getty Images东京靖国神社触怒亚洲邻国，让日本陷入孤立。上述态度标志着执政党日本民主党(Democratic Party of Japan)及前多数党自由民主党(Liberal Democratic Party)所奉行的亲近中国的政策最终告一段落。中国经济自二十世纪八十年代开始腾飞之后，日本一直在小心翼翼地平衡日中和日美关系，一面与中国政府打造更紧密的联系，一面与美国保持牢固的同盟关系。和美国政府一样，日本政府也寻求从中国经济增长中获益，同时还要提防中国日益增长的军事实力和政治影响力。

去年中日关系趋于紧张，这是日本政府改变外交基调的一个明显原因。对中日关系破坏最大的当属去年秋季两国围绕尖阁列岛(Senkaku Islands, 中国称钓鱼岛──译注)问题展开的对抗。日本海上保安厅(Japanese Coast Guard)在争议水域逮捕了一名中国渔船船长。在此后的几周里，两国外交关系几乎完全破裂，并展开了针锋相对的报复行动。中国在继续向建立亚洲头号军事强国的目标迈进的过程中，第五代隐形战斗轰炸机的推出以及第一艘航空母舰近日的试航进一步刺激了日本。

外界一度预计日本民主党会大幅改善对华关系。民主党最有影响力的创始人之一、目前丑闻缠身的小泽一郎(Ichiro Ozawa)曾率领庞大的代表团（有时多达几百人）访问中国，高调展示对华关系的改善。第一任民主党首相鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)也曾提议建立由日本、中国和韩国主导的东亚共同体(East Asian Community) 。鉴于中国是日本最重要的贸易伙伴，日本理所当然会做出这些外交努力，这也是富有远见的行动。

然而，现在日本很少有人在谈及中日关系时抱以如此乐观的态度了。日本人都不愿与中国发生任何形式的冲突，不希望中日关系对立的态势加剧，但也不愿被迫迎合中国的欲望。日本和美国的态度都发生了转变，他们越来越担心，随着实力的增强，中国不再会自觉遵守国际准则。中国反复宣称对整个南中国海(South China Sea)拥有主权，再加上时有小型舰队在日本列岛之间大摇大摆地航行，这些都加剧了东京方面的不安情绪。防卫政策制定者已开始公开讨论要关注日本的“西南壁垒”（从九州延伸到台湾的岛链）。同时，日本政界还在考虑与澳大利亚和印度等国建立更加紧密的关系。

与此同时，日本安全的基石依然是与美国的同盟关系。外界认为野田是日美同盟的坚定支持者，他还说过，日本应该摆脱宪法第九条的束缚。日本宪法第九条规定，日本不得以“武力威胁或行使武力作为解决国际争端的手段。”

此外，野田还说他并不认为二战中日本甲级战犯犯下了战争罪，并引发了不少争议。野田的种种言论触怒了中国。中国报纸曾发表措辞严厉的社论，警告野田不要参拜供奉战犯的靖国神社，并要求他承认中国对尖阁列岛的主权。同样让北京方面感到担忧的是，野田可能正在寻求修复过去两年因驻日美军基地搬迁争议而出现松动的美日同盟关系。

所有这一切都表明中日关系又碰到一道坎。由于国内问题削弱了日本的国力，日本现在更加担心中国的一些举动会削减日本在亚洲的影响力或者限制日本在东亚水域的回旋余地。中日双方激烈的口水战经过一段时间可能会逐渐平息，但幕后的较量和相互提防却不会停止。

对野田来说，这的确是个令人头疼的问题。对华关系的处理稍有不当，就会受到反对党议员的批评，甚至会招致来自党内议员的诟病。日本需要和每一个贸易伙伴搞好关系，虽然外界认为野田和玄叶支持日本加入跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系(Trans-Pacific Partnership)谈判，但未来几十年中国对日本经济的健康发展仍然至关重要。

从更宏观的角度来说，野田无法承受日本进一步孤立带来的后果。除中国以外，韩国也对野田有关日本战犯的言论表示不满。另一方面，美国也已经对日本频繁更换领导人感到厌烦，在驻日美军搬迁问题上也越来越没有耐心。野田必须极为小心地平衡所有这些压力。否则，他也许会让日本与邻国及盟友的关系比过去更加疏远。

（Auslin，美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)日本研究部负责人，华尔街日报网站专栏作家。）

MICHAEL AUSLIN

Yoshihiko Noda took power in Tokyo last week because of Japan's desperate domestic situation. Its economy has been battered by the March 11 triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. Its political system seems paralyzed, with Mr. Noda becoming the sixth prime minister in five years. It is aging and losing competitiveness. And a general ennui is creeping through society. Like his predecessors, Mr. Noda will stand or fall on how well he manages to juggle these daunting challenges.

Yet Mr. Noda will not be only a domestic- and economic-policy leader. In his first days, perhaps as much attention has been paid to Mr. Noda's foreign policy views and criticisms of China. Mr. Noda recently wrote an essay in the prestigious Bungei Shunju periodical, in which he called Chinese foreign policy 'high-handed' and stated that its rapid military buildup was of 'great concern not only for Japan but the entire region.' Moreover, his new foreign minister, 47-year old Koichiro Gemba, has caused waves by similarly warning China to 'play fair' in global political and economic policy.

These attitudes mark the final nail in the coffin of China engagement pursued by both the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and the former majority Liberal Democratic Party. Since China's economic growth spurt began in the 1980s, Japan has sought to tread a careful line between forging closer ties with Beijing and maintaining its tight alliance relationship with the United States. Like Washington, Tokyo has sought to benefit from China's economic growth while hedging against its rising military strength and political influence.

One obvious reason for the change in tone from Tokyo is that the past year has strained Sino-Japanese ties. Most damaging was the face-off over the Senkaku Islands last fall, in which the Japanese Coast Guard arrested the captain of a Chinese fishing vessel in the disputed waters. An almost total rupture in diplomatic relations and tit-for-tat retaliation dragged on for weeks. China's unveiling of a fifth-generation stealth fighter-bomber and the recent launching of its first aircraft carrier have further ruffled Japanese feathers, as Beijing continues its march toward building the most powerful Asian military.

The DPJ was once expected to dramatically improve relations with China. One of its most powerful founders, the now disgraced Ichiro Ozawa, had led large delegations, sometimes numbering in the hundreds, to China, openly proclaiming better ties. Yukio Hatoyama, the first DPJ premier, also proposed an East Asian Community, in which Japan, China and South Korea would take the lead. Such outreach seemed not only natural but far-sighted, given that China is Japan's most important trading partner.

Few in Japan today talk in such optimistic terms about China. None want a clash of any kind, nor a more confrontational relationship, but neither are Japanese willing to be forced into accommodating Chinese desires. Mirroring the change in American attitudes, there is rather a growing pessimism that China will willingly adopt international norms of behavior as it becomes stronger. Its repeated claims over all of the South China Sea and ostentatious sailing of a small flotilla between Japanese islands all add to a deepening sense of unease in Tokyo. Defense planners have openly started talking about focusing on Japan's 'southwestern wall,' the string of islands stretching from Kyushu to Taiwan, and Japanese politicians muse about closer relations with Australia and India, for example.

Meanwhile, the bedrock of Japan's security remains the alliance with the United States. Mr. Noda also is believed to be a strong supporter of the alliance, and has been quoted as saying that Japan should do away with its infamous Article 9 of the Constitution that denies the country the right to have military forces for 'war or the settlement of international disputes.'

This, along with his controversial statement that he does not believe Japan's Class A war criminals of World War II were guilty of war crimes, has raised hackles in China. Strong editorials in Chinese newspapers have warned Mr. Noda not to visit Yasukuni Shrine, where the spirits of those war criminals are said to be enshrined, and to accept Chinese claims over the Senkaku Islands. Beijing appears as worried about Mr. Noda's views as of the possibility of Tokyo and Washington reviving their alliance, which has been rocked the past two years by disputes over rebasing U.S. forces inside Japan.

All this means that China and Japan are headed into another rough patch. With Japan weakened by domestic problems, it is even warier about Chinese moves to reduce Tokyo's influence in Asia or its maneuvering room in East Asian waters. The heated rhetoric will likely die down after a while, but the behind-the-scenes jockeying for position and the wary looks toward one another will not cease.

For Mr. Noda, this is a headache he does not need. Any mishandling of relations with China will result in criticism by opposition lawmakers, and perhaps from those in his own party as well. Japan needs every trade partner it can get now, and while both Mr. Noda and Mr. Gemba are believed to support Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade negotiations, China will remain crucial to Japanese economic health for decades to come.

More generally, Mr. Noda cannot afford to isolate Japan any further. Not only China, but South Korea has registered its objections to his views on Japanese war criminals. On the other side of the ledger, Washington is weary of dealing with revolving Japanese leaders and growing impatient to see movement on relocating U.S. forces in Japan. Mr. Noda will have to delicately balance all these pressures. Otherwise he will risk leaving Japan even more distant from its neighbors and friends than before.

Mr. Auslin is the director of Japan studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for WSJ.com.